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Controlling for Import Price Effects in Civil War Regressions

Author

Listed:
  • Janus Thorsten

    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Wyoming, Dept. 3985, 1000 E. University Ave., Laramie, WY 82071, USA, Phone: +1 (307) 766-3384)

  • Riera-Crichton Daniel

    (Department of Economics, Bates College, Pettengill Hall, Room 273, Lewiston, ME 04240, USA)

Abstract

Several studies estimate the effects of commodity export prices on economic outcomes, such as conflict and democratic transitions. In this note, we argue that it is important to control for the effects of import prices due to two reasons. First, economic theory predicts that both import and export prices affect the economy’s performance, which can, in turn, affect its conflict propensity. Second, the facts that import prices might affect the conflict risk and that import and export prices can be correlated imply that the failure to control for import price effects can bias the export price coefficients. We illustrate these points using the dataset and one of the regression specifications in a recent civil war study.

Suggested Citation

  • Janus Thorsten & Riera-Crichton Daniel, 2018. "Controlling for Import Price Effects in Civil War Regressions," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 24(2), pages 1-7, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:pepspp:v:24:y:2018:i:2:p:7:n:2
    DOI: 10.1515/peps-2017-0035
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    civil war; commodity prices; terms of trade; exports;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts

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