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Thresholds for employment and unemployment: A spatial analysis of German regional labour markets, 1992–2000

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  • Reinhold Kosfeld
  • Christian Dreger

Abstract

. This paper applies Verdoorn's and Okun's law to derive efficient estimates of the employment and unemployment threshold in the Unified Germany. The analysis is built on a disaggregated dataset of regional labour markets, where spatial dependencies are taken into account. Especially, a spatial SUR model is proposed utilising the eigenfunction decomposition approach suggested by Griffith (1996, 2000). The thresholds turn out to be unstable over time. However, minimum output growth sufficient for a rise in employment is below the level needed for a drop in the unemployment rate. If spatial effects are ignored, the thresholds seem to be markedly overrated.

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  • Reinhold Kosfeld & Christian Dreger, 2006. "Thresholds for employment and unemployment: A spatial analysis of German regional labour markets, 1992–2000," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 85(4), pages 523-542, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:presci:v:85:y:2006:i:4:p:523-542
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1435-5957.2006.00096.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Roberto Patuelli & Norbert Schanne & Daniel A. Griffith & Peter Nijkamp, 2012. "Persistence Of Regional Unemployment: Application Of A Spatial Filtering Approach To Local Labor Markets In Germany," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 300-323, May.
    2. Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues, 2011. "What the keynesian theory said about Portugal?," MPRA Paper 32610, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Ulrich Zierahn, 2012. "The importance of spatial autocorrelation for regional employment growth in Germany," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 32(1), pages 19-43, March.
    4. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2018. "A state-level analysis of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-248.
    5. Elhorst, J. Paul & Emili, Silvia, 2022. "A spatial econometric multivariate model of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    6. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Pape, Markus, 2011. "More than just one labor market cycle in Germany? : an analysis of regional unemployment data," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 44(3), pages 279-292.
    7. Hans-Friedrich Eckey & Reinhold Kosfeld & Matthias Türck, 2007. "Regionale Entwicklung mit und ohne räumliche Spillover-Effekte," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 27(1), pages 23-42, February.
    8. Roberto Patuelli & Daniel A. Griffith & Michael Tiefelsdorf & Peter Nijkamp, 2006. "The Use of Spatial Filtering Techniques: The Spatial and Space-time Structure of German Unemployment Data," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-049/3, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Roberto Patuelli & Daniel A. Griffith & Michael Tiefelsdorf & Peter Nijkamp, 2011. "Spatial Filtering and Eigenvector Stability: Space-Time Models for German Unemployment Data," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 34(2), pages 253-280, April.
    10. Marta Yánez Contreras & Marta Yánez Contreras, 2010. "El mercado laboral desde una perspectiva espacial," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, September.
    11. Nikolay Kaledin, 2013. "Societal geography and regionalization of society," ERSA conference papers ersa13p1334, European Regional Science Association.
    12. Eckey, Hans-Friedrich & Döring, Thomas & Türck, Matthias, 2006. "Convergence of regions from 23 EU member states," Volkswirtschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 86, University of Kassel, Faculty of Economics and Management.
    13. Francisco Javier Escribá-Pérez & María José Murgui-García, 2018. "Technology catching-up and regulation in European regions," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 49(1), pages 95-109, February.
    14. Jorge Chica‐Olmo & Marina Checa‐Olivas, 2021. "Spatial impact of factors influencing the achievement of the Europa2020 employment targets," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 100(3), pages 633-649, June.
    15. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Pape, Markus, 2011. "More than just one labor market cycle in Germany? : an analysis of regional unemployment data," Zeitschrift für ArbeitsmarktForschung - Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 44(3), pages 279-292.
    16. Helmut Herwartz & Annekatrin Niebuhr, 2017. "Regional Labor Market Performance in Europe," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 40(3), pages 270-296, May.
    17. Celia Melguizo, 2017. "An analysis of Okun’s law for the Spanish provinces," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 37(1), pages 59-90, February.
    18. Herwartz, Helmut & Niebuhr, Annekatrin, 2011. "Regional labor demand and national labor market institutions in the EU15," HWWI Research Papers 112, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    19. Phiri, Andrew, 2014. "Re-evaluating Okun's law in South Africa: A nonlinear co-integration approach," MPRA Paper 57398, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. López-Hernández, Fernando A., 2013. "Second-order polynomial spatial error model. Global and local spatial dependence in unemployment in Andalusia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 270-279.
    21. Buendía Azorín, José Daniel & Sánchez de la Vega, María del Mar, 2017. "Output growth thresholds for the creation of employment and the reduction of unemployment: A spatial analysis with panel data from the Spanish provinces, 2000–2011," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 42-49.
    22. Buendía Azorín, José Daniel. & Sánchez De La Vega, Mª Del Mar, 2017. "Estimación del valor añadido bruto, dependencia espacial y datos de panel: Evidencia en el caso de los municipios de la Región de Murcia /Estimation of Gross Value Added, Spatial Dependence and Panel ," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 35, pages 315-340, Mayo.

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