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A Public Investment Stimulus in Surplus Countries and Its Spillovers in the EA

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  • in't Veld, Jan

Abstract

The Euro Area recommendations endorsed by the European Council in 2016 called for a differentiation of the fiscal effort by individual Member States, taking into account spillovers across Euro Area countries. This article shows model-based simulations of an increase in public investment in Germany and the Netherlands and their spillovers to the rest of the Euro Area. While spillovers in a monetary union may be small when monetary policy reacts by raising interest rates, when rates are kept constant and the stimulus is accommodated, spillovers can be sizeable. An increase in (productive) spending in Germany and the Netherlands can boost GDP in these countries and also have significant positive spillovers on the rest of EA GDP, while the effects on current accounts are likely to be small. Effects can be even larger when investment is directed to the most productive projects. With low borrowing costs at present, the increase in government debt for surplus countries will be modest, while there could be an improvement in debt ratios in the rest of the Euro Area.

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  • in't Veld, Jan, 2017. "A Public Investment Stimulus in Surplus Countries and Its Spillovers in the EA," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 239, pages 53-62, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:nierev:v:239:y:2017:i::p:r53-r62_13
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Burgert & Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld & Lukas Vogel, 2020. "A Global Economy Version of QUEST: Simulation Properties," European Economy - Discussion Papers 126, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi & Chiara Punzo, 2022. "Nonlinearities and expenditure multipliers in the Eurozone [Tales of fiscal adjustment]," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press and the Associazione ICC, vol. 31(2), pages 552-575.
    3. Philipp Pfeiffer & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2021. "Quantifying Spillovers of Next Generation EU Investment," European Economy - Discussion Papers 144, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. Alloza, Mario & Ferdinandusse, Marien & Jacquinot, Pascal & Schmidt, Katja, 2020. "Fiscal expenditure spillovers in the euro area: an empirical and model-based assessment," Occasional Paper Series 240, European Central Bank.
    5. Simona Lorena Comi & Elena Cottini & Claudio Lucifora, 2020. "The effect of retirement on social relationships: new evidence from SHARE," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def088, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    6. Beirne, John & Renzhi, Nuobu & Volz, Ulrich, 2021. "Persistent current account imbalances: Are they good or bad for regional and global growth?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    7. Oliver Picek & Enno Schröder, 2018. "Spillover effects of Germany's final demand on Southern Europe," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(8), pages 2216-2242, August.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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