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S-Curve dynamics of trade between U.S. and China

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  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen
  • Ratha, Artatrana

Abstract

A newly emerging area in international economics looks at the cross-correlation coefficient between past and future values of the trade balance and movement in the current exchange rate as a way of analyzing the response of the trade balance to exchange rate changes. Since the cross-correlation function follows a symmetric pattern, it comes under the heading of the S-Curve. Previous studies have considered the experience of developed and developing countries with the S-Curve, excluding China. In this paper we consider the Chinese experience. We show that when aggregate trade data between China and the U.S. are considered, there is no evidence of the S-Curve. However, when the data are disaggregated by commodity, the S-Curve is supported in almost 50% of the close to 100 industries considered. Furthermore, it appears that commodity types do not have any influence in determining the existence of an S-Curve pattern.

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  • Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Ratha, Artatrana, 2010. "S-Curve dynamics of trade between U.S. and China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 212-223, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:21:y:2010:i:2:p:212-223
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Mohsen Bahmani-oskooee & Hadise Fariditavana, 2014. "Do Exchange Rate Changes have Symmetric Effect on the S-Curve?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 164-173.
    2. Amit Ghosh, 2012. "Is there an S-curve relationship between U.S. trade balance and terms of trade? An analysis across industries and countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 32(1), pages 325-337.
    3. Nabeela KOUSAR* & Muhammad Rizwan YASEEN** & Imran QAISER***, 2017. "THE S-CURVES DYNAMICS OF TRADE: The Case Study of Pakistan," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 27(1), pages 121-138.
    4. Bhattarai, Keshab & Mallick, Sushanta, 2013. "Impact of China's currency valuation and labour cost on the US in a trade and exchange rate model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 40-59.
    5. Abdurrahman Korkmaz & Sabiha Korkmaz, 2013. "An alternative consideration for the testing procedure of the S-curve hypothesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 627-634, August.
    6. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Sova, Anamaria & Sova, Robert, 2015. "Trade flows and trade specialisation: The case of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 261-273.
    7. Hurley, Dene T. & Papanikolaou, Nikolaos, 2021. "Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) analysis of U.S.-China commodity trade dynamics," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 454-467.
    8. Sareer Ahmad & Javed Iqbal & Misbah Nosheen & Mark Wohar, 2023. "Dynamics of the asymmetric S-curve between Pakistan and Japan," International Journal of Economic Policy Studies, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 551-561, August.
    9. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Dan Xi, 2015. "A note on the S-curve dynamics of commodity trade between Brazil and the United States," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 52(1), pages 79-94, May.
    10. Dene T. Hurley & Nikolaos Papanikolaou, 2018. "An Investigation of China‐U.S. Bilateral Trade and Exchange Rate Changes Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 37(2), pages 162-179, June.

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    S-Curve Commodity trade China U.S.;

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