IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-13-00032.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Trade openness, growth, and informality: Panel VAR evidence from OECD economies

Author

Listed:
  • Serdar Birinci

    (Bogazici University)

Abstract

This paper analyzes empirically the linkages between trade openness, economic growth, and the size of the informal economy. I employ panel VAR techniques in a quarterly panel data set composed of 12 advanced economies over the period from 1964:1 to 2010:4 allowing bi-directional interaction between the variables in the system in order to address the endogeneity problem. The results provide evidence that there is a positive bi-directional relationship between GDP growth and trade openness. Second, fluctuations of GDP growth are explained by the size of the informal economy, while the impact of GDP growth on the size of the informal economy is not found to be robust with respect to change in VAR order. Moreover, the size of the informal economy affects GDP growth more than openness, and the causality from openness to GDP growth is slightly stronger than the causality from GDP growth to openness. Finally, there is no conclusive, robust evidence regarding the interaction between the size of the informal economy and trade openness.

Suggested Citation

  • Serdar Birinci, 2013. "Trade openness, growth, and informality: Panel VAR evidence from OECD economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 694-705.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2013/Volume33/EB-13-V33-I1-P66.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Yanikkaya, Halit, 2003. "Trade openness and economic growth: a cross-country empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 57-89, October.
    2. David H. Romer & Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "Does Trade Cause Growth?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 379-399, June.
    3. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    4. Koujianou Goldberg, Pinelopi & Pavcnik, Nina, 2003. "The response of the informal sector to trade liberalization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 463-496, December.
    5. Edwards, Sebastian, 1998. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-398, March.
    6. Thomas Gries & Margarete Redlin, 2012. "Trade Openness and Economic Growth: A Panel Causality Analysis," Working Papers CIE 52, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.
    7. Francisco Rodríguez & Dani Rodrik, 2001. "Trade Policy and Economic Growth: A Skeptic's Guide to the Cross-National Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2000, Volume 15, pages 261-338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Chang, Roberto & Kaltani, Linda & Loayza, Norman V., 2009. "Openness can be good for growth: The role of policy complementarities," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 33-49, September.
    9. Loayza, Norman V., 1996. "The economics of the informal sector: a simple model and some empirical evidence from Latin America," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 129-162, December.
    10. Norbert Fiess & Marco Fugazza, 2008. "Trade Liberalisation and Informality: New stylized facts," Working Papers 2008_34, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    11. Kaddour Hadri, 2000. "Testing for stationarity in heterogeneous panel data," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161.
    12. Jung, Woo S. & Marshall, Peyton J., 1985. "Exports, growth and causality in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-12.
    13. Arellano, Manuel & Bover, Olympia, 1995. "Another look at the instrumental variable estimation of error-components models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 29-51, July.
    14. Prabirjit Sarkar, 2008. "Trade Openness and Growth: Is There Any Link?," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 763-785, September.
    15. Ceyhun Elgin & Oguz Oztunali, 2012. "Shadow Economies around the World: Model Based Estimates," Working Papers 2012/05, Bogazici University, Department of Economics.
    16. Andreas Buehn & Friedrich Schneider, 2012. "Shadow economies around the world: novel insights, accepted knowledge, and new estimates," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 19(1), pages 139-171, February.
    17. Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
    18. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
    19. Massenot, Baptiste & Straub, Stéphane, 2011. "Informal Sector and Economic Growth: The Supply of Credit Channel," TSE Working Papers 11-254, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    20. Harris, Richard D. F. & Tzavalis, Elias, 1999. "Inference for unit roots in dynamic panels where the time dimension is fixed," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 201-226, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aziz N. Berdiev & James W. Saunoris, 2019. "On the Relationship Between Income Inequality and the Shadow Economy," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 45(2), pages 224-249, April.
    2. Abeer Elshennawy & Dirk Willenbockel, 2014. "Trade Liberalization and the Costs and Benefits of Informality an Intertemporal General Equilibrium Model for Egypt," Working Papers 888, Economic Research Forum, revised Dec 2014.
    3. Afonso, Oscar & Neves, Pedro Cunha & Pinto, Tiago, 2020. "The non-observed economy and economic growth: A meta-analysis," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(1).
