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Measuring the Cost of Covid-19 in Terms of the Rise in the Unemployment Rate: The Case of Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Cuestas Juan Carlos
  • Ordóñez Javier
  • Monfort Mercedes

    (Department of Economics and IEI, Jaume I University, Castellón de la, Plana, Spain)

Abstract

In this article, we aim to estimate what the cost of Covid-19 has been in terms of unemployment for Spain. We use a simple autoregressive model to simulate what the unemployment rate would have been without the pandemic and we compare this with the actual values. We also forecast the unemployment rate for 2021 and 2022 to analyse the persistence of the pandemic shock to unemployment.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuestas Juan Carlos & Ordóñez Javier & Monfort Mercedes, 2021. "Measuring the Cost of Covid-19 in Terms of the Rise in the Unemployment Rate: The Case of Spain," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 15(1), pages 112-114, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:econoa:v:15:y:2021:i:1:p:112-114:n:4
    DOI: 10.1515/econ-2021-0009
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Javier Ordóñez, 2018. "Fiscal consolidation in Europe: has it worked?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(16), pages 1179-1182, September.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier J. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1987. "Hysteresis in unemployment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 31(1-2), pages 288-295.
    3. Anja Bauer & Enzo Weber, 2021. "COVID-19: how much unemployment was caused by the shutdown in Germany?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(12), pages 1053-1058, July.
    4. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juncal Cunado & Fernando Perez de Gracia, 2008. "Tourism in the Canary Islands: forecasting using several seasonal time series models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 621-636.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    unemployment; Spain; persistence; Covid-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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