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Evaluation der ifo Konjunkturprognosen

Author

Listed:
  • Steffen Henzel
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus
  • Timo Wollmershäuser

Abstract

Wie alle Vorhersagen weichen auch die ifo Konjunkturprognosen in gewissem Umfang von den später veröffentlichten amtlichen Ergebnissen ab. Um die größtmögliche Transparenz zu gewährleisten, werden hier die ifo Konjunkturprognosen für das reale BIP in Deutschland seit 1991 dokumentiert und evaluiert.

Suggested Citation

  • Steffen Henzel & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2014. "Evaluation der ifo Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(17), pages 43-45, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:67:y:2014:i:17:p:43-45
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2014_17_6.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Economy activity 2009: forecasts and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(02), pages 30-33, January.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2001. "Business forecasts and forecasting risks," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(16), pages 17-21, October.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2012. "Economic Situation 2011: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(02), pages 22-27, January.
    4. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2017. "Economic Activity in 2016: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(02), pages 72-78, January.
    5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2014. "Business Cycle 2013: Forecast and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(02), pages 41-46, January.
    6. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2009. "Economic activity 2008: Forecasting and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(03), pages 21-25, February.
    7. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2013. "Economic activity 2012: Forecasts and Reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(02), pages 30-33, January.
    8. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2005. "Economic activity 2004: Forecasting and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(03), pages 26-30, February.
    9. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2002. "German economy 2001: Forecast and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(02), pages 32-34, January.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Korbinian Breitrainer & Atanas Hristov, 2015. "Evaluation of the Eurozone Economic Outlook," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(24), pages 67-73, December.
    2. Franziska Fobbe & Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Electric Motors, Energy Supply and Education: the Quality of Ifo’s Production-Side Short-Term Forecast," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(12), pages 58-63, June.
    3. Döhrn, Roland, 2015. "Prognosen für 2015 im Rückblick," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(4), pages 35-46.
    4. Timo Wollmershäuser, 2015. "Evaluation of Ifo Economic Forecasts – a Comparison with Forecasts by Consensus Economics," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(22), pages 26-28, November.
    5. Robert Lehmann & Michael Weber, 2016. "Mehr als Kaffeesatzleserei: Eine Evaluation der ifo Prognosen zur Erwerbstätigkeit in Ostdeutschland und Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 23(02), pages 22-26, April.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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