    4. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2014. "Temporal causal relationship between stock market capitalization, trade openness and real GDP: evidence from Thailand," MPRA Paper 59652, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Imamoglu, Hatice, 2017. "Estimating the roles of financial sector development and international trade openness in underground economies: Evidence from the European Union," Economics Discussion Papers 2017-50, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    6. Salinas, Aldo & Ortiz, Cristian & Changoluisa, Javier & Muffatto, Moreno, 2023. "Testing three views about the determinants of informal economy: New evidence at global level and by country groups using the CS-ARDL approach," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 438-455.
    7. Berdiev, Aziz N. & Saunoris, James W., 2016. "Financial development and the shadow economy: A panel VAR analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 197-207.
    8. Aristophane Djeufack Dongmo & Paloma Mbengono Coralie & Manuela Chetue Komguep & Ulrich Kembeng Tchinda, 2023. "Urbanization, informal economy, economic growth and CO2 emissions in African countries: a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) model approach," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 35-63, April.
    9. Pablo Duarte, 2017. "The relationship between GDP and the size of the informal economy: empirical evidence for Spain," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1409-1421, June.
    10. Isaac Ketu & Arsene Mouongue Kelly & Jules-Eric Tchapchet Tchouto, 2024. "Does economic complexity reduce the size of the shadow economy in African countries?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-27, January.
    11. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2014. "Temporal causal relationship between stock market capitalization, trade openness and real GDP: evidence from Thailand," MPRA Paper 60623, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Iyke Bernard Njindan, 2017. "Does Trade Openness Matter for Economic Growth in the CEE Countries?," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 17(1), pages 3-24, March.
    2. Navaratnam Ravinthirakumaran, 2014. "Applicability of Openness-led Growth Hypothesis in Sri Lanka," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 15(2), pages 241-263, September.
    3. Iti Vyas, 2020. "Whether the Economic Growth of India is Trade Openness Led?," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 8(1), pages 38-53.
    4. Jun, Sangjoon, 2015. "The Nexus between FDI and Growth in the SAARC Member Countries," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 19(1), pages 39-70, March.
    5. Harrison, Ann E. & Rodriguez-Clare, Andres, 2009. "Trade, Foreign Investment, and Industrial Policy," MPRA Paper 15561, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna & Paul N. Acha-Anyi, 2021. "The Openness Hypothesis in the Context of Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Moderating Role of Trade Dynamics on FDI," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(4), pages 336-359, July.
    7. T. Gries & M. Redlin, 2020. "Trade and economic development: global causality and development- and openness-related heterogeneity," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 923-944, October.
    8. Herzer, Dierk, 2013. "Cross-Country Heterogeneity and the Trade-Income Relationship," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 194-211.
    9. Simplice A. Asongu & Joseph Nnanna & Vanessa S. Tchamyou, 2020. "Finance, Institutions and Private Investment in Africa," Working Papers of the African Governance and Development Institute. 20/080, African Governance and Development Institute..
    10. Ben Atta, Oussama & Chort, Isabelle & Senne, Jean Noël, 2022. "Immigration, integration, and the informal economy in OECD countries," GLO Discussion Paper Series 1197, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    11. Olivier Peron & Serge Rey, 2012. "Trade and convergence of per capita income in the Indian Ocean Zone, 1950–2008," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 49(3), pages 657-683, December.
    12. Sinem Pınar Gürel & Aykut Lenger, 2016. "The Nonlinear Analysis of External Dynamics on Economic Growth: The Case of Turkey," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 9(1), pages 57-68, April.
    13. Marilyne Huchet†Bourdon & Chantal Le Mouël & Mariana Vijil, 2018. "The relationship between trade openness and economic growth: Some new insights on the openness measurement issue," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(1), pages 59-76, January.
    14. Alam, Md. Mahmudul & Murad, Md. Wahid, 2020. "The impacts of economic growth, trade openness and technological progress on renewable energy use in organization for economic co-operation and development countries," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 382-390.
    15. Jakob B. Madsen, 2009. "Trade Barriers, Openness, and Economic Growth," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 76(2), pages 397-418, October.
    16. Klaus Wälde & Christina Wood, 2004. "The empirics of trade and growth: where are the policy recommendations?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 275-292, January.
    17. Monojit Chatterji & Sushil Mohan & Sayantan Ghosh Dastidar, 2014. "Relationship Between Trade Openness And Economic Growth Of India: A Time Series Analysis," Journal of Academic Research in Economics, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Accounting and Financial Management Constanta, vol. 6(1 (March)), pages 45-69.
    18. Musleh-Ud Din & Ejaz Ghani & Omer Siddique, 2003. "Openness and Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 795-807.
    19. Cosmas S. Mbogela, 2019. "An Empirical Examination on Trade Openness and Economic Growth Nexus in Africa," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(1), pages 1-15.
    20. Thomas Gries & Margarete Redlin, 2012. "Trade Openness and Economic Growth: A Panel Causality Analysis," Working Papers CIE 52, Paderborn University, CIE Center for International Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    informal sector; openness; growth; panel VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00032. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.