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Neighborhood effects of civil conflict. (1990 -2012)

Author

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  • Torres Gómez, Edwin Esteban
  • Giraldo González, Sebastián
  • Moncada, Jhonny

Abstract

There have been many papers which have studied the causes of conflict, taking into account causes like natural resources, ethnicity, political problems, and commitment problems, among others. This paper focus on the Law of Universal Gravity of Newton (1687) for trying to see if there could be a neighboring country effect on the probability of a conflict or civil war onset and continuity in a given country, and the effect of the size of the border, and find significant evidence about the distance between countries in the probability of onset a conflict. This may suggest that peaceful countries must be very careful with the relationships with neighbors that are having an armed conflict. Resumen: Existe una cantidad considerable de trabajos que analizan de las causas del conflicto. Entre estas causas encontramos los recursos naturales, las diferencias étnicas y los problemas políticos, etc. Este artículo toma como punto de partida la ley universal de la gravedad propuesta por Newton (1687), con el fin de identificar la existencia de un efecto país vecino y un efecto distancia, en la probabilidad de que un país pueda entrar en guerra civil o tener un conflicto armado. Se demuestra que la distancia entre los países juega un papel en la probabilidad de entrar en guerra. Concluimos que un país en paz debe ser muy cuidadoso en sus relaciones diplomáticas con los países vecinos que tienen conflictos armados.

Suggested Citation

  • Torres Gómez, Edwin Esteban & Giraldo González, Sebastián & Moncada, Jhonny, 2013. "Neighborhood effects of civil conflict. (1990 -2012)," Perfil de Coyuntura Económica, Universidad de Antioquia, CIE, issue 21, pages 7-16, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000165:014713
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James C. Murdoch & Todd Sandler, 2002. "Economic Growth, Civil Wars, and Spatial Spillovers," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 46(1), pages 91-110, February.
    2. Joan Esteban & Debraj Ray, 2011. "Linking Conflict to Inequality and Polarization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(4), pages 1345-1374, June.
    3. Daron Acemoglu & James A. Robinson & Rafael J. Santos, 2013. "The Monopoly Of Violence: Evidence From Colombia," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 5-44, January.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Guerra Civil; Modelo Gravitacional; Efecto Vecino; Efecto Distancia.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C29 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Other

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