IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/glopol/v13y2022i5p792-807.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Safe Governance Space for Humanity: Necessary Conditions for the Governance of Global Catastrophic Risks

Author

Listed:
  • Len Fisher
  • Anders Sandberg

Abstract

The world faces a multiplicity of global catastrophic risks (GCRs), whose functionality as individual and collective complex adaptive networks (CANs) poses unique problems for governance in a world that itself comprises an intricately interlinked set of CANs. Here we examine necessary conditions for new approaches to governance that consider the known properties of CANs—especially that small changes in one part of the system can cascade and amplify throughout the system and that the system as a whole can also undergo rapid, dramatic, and often unpredictable change with little or no warning.

Suggested Citation

  • Len Fisher & Anders Sandberg, 2022. "A Safe Governance Space for Humanity: Necessary Conditions for the Governance of Global Catastrophic Risks," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 13(5), pages 792-807, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:glopol:v:13:y:2022:i:5:p:792-807
    DOI: 10.1111/1758-5899.13030
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/1758-5899.13030
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/1758-5899.13030?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mason, Charles F. & Polasky, Stephen & Tarui, Nori, 2017. "Cooperation on climate-change mitigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 43-55.
    2. Len Fisher, 2015. "More than 70 ways to show resilience," Nature, Nature, vol. 518(7537), pages 35-35, February.
    3. Levin, Simon & Xepapadeas, Tasos & Crépin, Anne-Sophie & Norberg, Jon & de Zeeuw, Aart & Folke, Carl & Hughes, Terry & Arrow, Kenneth & Barrett, Scott & Daily, Gretchen & Ehrlich, Paul & Kautsky, Nils, 2013. "Social-ecological systems as complex adaptive systems: modeling and policy implications," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 111-132, April.
    4. Owen Cotton‐Barratt & Max Daniel & Anders Sandberg, 2020. "Defence in Depth Against Human Extinction: Prevention, Response, Resilience, and Why They All Matter," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 11(3), pages 271-282, May.
    5. Gisela Wachinger & Ortwin Renn & Chloe Begg & Christian Kuhlicke, 2013. "The Risk Perception Paradox—Implications for Governance and Communication of Natural Hazards," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 33(6), pages 1049-1065, June.
    6. Rigmar Osterkamp & Markus Eller, 2003. "How Decentralised Is Government Activity?," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(01), pages 32-35, February.
    7. Anne van Aaken & Janis Antonovics & Peter Kareiva & Emma Fuller, 2016. "Beyond Resilience: How to Better Prepare for the Profound Disruption of the Anthropocene," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 7, pages 107-118, May.
    8. repec:ces:ifodic:v:1:y:2003:i:3:p:14567926 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Rigmar Osterkamp & Markus Eller, 2003. "Functional Decentralisation of Government Activity," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(3), pages 36-42, 02.
    10. Makridakis, Spyros & Taleb, Nassim, 2009. "Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 716-733, October.
    11. David G. Victor, 2006. "Toward Effective International Cooperation on Climate Change: Numbers, Interests and Institutions," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 6(3), pages 90-103, August.
    12. Alexis Louaas & Pierre Picard, 2021. "Optimal insurance coverage of low-probability catastrophic risks," The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics (The Geneva Association), vol. 46(1), pages 61-88, March.
    13. Alan Greenspan, 2002. "Corporate governance," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 3(03), pages 3-6, October.
    14. Dirk Helbing, 2013. "Globally networked risks and how to respond," Nature, Nature, vol. 497(7447), pages 51-59, May.
    15. Rigmar Osterkamp & Markus Eller, 2003. "How Decentralised Is Government Activity?," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(1), pages 32-35, 02.
    16. Stephen R. Carpenter & Kenneth J. Arrow & Scott Barrett & Reinette Biggs & William A. Brock & Anne-Sophie Crépin & Gustav Engström & Carl Folke & Terry P. Hughes & Nils Kautsky & Chuan-Zhong Li & Geof, 2012. "General Resilience to Cope with Extreme Events," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 4(12), pages 1-12, November.
    17. Andrew G. Haldane & Robert M. May, 2011. "Systemic risk in banking ecosystems," Nature, Nature, vol. 469(7330), pages 351-355, January.
    18. Eric D. Beinhocker, 2013. "Reflexivity, complexity, and the nature of social science," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 330-342, December.
    19. Runde, Jochen, 1998. "Clarifying Frank Knight's Discussion of the Meaning of Risk and Uncertainty," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 22(5), pages 539-546, September.
    20. George Soros, 2013. "Fallibility, reflexivity, and the human uncertainty principle," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 309-329, December.
    21. Victor,David G., 2011. "Global Warming Gridlock," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521865012, October.
    22. Marcello Basili, 2019. "The CoVid-19 pandemic outbreak: The precautionary principle and institutional failures," Mercato Concorrenza Regole, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 475-483.
    23. Seth D. Baum & David C. Denkenberger & Joshua M. Pearce & Alan Robock & Richelle Winkler, 2015. "Erratum to: Resilience to global food supply catastrophes," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 424-424, September.
    24. David G. Victor, 2016. "What the Framework Convention on Climate Change Teaches Us About Cooperation on Climate Change," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 133-141.
    25. Baum, Seth D. & Handoh, Itsuki C., 2014. "Integrating the planetary boundaries and global catastrophic risk paradigms," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 13-21.
