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A Model of Returns and Trading in Futures Markets

Author

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  • Harrison Hong

Abstract

This paper develops an equilibrium model of a competitive futures market in which investors trade to hedge positions and to speculate on their private information. Equilibrium return and trading patterns are examined. (1) In markets where the information asymmetry among investors is small, the return volatility of a futures contract decreases with time‐to‐maturity (i.e., the Samuelson effect holds). (2) However, in markets where the information asymmetry among investors is large, the Samuelson effect need not hold. (3) Additionally, the model generates rich time‐to‐maturity patterns in open interest and spot price volatility that are consistent with empirical findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Harrison Hong, 2000. "A Model of Returns and Trading in Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 959-988, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:55:y:2000:i:2:p:959-988
    DOI: 10.1111/0022-1082.00233
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    Cited by:

    1. Smimou, K., 2017. "Does gold Liquidity learn from the greenback or the equity?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 461-479.
    2. Ren'e Aid & Andrea Cosso & Huy^en Pham, 2020. "Equilibrium price in intraday electricity markets," Papers 2010.09285, arXiv.org.
    3. Souček, Michael, 2013. "Crude oil, equity and gold futures open interest co-movements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 306-315.
    4. M. Illueca & J. Lafuente, 2008. "Introducing the mini-futures contract on Ibex 35: implications for price discovery and volatility transmission," Spanish Economic Review, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 197-219, September.
    5. Hipòlit Torró, 2007. "Forecasting Weekly Electricity Prices at Nord Pool," Working Papers 2007.88, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    6. Aris Kartsaklas, 2018. "Trader Type Effects On The Volatility‐Volume Relationship Evidence From The Kospi 200 Index Futures Market," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 70(3), pages 226-250, July.
    7. Halkos, George, 2005. "Determining empirically behavioral and fundamental factors of discounts on closed end funds," MPRA Paper 49280, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Inci, Ahmet Can, 2008. "The Japanese yen futures returns, spot returns, and the risk premium," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 385-399.
    9. René Aid & Andrea Cosso & Huyên Pham, 2022. "Equilibrium price in intraday electricity markets," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 517-554, April.
    10. Evans, Lewis & Guthrie, Graeme, 2007. "Commodity Price Behavior With Storage Frictions," Working Paper Series 19065, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    11. Madarassy Akin, Rita, 2003. "Maturity Effects in Futures Markets: Evidence from Eleven Financial Futures Markets," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt1n04g31b, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    12. Delphine H. Lautier, Franck Raynaud, and Michel A. Robe, 2019. "Shock Propagation Across the Futures Term Structure: Evidence from Crude Oil Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    13. Fabian Hollstein & Marcel Prokopczuk & Christoph Würsig, 2020. "Volatility term structures in commodity markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 527-555, April.
    14. George Emm Halkos & Theodore Krintas, 2006. "Behavioural and fundamental explanations of discounts on closed end funds: an empirical analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(5), pages 395-404.
    15. Xu, Kewei & Xiong, Xiong & Li, Xiao, 2021. "The maturity effect of stock index futures: Speculation or carry arbitrage?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    16. Madarassy Akin, Rita, 2003. "Maturity Effects in Futures Markets: Evidence from Eleven Financial Futures Markets," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1n04g31b, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
    17. Evans, Lewis & Guthrie, Graeme, 2007. "Commodity Price Behavior With Storage Frictions," Working Paper Series 3966, Victoria University of Wellington, The New Zealand Institute for the Study of Competition and Regulation.
    18. repec:vuw:vuwscr:19065 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Jonathan Kearns, 2007. "Commodity Currencies: Why Are Exchange Rate Futures Biased if Commodity Futures Are Not?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(260), pages 60-73, March.
    20. Phan, Hoàng-Long & Zurbruegg, Ralf & Brockman, Paul & Yu, Chia-Feng (Jeffrey), 2022. "Time-to-maturity and commodity futures return volatility: The role of time-varying asymmetric information," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    21. Bhaumik, S. & Karanasos, M. & Kartsaklas, A., 2016. "The informative role of trading volume in an expanding spot and futures market," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 24-40.
    22. Loïc Maréchal, 2021. "Do economic variables forecast commodity futures volatility?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(11), pages 1735-1774, November.
    23. Liao, Huei-Chu & Lee, Yi-Huey & Suen, Yu-Bo, 2008. "Electronic trading system and returns volatility in the oil futures market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2636-2644, September.

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