IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/irvfin/v21y2021i2p627-635.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The profitability of trading on large Lévy jumps

Author

Listed:
  • Kam Fong Chan
  • Phil Gray
  • Zheyao Pan

Abstract

While past research has studied the profitability of trading based on jump signals, the notion of differentiating between jumps according to their magnitude has received relatively little attention. We utilize the approach of Lee and Hannig (2010) to identify Lévy jumps and classify them as small and large. The empirical analysis shows that the arrival of large Lévy jumps provides a strong trading signal in five major equity markets. In contrast, the signal from small Lévy jumps is negligible.

Suggested Citation

  • Kam Fong Chan & Phil Gray & Zheyao Pan, 2021. "The profitability of trading on large Lévy jumps," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 627-635, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:21:y:2021:i:2:p:627-635
    DOI: 10.1111/irfi.12279
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/irfi.12279
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/irfi.12279?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Vicentiu Covrig & Michael Melvin, 2005. "Tokyo insiders and the informational efficiency of the yen|dollar exchange rate," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 185-193.
    2. Boudt, Kris & Petitjean, Mikael, 2014. "Intraday liquidity dynamics and news releases around price jumps: Evidence from the DJIA stocks," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 121-149.
    3. Das, Sanjiv R., 2002. "The surprise element: jumps in interest rates," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 27-65, January.
    4. Suzanne S. Lee & Per A. Mykland, 2008. "Jumps in Financial Markets: A New Nonparametric Test and Jump Dynamics," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(6), pages 2535-2563, November.
    5. Yacine Aït-Sahalia & Jean Jacod, 2012. "Analyzing the Spectrum of Asset Returns: Jump and Volatility Components in High Frequency Data," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1007-1050, December.
    6. Zhou, Chunyang & Wu, Chongfeng & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Dynamic portfolio allocation with time-varying jump risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 113-124.
    7. Ornthanalai, Chayawat, 2014. "Lévy jump risk: Evidence from options and returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(1), pages 69-90.
    8. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold, 2007. "Roughing It Up: Including Jump Components in the Measurement, Modeling, and Forecasting of Return Volatility," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 701-720, November.
    9. Suzanne S. Lee, 2012. "Jumps and Information Flow in Financial Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(2), pages 439-479.
    10. Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Laurent, Sébastien & Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Which continuous-time model is most appropriate for exchange rates?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 256-268.
    11. Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Raman Uppal, 2004. "Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2809-2834, December.
    12. Hansen, Peter R. & Lunde, Asger, 2006. "Realized Variance and Market Microstructure Noise," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 127-161, April.
    13. Jérôme Lahaye & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2011. "Jumps, cojumps and macro announcements," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 893-921, September.
    14. Bollerslev, Tim & Kretschmer, Uta & Pigorsch, Christian & Tauchen, George, 2009. "A discrete-time model for daily S & P500 returns and realized variations: Jumps and leverage effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 151-166, June.
    15. Osler, Carol & Savaser, Tanseli, 2011. "Extreme returns: The case of currencies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2868-2880, November.
    16. Lee, Suzanne S. & Hannig, Jan, 2010. "Detecting jumps from Lévy jump diffusion processes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 271-290, May.
    17. Merton, Robert C., 1976. "Option pricing when underlying stock returns are discontinuous," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1-2), pages 125-144.
    18. Ball, Clifford A. & Roma, Antonio, 1993. "A jump diffusion model for the European monetary system," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 475-492, October.
    19. Nieuwland, Frederick G M C & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C P, 1994. "Stochastic trends and jumps in EMS exchange rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(6), pages 699-727, December.
    20. Gilder, Dudley & Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J., 2014. "Cojumps in stock prices: Empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 443-459.
    21. Ball, Clifford A & Torous, Walter N, 1985. "On Jumps in Common Stock Prices and Their Impact on Call Option Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 155-173, March.
    22. Das, Sanjiv Ranjan & Sundaram, Rangarajan K., 1999. "Of Smiles and Smirks: A Term Structure Perspective," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 34(2), pages 211-239, June.
    23. Novotný, Jan & Petrov, Dmitri & Urga, Giovanni, 2015. "Trading price jump clusters in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 66-92.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yao, Wenying & Tian, Jing, 2015. "The role of intra-day volatility pattern in jump detection: empirical evidence on how financial markets respond to macroeconomic news announcements," Working Papers 2015-05, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    2. Barunik, Jozef & Vacha, Lukas, 2018. "Do co-jumps impact correlations in currency markets?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 97-119.
    3. Serdengeçti, Süleyman & Sensoy, Ahmet & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2021. "Dynamics of return and liquidity (co) jumps in emerging foreign exchange markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    4. Gilder, Dudley & Shackleton, Mark B. & Taylor, Stephen J., 2014. "Cojumps in stock prices: Empirical evidence," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 443-459.
    5. Massimiliano Caporin & Aleksey Kolokolov & Roberto RenoÕ, 2014. "Multi-jumps," "Marco Fanno" Working Papers 0185, Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche "Marco Fanno".
      • Caporin, Massimiliano & Kolokolov, Aleksey & Renò, Roberto, 2014. "Multi-jumps," MPRA Paper 58175, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Christopher J. Neely & Xiye Yang, 2023. "Systemic Tail Risk: High-Frequency Measurement, Evidence and Implications," Working Papers 2023-016, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    7. Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Petitjean, Mikael & Vargas, Nicolas, 2021. "Market instability and technical trading at high frequency: Evidence from NASDAQ stocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    8. Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Laurent, Sébastien & Neely, Christopher J., 2015. "Which continuous-time model is most appropriate for exchange rates?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(S2), pages 256-268.
    9. Dungey, Mardi & Matei, Marius & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2020. "Examining stress in Asian currencies: A perspective offered by high frequency financial market data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Sébastien Laurent & Christopher J. Neely, 2013. "Econometric modeling of exchange rate volatility and jumps," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 16, pages 373-427, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    11. Piccotti, Louis R., 2018. "Jumps, cojumps, and efficiency in the spot foreign exchange market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 49-67.
    12. Dinesh Gajurel & Biplob Chowdhury, 2021. "Realized Volatility, Jump and Beta: evidence from Canadian Stock Market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(55), pages 6376-6397, November.
    13. Chorro, Christophe & Ielpo, Florian & Sévi, Benoît, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    14. Caporin, Massimiliano & Kolokolov, Aleksey & Renò, Roberto, 2017. "Systemic co-jumps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(3), pages 563-591.
    15. Dungey, Mardi & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Matei, Marius & Yang, Xiye, 2018. "Testing for mutually exciting jumps and financial flights in high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 202(1), pages 18-44.
    16. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2017. "The contribution of jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-01442618, HAL.
    17. Deniz Erdemlioglu & Nikola Gradojevic, 2021. "Heterogeneous investment horizons, risk regimes, and realized jumps," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 617-643, January.
    18. Christophe Chorro & Florian Ielpo & Benoît Sévi, 2020. "The contribution of intraday jumps to forecasting the density of returns," Post-Print halshs-02505861, HAL.
    19. Sevcan Uzun & Ahmet Sensoy & Duc Khuong Nguyen, 2023. "Jump forecasting in foreign exchange markets: A high‐frequency analysis," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 578-624, April.
    20. Maneesoonthorn, Worapree & Martin, Gael M. & Forbes, Catherine S., 2020. "High-frequency jump tests: Which test should we use?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 478-487.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:irvfin:v:21:y:2021:i:2:p:627-635. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=1369-412X .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.