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Business Cycle, Currency And Trade, Revisited

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  • MICHAEL J. ARTIS
  • TOSHIHIRO OKUBO

Abstract

This paper reports estimates based on long-run data sets for GDP and trade, with three subsamples chosen to reflect the first globalization period, the "bloc economy" period and the second globalization period. The business cycle is identified as the series of deviates from a Hodrick-Prescott filtered trend, and turning points are identified. Cross-correlations of the cyclical deviates are calculated for all the pairs of the 21 countries examined. It is apparent from casual inspection that the business cycle characteristics and the pattern of crosscorrelations in the bloc economy period are different from those found for the two globalization periods whilst there is less difference between the two globalization periods. Estimation is undertaken of equations to explain the pattern of cross correlations in terms of trade and currency union membership. A dummy for the countries that belong to the Eurozone is found to be significant for the period of the first globalization, that is, well before any manifestation of a common Euro-currency is available. By contrast, Asian business cycle co-movement cannot be found.
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  • Michael J. Artis & Toshihiro Okubo, 2012. "Business Cycle, Currency And Trade, Revisited," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(1), pages 160-180, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:17:y:2012:i:1:p:160-180
    DOI: j.1468-0106.2011.00576.x
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    Cited by:

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    4. Poměnková, Jitka & Fidrmuc, Jarko & Korhonen, Iikka, 2014. "China and the World economy : Wavelet spectrum analysis of business cycles," BOFIT Discussion Papers 5/2014, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
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    6. Feldkircher, Martin & Korhonen, Iikka, 2012. "The rise of China and its implications for emerging markets: Evidence from a GVAR model," BOFIT Discussion Papers 20/2012, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).

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