    26. Keohane, Robert O., 2001. "Governance in a Partially Globalized World," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 95(1), pages 1-13, March.
    27. Rakhyun Kim & Brendan Mackey, 2014. "International environmental law as a complex adaptive system," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 5-24, March.
    28. Nick Bostrom, 2013. "Existential Risk Prevention as Global Priority," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 4(1), pages 15-31, February.
    29. Rigmar Osterkamp & Markus Eller, 2003. "Functional Decentralisation of Government Activity," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 1(03), pages 36-42, February.
    30. Fikret Berkes, 2007. "Understanding uncertainty and reducing vulnerability: lessons from resilience thinking," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 41(2), pages 283-295, May.
    31. repec:ces:ifodic:v:1:y:2003:i:1:p:14567833 is not listed on IDEAS
    32. Seth D. Baum & David C. Denkenberger & Joshua M. Pearce & Alan Robock & Richelle Winkler, 2015. "Resilience to global food supply catastrophes," Environment Systems and Decisions, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 301-313, June.
    33. Damian J. Ruck & Luke J. Matthews & Thanos Kyritsis & Quentin D. Atkinson & R. Alexander Bentley, 2020. "The cultural foundations of modern democracies," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(3), pages 265-269, March.
    34. Manheim, David, 2018. "Building Less Flawed Metrics," MPRA Paper 90649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sarah Curtis & Katie Oven & Jonathan Wistow & Christine Dunn & Lena Dominelli, 2018. "Adaptation to extreme weather events in complex health and social care systems: The example of older people’s services in England," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 36(1), pages 67-91, February.
    2. Christopher Nathan & Keith Hyams, 2022. "Global policymakers and catastrophic risk," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 55(1), pages 3-21, March.
    3. Stefan Greiving & Dietwald Gruehn & Christa Reicher, 2022. "The Rhenish Coal-Mining Area—Assessing the Transformational Talents and Challenges of a Region in Fundamental Structural Change," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-20, May.
    4. Andy Gouldson & Rory Sullivan, 2014. "Understanding the Governance of Corporations: An Examination of the Factors Shaping UK Supermarket Strategies on Climate Change," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 46(12), pages 2972-2990, December.
    5. Francesco Ramella, 2010. "Negotiating Local Development: The Italian Experience of ‘Territorial Pacts’," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 28(3), pages 512-527, June.
    6. Smith, Göran & Hensher, David A., 2020. "Towards a framework for Mobility-as-a-Service policies," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 54-65.
    7. Alejandro Lara & Felipe Bucci & Cristobal Palma & Juan Munizaga & Victor Montre-Águila, 2021. "Development, urban planning and political decisions. A triad that built territories at risk," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1935-1957, November.
    8. Harriet Bulkeley & Andy Jordan, 2012. "Guest Editorial," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 30(4), pages 556-570, August.
    9. Laura Ripoll González & Fred Gale, 2020. "Place Branding as Participatory Governance? An Interdisciplinary Case Study of Tasmania, Australia," SAGE Open, , vol. 10(2), pages 21582440209, May.
    10. van Oosten, Cora & Runhaar, Hens & Arts, Bas, 2021. "Capable to govern landscape restoration? Exploring landscape governance capabilities, based on literature and stakeholder perceptions," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    11. Katharina Spraul & Annegret Höfert, 2021. "Governance for Sustainability: Patterns of Regulation and Self-Regulation in the German Wine Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-25, March.
    12. Jan Janosch Förster & Linda Downsborough & Lisa Biber-Freudenberger & Girma Kelboro Mensuro & Jan Börner, 2021. "Exploring criteria for transformative policy capacity in the context of South Africa’s biodiversity economy," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 54(1), pages 209-237, March.
    13. Daria Gritsenko & Matthew Wood, 2022. "Algorithmic governance: A modes of governance approach," Regulation & Governance, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 16(1), pages 45-62, January.
    14. Wiebren Kuindersma & Froukje G Boonstra, 2010. "The Changing Role of the State in Dutch Regional Partnerships," Environment and Planning C, , vol. 28(6), pages 1045-1062, December.
    15. Krzysztof Niedziałkowski & Renata Putkowska-Smoter, 2021. "What Is the Role of the Government in Wildlife Policy? Evolutionary Governance Perspective," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 9(2), pages 428-438.
    16. Most Asikha Aktar & Md Mahmudul Alam, 2021. "Cultural Inequality and Sustainable Development," Post-Print hal-03520087, HAL.
    17. Franco-Torres, Manuel & Kvålshaugen, Ragnhild & Ugarelli, Rita M., 2021. "Understanding the governance of urban water services from an institutional logics perspective," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    18. Dwi Amalia Sari & Chris Margules & Han She Lim & Jeffrey A. Sayer & Agni Klintuni Boedhihartono & Colin J. Macgregor & Allan P. Dale & Elizabeth Poon, 2022. "Performance Auditing to Assess the Implementation of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-24, October.
    19. Juan Yan & Marietta Haffner & Marja Elsinga, 2021. "Inclusionary Housing: An Evaluation of a New Public Rental Housing Governance Instrument in China," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(3), pages 1-17, March.
    20. Lange, Marcus & Cummins, Valerie, 2021. "Managing stakeholder perception and engagement for marine energy transitions in a decarbonising world," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:glopol:v:13:y:2022:i:5:p:792-807. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lsepsuk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.