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The Japanese textile sector and the influenza pandemic of 1918–1920

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  • Ilan Noy
  • Toshihiro Okubo
  • Eric Strobl

Abstract

The ongoing global pandemic has brought into sharp relief the possible interactions between the epidemiology of a virus, the structure of the economy and society that becomes exposed to it, and the actions chosen by government, individuals, and communities to combat it or ameliorate its economic impact. Surprisingly, there has not been sufficient research on these economic and policy interactions of the 1918–1920 influenza pandemic—the deadliest pandemic of the 20th century. This paper focuses on Japan, which as a minor participant of and was not directly affected by World War I. We exploit the diversity of experiences with the pandemic and its attendant policy responses across Japanese prefectures; and investigate the importance of the pandemic's toll (measured by excess mortality), and of nonpharmaceutical policy interventions (NPIs), in determining the pandemic's economic impact. We do so by focusing on the production and employment in the textile sector, given the availability of data and the general importance of the textile sector for emerging economies (as Japan was at the time). We find a significant adverse impact of the pandemic on textiles (almost 30% for an average prefectural excess mortality shock) and indeed find that the implemented NPIs were effective in ameliorating around one half of the pandemic's adverse economic consequences, especially for textile output (rather than employment). Furthermore, these NPIs were more effective when the excess mortality was higher. In this case, there was no trade‐off between money and life, but rather the two were complimentary.

Suggested Citation

  • Ilan Noy & Toshihiro Okubo & Eric Strobl, 2023. "The Japanese textile sector and the influenza pandemic of 1918–1920," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(5), pages 1192-1227, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jregsc:v:63:y:2023:i:5:p:1192-1227
    DOI: 10.1111/jors.12660
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    Cited by:

    1. Hiroyasu Inoue & Kentaro Nakajima & Tetsuji Okazaki & Yukiko U. Saito, 2022. "The Role of Face-to-face Contact on Innovation: Evidence from the Spanish Flu Pandemic in Japan," CIGS Working Paper Series 22-007E, The Canon Institute for Global Studies.
    2. Gallardo-Albarrán, Daniel & de Zwart, Pim, 2021. "A bitter epidemic: The impact of the 1918 influenza on sugar production in Java," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    3. Ilan Noy & Tomáš Uher, 2022. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: a literature review," Chapters, in: Mark Skidmore (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 117-133, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Hiroyasu Inoue & Kentaro Nakajima & Tetsuji Okazaki & Yukiko U. Saito, 2022. "Controlling Funds Allocation for the War: The Experience of Japan in the Late 1930s," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1192, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    5. Nguyen Doan & Canh Phuc Nguyen & Ilan Noy & Yasuyuki Sawada, 2020. "The Economic Impacts of a Pandemic: What Happened after SARS in 2003?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8687, CESifo.

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    JEL classification:

    • H75 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Government: Health, Education, and Welfare
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development

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