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Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu

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  • Correia, Sergio
  • Luck, Stephan
  • Verner, Emil

Abstract

We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and stringent NPIs reduced peak mortality by 50 percent and cumulative excess mortality by 24 to 34 percent. However, while the pandemic itself was associated with short-run economic disruptions, we find that these disruptions were similar across cities with strict and lenient NPIs. NPIs also did not worsen medium-run economic outcomes. Our findings indicate that NPIs can reduce disease transmission without further depressing economic activity, a finding also reflected in discussions in contemporary newspapers.

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  • Correia, Sergio & Luck, Stephan & Verner, Emil, 2022. "Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(4), pages 917-957, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jechis:v:82:y:2022:i:4:p:917-957_1
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    1. Velde, François R., 2022. "What Happened to the U.S. Economy during the 1918 Influenza Pandemic? A View Through High-Frequency Data," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(1), pages 284-326, March.
    2. Adrian Tudor Tudorache & Luminița Nicolescu, 2023. "Insights about the Effects of COVID-19 on International Trade during the Main Pandemic Years in Romania and Poland," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, May.
    3. Del Angel, Marco & Fohlin, Caroline & Weidenmier, Marc D., 2023. "Stock returns and the Spanish flu, 1918–1920," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    4. Doran, Áine & Colvin, Christopher L. & McLaughlin, Eoin, 2024. "What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 342(C).
    5. Bridgman, Benjamin & Greenaway-McGrevy, Ryan, 2023. "The economic impact of social distancing: Evidence from state-collected data during the 1918 influenza pandemic," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    6. Moshe Yanovskiy & Yehoshua Socol, 2022. "Are Lockdowns Effective in Managing Pandemics?," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(15), pages 1-12, July.
    7. Keyang Li & Yu Qin & Jing Wu & Jubo Yan, 2023. "Perceived economic prospects during the early stage of COVID‐19 breakout," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(4), pages 696-713, October.
    8. Ali Mofleh ALSHAHRANI, 2022. "Cost–Benefit Analysis of Interventions to Mitigate the Monkeypox Virus," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(21), pages 1-12, October.
    9. Stefan Bauernschuster & Matthias Blum & Erik Hornung & Christoph Koenig, 2023. "How the 1918 influenza pandemic affected voting in the Weimar Republic," ECONtribute Policy Brief Series 053, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    10. Tiago F. A. Matos & João C. A. Teixeira & Tiago M. Dutra, 2023. "The contribution of macroprudential policies to banks' resilience: Lessons from the systemic crises and the COVID‐19 pandemic shock," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(4), pages 794-830, December.
    11. Breitenbach, Marthinus C & Ngobeni, Victor & Aye, Goodness C, 2020. "Global Healthcare Resource Efficiency in the Management of COVID-19 Death and Infection Prevalence Rates," MPRA Paper 104814, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Claudio Thieme & Víctor Giménez & Diego Prior & Emili Tortosa-Ausina, 2023. "Health vs. Wealth: A Cross-country Analysis of Managerial Effectiveness of the COVID-19," Working Papers 2023/10, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    13. Das, Satadru & Ghosh, Saurabh & Mazumder, Debojyoti & Tushavera, Jitendra, 2023. "Impact of COVID-19 shock on a segmented labour market: Analysis using a unique panel dataset," MPRA Paper 116780, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Park, Dojoon & Kang, Yong Joo & Eom, Young Ho, 2024. "Asset pricing tests for pandemic risk," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1314-1334.

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