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The impacts of COVID‐19 containment on the Australian economy and its agricultural and mining industries

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  • Janine M. Dixon
  • Philip D. Adams
  • Nicholas Sheard

Abstract

We simulate the economic impacts of the COVID‐19 pandemic on the Australian economy using VURM, a detailed computable general equilibrium model for Australia. We identify five sources of economic perturbations: changes to productivity due to changing work practices, changes in household demand imposed by voluntary and mandated social distancing behaviour, changes in international trade due to a weakened world economy and severe curtailment of international travel, reduced population growth due to lower net migration and large debt‐financed fiscal stimulus. Variants of these shocks and associated recovery paths are simulated in VURM, with three scenarios describing potential recovery arcs. The macroeconomic and industry impacts are reported for each scenario. Ultimately, our focus is on the impact on output and employment in the agriculture and mining sectors, and on their likely recovery prospects. At the peak of economic impacts, output in these sectors declines by about 6 per cent relative to a no‐COVID baseline. Compared to the economy‐wide average, the decline in agriculture and mining output is small. This can be explained by relatively minor impacts on work practices, relatively low negative impacts on demand for intensive agriculture (helped by fiscal supports for households) and relatively low disruption to export demand.

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  • Janine M. Dixon & Philip D. Adams & Nicholas Sheard, 2021. "The impacts of COVID‐19 containment on the Australian economy and its agricultural and mining industries," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(4), pages 776-801, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ajarec:v:65:y:2021:i:4:p:776-801
    DOI: 10.1111/1467-8489.12459
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    1. Philip Adams & Janine Dixon & Mark Horridge, 2015. "The Victoria University Regional Model (VURM): Technical Documentation, Version 1.0," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-254, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    2. Ali Madai Boukar & Olivier Mbock & Jean‐Marc Malambwe Kilolo, 2021. "The impacts of the Covid‐19 pandemic on employment in Cameroon: A general equilibrium analysis," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(S1), pages 88-101, April.
    3. Calvin Z. Djiofack & Hasan Dudu & Albert G. Zeufack, 2020. "Assessing COVID-19’s economic impact in sub-Saharan Africa: Insights from a CGE model," Vox eBook Chapters, in: Simeon Djankov & Ugo Panizza (ed.), COVID-19 in Developing Economies, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 53-68, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Paul Malliet & Frédéric Reynès & Gissela Landa & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Aurélien Saussay, 2020. "Assessing Short-Term and Long-Term Economic and Environmental Effects of the COVID-19 Crisis in France," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 867-883, August.
    5. Alexandre A. Porsse & Kênia B. de Souza & Terciane S. Carvalho & Vinícius A. Vale, 2020. "The economic impacts of COVID‐19 in Brazil based on an interregional CGE approach," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(6), pages 1105-1121, December.
    6. Robinson, Sherman & Levy, Stephanie & Hernández, Victor & Davies, Rob & Gabriel, Sherwin & Arndt, Channing & van Seventer, Dirk & Pleitez, Marcelo, 2021. "Covid-19 and lockdown policies: A structural simulation model of a bottom-up recession in four countries," IFPRI discussion papers 2015, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6neh4df2kq9orrjiscv6839f6n is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Peterson, Deborah C. & Crase, Lin, 2021. "Disaster, disruption, recovery and resilience: lessons from and for agricultural and resource-based industries," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(04), January.
    2. Deborah C. Peterson & Lin Crase, 2021. "Disaster, disruption, recovery and resilience: lessons from and for agricultural and resource‐based industries," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(4), pages 767-775, October.
    3. Dzyuba, Yu. & Bakalova, I., 2023. "CGE models for resource-based economy: A comprehensive bibliometric analysis," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 61(4), pages 12-50.

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