IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-06f30004.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Developing and Emerging Market Economies

Author

Listed:
  • Mario Cerrato

    (London Metropolitan University)

  • Nick Sarantis

    (London Metropolitan University)

Abstract

We provide evidence on nonlinear mean reversion in the real exchange rates of developing and emerging market economies, using recently developed nonlinear unit root tests and a unique set of monthly data on black market exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario Cerrato & Nick Sarantis, 2006. "Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Evidence from Developing and Emerging Market Economies," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 6(7), pages 1-14.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-06f30004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/pubs/EB/2006/Volume6/EB-06F30004A.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48.
    2. Kapetanios, George & Shin, Yongcheol & Snell, Andy, 2003. "Testing for a unit root in the nonlinear STAR framework," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 112(2), pages 359-379, February.
    3. Taylor, Mark P & Peel, David A & Sarno, Lucio, 2001. "Nonlinear Mean-Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: Toward a Solution to the Purchasing Power Parity Puzzles," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 42(4), pages 1015-1042, November.
    4. Cerrato, Mario & Nicholas Sarantis, 2003. "Does the Purchasing Power Parity Hold in Emerging Markets? Evidence from Black Market Exchange Rates," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 40, Royal Economic Society.
    5. Georgios Chortareas & George Kapetanios, 2004. "The Yen Real Exchange Rate may be Stationary after all: Evidence from Non‐linear Unit‐root Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(1), pages 113-131, February.
    6. Sollis, Robert & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 2002. "Tests for Symmetric and Asymmetric Nonlinear Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(3), pages 686-700, August.
    7. Michael, Panos & Nobay, A Robert & Peel, David A, 1997. "Transactions Costs and Nonlinear Adjustment in Real Exchange Rates: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(4), pages 862-879, August.
    8. Mr. Gene L. Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2003. "Asymmetric Adjustment and Nonlinear Dynamics in Real Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 2003/159, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Baum, Christopher F. & Barkoulas, John T. & Caglayan, Mustafa, 2001. "Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity in the post-Bretton Woods era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 379-399, June.
    10. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-5.
    11. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
    12. Gautam Goswami & Milind Shrikhande & Liuren Wu, 2002. "A Dynamic Equilibrium Model of Real Exchange Rates with General Transaction Costs," Finance 0207016, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Sercu, Piet & Uppal, Raman & Van Hulle, Cynthia, 1995. "The Exchange Rate in the Presence of Transaction Costs: Implications for Tests of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1309-1319, September.
    14. Venus Khim-Sen Liew & Terence Tai-Leung Chong & Kian-Ping Lim, 2003. "The inadequacy of linear autoregressive model for real exchange rates: empirical evidence from Asian economies," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(12), pages 1387-1392.
    15. Dumas, Bernard, 1992. "Dynamic Equilibrium and the Real Exchange Rate in a Spatially Separated World," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 153-180.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Maican, Florin G. & Sweeney, Richard J., 2013. "Real exchange rate adjustment in European transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 907-926.
    2. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Ali M. Kutan & Su Zhou, 2008. "Do Real Exchange Rates Follow a Nonlinear Mean Reverting Process in Developing Countries?," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 74(4), pages 1049-1062, April.
    3. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2009. "Purchasing Power Parity In Less‐Developed And Transition Economies: A Review Paper," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(4), pages 617-658, September.
    4. Orlando, Giuseppe & Bufalo, Michele, 2022. "Modelling bursts and chaos regularization in credit risk with a deterministic nonlinear model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    5. Dilem Yıldırım, 2016. "Empirical Investigation of Purchasing Power Parity for Turkey: Evidence from Recent Nonlinear Unit Root Tests," ERC Working Papers 1604, ERC - Economic Research Center, Middle East Technical University, revised Apr 2016.
