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A New Method For The Estimation Of Capacity Utilization: Theory And Empirical Evidence From 14 Eu Countries

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  • Theologos Dergiades
  • Lefteris Tsoulfidis

Abstract

In this paper, we develop a new and at the same time simple method of obtaining a measure of the rate of capacity utilization (CU) which makes use of the structural vector autoregression (SVAR) system of equation estimating technique with long‐run restrictions. The measure of CU that we derive for each of 14 EU countries replicates to a great extent the European Commission's Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs (ECFIN) measure. On closer examination we find that the in‐sample explanatory content with respect to the inflation rate of the SVAR measure exceeds more often than not that of the ECFIN's measure; however, the out‐of‐sample forecasting performance of the two models is approximately equivalent.

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  • Theologos Dergiades & Lefteris Tsoulfidis, 2007. "A New Method For The Estimation Of Capacity Utilization: Theory And Empirical Evidence From 14 Eu Countries," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(4), pages 361-381, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:59:y:2007:i:4:p:361-381
    DOI: 10.1111/j.0307-3378.2007.00263.x
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    2. Chris Heerden & Riaan Rossouw, 2014. "Resource utilisation Efficiency: A South African Provincial Evaluation," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 82(4), pages 475-492, December.
    3. Dunz, Nepomuk & Naqvi, Asjad & Monasterolo, Irene, 2019. "Climate Transition Risk, Climate Sentiments, and Financial Stability in a Stock-Flow Consistent approach," Ecological Economic Papers 23, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    4. Federico Bassi, 2020. "Chronic Excess Capacity and Unemployment Hysteresis in EU Countries. A Structural Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def091, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    5. Jan-Egbert Sturm & Michael Graff, 2009. "Schätzung der Outputlücke," KOF Analysen, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich, vol. 3(2), pages 55-67, June.
    6. Dunz, Nepomuk & Naqvi, Asjad & Monasterolo, Irene, 2021. "Climate sentiments, transition risk, and financial stability in a stock-flow consistent model," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    7. Boikos, Spyridon, 2020. "Capital utilization, obsolescence and technological progress," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).

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