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The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Canadian Economy

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  • Luiggi Donayre

    (Department of Economics, University of Minnesota - Duluth, 1318 Kirby Drive, Duluth, Minnesota, United States)

  • Neil A. Wilmot

    (Department of Economics, University of Minnesota - Duluth, 1318 Kirby Drive, Duluth, Minnesota, United States)

Abstract

A threshold vector autoregression (TVAR) is estimated to study the effects of oil price shocks on Canadian output and price level. While much of the literature has investigated potential asymmetric effects of positive and negative oil price shocks within a linear vector autoregression (VAR), we do so within a nonlinear VAR. Further, we extend the analysis to consider the correlation between asymmetries associated with the business cycle phase and size/sign asymmetries. Positive oil price shocks are found to have a stronger effect on output than negative oil price shocks. This asymmetry is significant in recessions, but lessened during expansions. The results also suggest that the reduction in inflation due to a negative oil price shock is larger than the increase in inflation following a positive oil price shock, especially during periods of low output growth. Yet, neither inflation nor output growth seems to vary disproportionately with the size of the oil price shock. In general, the results are robust to the ordering of the variables in the VAR process and to the time window over which the net oil price change is computed

Suggested Citation

  • Luiggi Donayre & Neil A. Wilmot, 2016. "The Asymmetric Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Canadian Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 167-182.
    • Handle: RePEc:eco:journ2:2016-02-4
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    6. Antonio J., Garzón & Luis A., Hierro, 2022. "Inflation, oil prices and exchange rates. The Euro’s dampening effect," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 130-146.
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    8. Karunanithi Kriskkumar & Niaz Ahmad Mohd Naseem & Wan Ngah Wan Azman-Saini, 2022. "Investigating the Asymmetric Effect of Oil Price on the Economic Growth in Malaysia: Applying Augmented ARDL and Nonlinear ARDL Techniques," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(1), pages 21582440221, March.
    9. Ligia Topan & Miguel Jerez & Sonia Sotoca, 2020. "The impact of oil prices on products groups inflation: is the effect asymmetric?," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2020-02, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    10. Bigerna, Simona, 2023. "Energy price shocks, exchange rates and inflation nexus," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    11. Knotek, Edward S. & Zaman, Saeed, 2021. "Asymmetric responses of consumer spending to energy prices: A threshold VAR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    12. Ganepola, Chanaka N. & Shubita, Moade & Lee, Lillian, 2023. "The electric shock: Causes and consequences of electricity prices in the United Kingdom," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
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    14. Evgenidis, Anastasios, 2018. "Do all oil price shocks have the same impact? Evidence from the euro area," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 150-155.
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    16. Garzon, Antonio J. & Hierro, Luis A., 2021. "Asymmetries in the transmission of oil price shocks to inflation in the eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    17. Rasheed O. Alao & Abdulkareem Alhassan & Saheed Alao & Ifedolapo O. Olanipekun & Godwin O. Olasehinde-Williams & Ojonugwa Usman, 2023. "Symmetric and asymmetric GARCH estimations of the impact of oil price uncertainty on output growth: evidence from the G7," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 1-14, December.
    18. OSMANI, Md Ataul Gani & PANAIT, Mirela & APOSTU, Simona Andreea & JANJUA, Laeeq Razzak, 2022. "Are There Any Asymmetric Responses Of Oil Price Shocks To Gdp Growth? A Review Of Literature," Journal of Financial and Monetary Economics, Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 10(1), pages 276-283, October.
    19. Zulfigarov, Farid & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2020. "The impact of oil price changes on selected macroeconomic indicators in Azerbaijan," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(4).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Net Oil Price Increase; Asymmetry; Vector Threshold Autoregressions; Nonlinear Impulse Response Functions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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