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Explaining sectoral discrepancies between national and provincial statistics in China

Author

Listed:
  • Ma, Ben
  • Song, Guojun
  • Zhang, Lei
  • Sonnenfeld, David A.

Abstract

This paper examines sectoral contributions to discrepancies between China's national aggregate statistical values and the sum of provincial figures. In institutional terms, the paper then explores the sources of principally sectoral discrepancies. We find that the industrial sector has been the major contributor to discrepancies in both gross domestic product (GDP) and total energy consumption in recent years. Technical aspects such as statistical coverage, data collection method, and double-counting cannot explain the discrepancy. For the industrial sector, limited data accessibility undermines external checks and balances from the general public. As the primary bodies in collecting industrial data, the Provincial Bureaus of Statistics (PBSs) are not subject to effective internal checks and balances from other governmental divisions. To out-compete counterparts and get promoted, provincial leaders have explicit incentives to overstate provincial GDP, with industrial added value being the first statistic to be affected. This dynamic further extends to industrial energy consumption, which is over-reported as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Ma, Ben & Song, Guojun & Zhang, Lei & Sonnenfeld, David A., 2014. "Explaining sectoral discrepancies between national and provincial statistics in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 353-369.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:30:y:2014:i:c:p:353-369
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2014.07.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Wei Chen & Xilu Chen & Chang-Tai Hsieh & Zheng Song, 2019. "A Forensic Examination of China's National Accounts," NBER Working Papers 25754, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Index decomposition; Institutional arrangements; Data discrepancy; Gross domestic product (GDP); Energy consumption;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • O43 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy

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