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The Succession Connection: Policy Cycles and Political Change in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe

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  • Bunce, Valerie Jane

Abstract

This article tests whether economic policy in the Soviet bloc follows a cycle of change in which more mass-oriented policies rise on the agenda after a succession crisis and then fall once the succession is resolved. Changes in investment and budgetary priorities, growth rates of personal income and consumption, and finally, changes in elite rhetoric and policy pronouncements over time all support the existence of a succession cycle in economic priorities. This suggests that the mass publics do influence—albeit indirectly—the policy process in socialist states, and that chief executives change their priorities over the course of their administrations as different clienteles line up at the trough and different constraints develop. There is, then, a structural component to economic decision making in the Soviet bloc, and that component seems to be similar to the one that operates in the West—that is, the desire of politicians to expand their power and remain in office, and their willingness to use economic policy to achieve those ends.

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  • Bunce, Valerie Jane, 1980. "The Succession Connection: Policy Cycles and Political Change in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 74(4), pages 966-977, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:apsrev:v:74:y:1980:i:04:p:966-977_16
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas R. Cusack & Michael Don Ward, 1981. "Military Spending in the United States, Soviet Union, and the People's Republic of China," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 25(3), pages 429-469, September.
    2. Gang Guo, 2009. "China's Local Political Budget Cycles," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 53(3), pages 621-632, July.
    3. Li, Daniel Z. & Li, Zeren & Zhang, Qi, 2023. "Public investment as downward benefit distribution: Theory and evidence from China’s public–private partnership programs," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 211(C), pages 103-128.
    4. Rohan Chinchwadkar, 2020. "Political Business Cycles, Elections and Entrepreneurial Finance: A Framework," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 18(4), pages 941-954, December.
    5. Cusack, Thomas R., 1987. "Public expenditure decision making: A comparative analysis," Discussion Papers, various Research Units FGG dp 87-1, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    6. Vortherms, Samantha A., 2019. "Disaggregating China’s local political budget cycles: “Righting” the U," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 95-109.
    7. Pi-Han Tsai, 2016. "Fiscal incentives and political budget cycles in China," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 23(6), pages 1030-1073, December.

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