    6. Kuswanto, Heri & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2009. "Testing for Long Memory Against ESTAR Nonlinearities," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-427, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    7. Kamrul Hassan & Ruhul Salim, 2011. "The linkage between relative population growth and purchasing power parity," International Journal of Development Issues, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 10(2), pages 154-169, July.
    8. Akarim, Yasemin Deniz & Sevim, Serafettin, 2013. "The impact of mean reversion model on portfolio investment strategies: Empirical evidence from emerging markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 453-459.
    9. Sahar Bahmani, 2007. "Do budget deficits follow a linear or non-linear path?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(14), pages 1-9.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:6:y:2006:i:7:p:1-14 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Chowdhury, Ibrahim, 2010. "Asymmetry dynamics in real exchange rates: New results on East Asian currencies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 648-661, October.
    3. Miguel Carvalho & Paulo Júlio, 2012. "Digging out the PPP hypothesis: an integrated empirical coverage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 713-744, June.
    4. McMillan, David G., 2009. "The confusing time-series behaviour of real exchange rates: Are asymmetries important?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 692-711, October.
    5. Grossmann, Axel & McMillan, David G., 2010. "Forecasting exchange rates: Non-linear adjustment and time-varying equilibrium," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 436-450, October.
    6. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Habibullah, Muzafar Shah & Midi, Habshah, 2008. "Monetary exchange rate model: supportive evidence from nonlinear testing procedures," MPRA Paper 7293, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Ivan Paya & David A. Peel, 2006. "Temporal aggregation of an ESTAR process: some implications for purchasing power parity adjustment," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(5), pages 655-668, July.
    8. Yoon, Gawon, 2010. "Do real exchange rates really follow threshold autoregressive or exponential smooth transition autoregressive models?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 605-612, March.
    9. Mario Cerrato & Hyunsok Kim & Ronald MacDonald, 2008. "3-Regime symmetric STAR modeling and exchange rate reversion," Working Papers 2009_05, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow, revised Feb 2009.
    10. Xie, Zixiong & Chen, Shyh-Wei & Hsieh, Chun-Kuei, 2021. "Facing up to the polysemy of purchasing power parity: New international evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 247-265.
    11. Mario Cerrato & Hyunsok Kim & Ronald Macdonald, 2010. "Three‐Regime Asymmetric STAR Modeling and Exchange Rate Reversion," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 42(7), pages 1447-1467, October.
    12. Hyginus Leon & Serineh Najarian, 2005. "Asymmetric adjustment and nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(1), pages 15-39.
    13. Månsson, Kristofer & Sjölander, Pär, 2014. "Testing for nonlinear panel unit roots under cross-sectional dependency — With an application to the PPP hypothesis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 121-132.
    14. Emirmahmutoglu, Furkan & Omay, Tolga, 2014. "Reexamining the PPP hypothesis: A nonlinear asymmetric heterogeneous panel unit root test," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 184-190.
    15. Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & van Dijk, D.J.C., 2002. "A simple test for PPP among traded goods," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2002-02, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
    16. Christoph Rothe & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2006. "Phillips-Perron-type unit root tests in the nonlinear ESTAR framework," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 90(3), pages 439-456, September.
    17. Param Silvapulle & Titi Kanti Lestari & Jae Kim, 2004. "Nonlinear Modelling of Purchasing Power Parity in Indonesia," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 316, Econometric Society.
    18. Hyeongwoo Kim & Young-Kyu Moh, 2012. "The Yen Real Exchange Rate May Not be Stationary After All: New Evidence from Non-linear Unit-Root Tests," Economic Analysis (Quarterly), Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea, vol. 18(4), pages 1-22, December.
    19. I Paya & D Peel, 2006. "On the relationship between Nominal Exchange Rates and domestic and foreign prices," Working Papers 577409, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
    20. Sarno, Lucio & Valente, Giorgio, 2006. "Deviations from purchasing power parity under different exchange rate regimes: Do they revert and, if so, how?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 3147-3169, November.
    21. Mubariz Hasanov, 2009. "A note on efficiency of Australian and New Zealand stock markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(2), pages 269-273.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-06f30004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.