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Party over preference? Strategic primary voting in the age of outsiders

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Listed:
  • Jarrod T. Kelly
  • Eric Loepp

Abstract

Objective Some primary voters cast their ballot for a candidate they do not most prefer in hopes that doing so will increase their party's chances of winning the general election. However, the emergence of party “outsider” candidates challenges prevailing assumptions about the persuasive pull of electability arguments on voter decision making. In this project, we analyze whether and when supporters of “outsider” candidates resolve strategic dilemmas relative to supporters of “insider” candidates. Methods We administer survey experiments to Republicans and Democrats immediately before the 2016 and 2020 primaries, respectively. Results Although voters in both parties are willing to vote strategically, there are critical differences when it comes to the loyalty primary voters feel to outsider primary candidates like Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Conclusion Strategic voting decisions are not based merely on electability, particularly in the case of “outsider” candidates. Scholars should integrate additional factors into future work on voter behavior in primaries.

Suggested Citation

  • Jarrod T. Kelly & Eric Loepp, 2022. "Party over preference? Strategic primary voting in the age of outsiders," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 103(3), pages 607-621, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:socsci:v:103:y:2022:i:3:p:607-621
    DOI: 10.1111/ssqu.13138
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Shanto Iyengar & Sean J. Westwood, 2015. "Fear and Loathing Across Party Lines: New Evidence on Group Polarization," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 59(3), pages 690-707, July.
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