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Global indeterminacy in locally determinate real business cycle models

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  • Tarek Coury
  • Yi Wen

Abstract

We investigate the global dynamics of real business cycle models with production externalities. We confirm that purely local analysis does not tell the full story. With externalities smaller than required for local indeterminacy, local analysis shows the steady state to be a saddle, implying a unique equilibrium. However, global analysis reveals that the steady state is surrounded by stable deterministic cycles. Our analysis suggests that indeterminacy is more pervasive than previously believed, and the results strengthen the view that caution should be exercised when linearized versions of this class of real business cycle models are used in applied work.

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  • Tarek Coury & Yi Wen, 2009. "Global indeterminacy in locally determinate real business cycle models," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 5(1), pages 49-60, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ijethy:v:5:y:2009:i:1:p:49-60
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1742-7363.2008.00102.x
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    2. Yi Wen & Huabin Wu, 2011. "Dynamics of externalities: a second-order perspective," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 93(May), pages 187-206.
    3. Yi Wen, 2015. "The Making of an Economic Superpower―Unlocking China’s Secret of Rapid Industrialization," Working Papers 2015-6, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    4. Takashi Kamihigashi, 2017. "Regime-Switching Sunspot Equilibria in a One-Sector Growth Model with Aggregate Decreasing Returns and Small Externalities," Studies in Economic Theory, in: Kazuo Nishimura & Alain Venditti & Nicholas C. Yannelis (ed.), Sunspots and Non-Linear Dynamics, chapter 0, pages 125-146, Springer.
    5. Nika Lazaryan & Thomas A. Lubik, 2019. "Global dynamics in a search and matching model of the labor market," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 68(2), pages 461-497, September.
    6. Nika Lazaryan & Thomas A. Lubik, 2017. "Global Dynamics in a Search and Matching Model of the Labor Market," Working Paper 17-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    7. Antoci, Angelo & Galeotti, Marcello & Russu, Paolo, 2011. "Poverty trap and global indeterminacy in a growth model with open-access natural resources," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 569-591, March.
    8. Kazuo Mino, 2017. "Sunspot-Driven Business Cycles: An Overview," KIER Working Papers 973, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
    9. Been‐Lon Chen & Shun‐Fa Lee & Xavier Raurich, 2020. "Non‐separable utilities and aggregate instability," International Journal of Economic Theory, The International Society for Economic Theory, vol. 16(2), pages 222-237, June.
    10. Yi Wen, 2021. "The Poverty of Macroeconomics --- What the Chemical Revolution Tells Us about Neoclassical Production Function," Working Papers 2021-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    11. Bella, Giovanni & Mattana, Paolo & Venturi, Beatrice, 2017. "Shilnikov chaos in the Lucas model of endogenous growth," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 172(C), pages 451-477.
    12. Carboni, Oliviero A. & Russu, Paolo, 2013. "Linear production function, externalities and indeterminacy in a capital-resource growth model," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 422-428.

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