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Personal-Bankruptcy Cycles

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  • Garrett, Thomas A.
  • Wall, Howard J.

Abstract

This paper estimates the dynamics of the personal-bankruptcy rate over the business cycle by exploiting large cross-state variation. We find that bankruptcy rates are significantly above trend during a recession and rise as a recession persists. After a recession ends, there is a hangover in which bankruptcy rates begin to fall but remain above trend for several more quarters. Recovery periods see a strong bounce-back effect, with bankruptcy rates significantly below trend for several quarters. Despite the significant increases in bankruptcies during recessions, the largest contributor to rising bankruptcies during these periods has tended to be the longstanding upward trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Garrett, Thomas A. & Wall, Howard J., 2014. "Personal-Bankruptcy Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(7), pages 1488-1507, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:18:y:2014:i:07:p:1488-1507_00
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Samir AMINE & Wilner PREDELUS, 2023. "Financial difficulties and economic recession: Evidence from Canadian seniors," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(634), S), pages 227-238, Spring.
    4. Samir Amine & Wilner Predelus, 2019. "The Persistence of the 2008-2009 Recession and Insolvency Filings in Canada," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 84-93.
    5. Stefan Angel & Philipp Warum, 2022. "Privatkonkurse in Österreich. Institutionen, Entwicklung und Charakteristika seit 1995," WIFO Monatsberichte (monthly reports), WIFO, vol. 95(12), pages 823-837, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance

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