IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bin/bpeajo/v45y2014i2014-02p197-275.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects

Author

Listed:
  • Stephanie Aaronson

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Tomaz Cajner

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Bruce Fallick

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

  • Felix Galbis-Reig

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Christopher Smith

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • William Wascher

    (Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

Since 2007, the labor force participation rate has fallen from about 66 percent to about 63 percent. The sources of this decline have been widely debated among academics and policymakers, with some arguing that the participation rate is depressed due to weak labor demand while others argue that the decline was inevitable due to structural forces such as the aging of the population. In this paper, we use a variety of approaches to assess reasons for the decline in participation. Although these approaches yield somewhat different estimates of the extent to which the recent decline in participation reflects cyclical weakness rather than structural factors, our overall assessment is that much - but not all - of the decline in the labor force participation rate since 2007 is structural in nature. As a result, while we see some of the current low level of the participation rate as indicative of labor market slack, we do not expect the participation rate to show a substantial increase from current levels as labor market conditions continue to improve.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
    • Handle: RePEc:bin:bpeajo:v:45:y:2014:i:2014-02:p:197-275
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Fall2014BPEA_Aaronson_et_al.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nir Jaimovich & Henry E. Siu, 2020. "Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 102(1), pages 129-147, March.
    2. DiNardo, John & Fortin, Nicole M & Lemieux, Thomas, 1996. "Labor Market Institutions and the Distribution of Wages, 1973-1992: A Semiparametric Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(5), pages 1001-1044, September.
    3. Marianna Kudlyak, 2013. "A Cohort Model of Labor Force Participation," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue 1Q, pages 25-43.
    4. Kahn, Lisa B., 2010. "The long-term labor market consequences of graduating from college in a bad economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 303-316, April.
    5. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024," Reports 45010, Congressional Budget Office.
    6. David H. Autor & Mark G. Duggan, 2003. "The Rise in the Disability Rolls and the Decline in Unemployment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 118(1), pages 157-206.
    7. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2014. "Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 3-49, October.
    8. Andreas I. Mueller & Jesse Rothstein & Till M. von Wachter, 2016. "Unemployment Insurance and Disability Insurance in the Great Recession," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34(S1), pages 445-475.
    9. Shigeru Fujita, 2014. "On the causes of declines in the labor force participation rate," Research Rap Special Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, issue Feb.
    10. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024," Reports 45653, Congressional Budget Office.
    11. Robert E. Hall, 2015. "Quantifying the Lasting Harm to the US Economy from the Financial Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 71-128.
    12. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024," Reports 45653, Congressional Budget Office.
    13. Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Song, Jae & Stolyarov, Dmitriy, 2013. "Macroeconomic Determinants of Retirement Timing," IZA Discussion Papers 7744, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    14. Goldin, Claudia, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women’s Employment, Education, and Family," Scholarly Articles 2943933, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    15. David H. Autor & David Dorn & Gordon H. Hanson, 2015. "Untangling Trade and Technology: Evidence from Local Labour Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0(584), pages 621-646, May.
    16. Chinhui Juhn, 1992. "Decline of Male Labor Market Participation: The Role of Declining Market Opportunities," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(1), pages 79-121.
    17. Duval Hernández, Robert & Orraca Romano, Pedro, 2009. "A Cohort Analysis of Labor Participation in Mexico, 1987-2009," IZA Discussion Papers 4371, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    18. Christopher L. Foote & Richard W. Ryan, 2015. "Labor-Market Polarization over the Business Cycle," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 371-413.
    19. Hess T. Chung & Bruce Fallick & Christopher J. Nekarda & David Ratner, 2014. "Assessing the Change in Labor Market Conditions," FEDS Notes 2014-05-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    20. David H. Autor & Mark G. Duggan, 2006. "The Growth in the Social Security Disability Rolls: A Fiscal Crisis Unfolding," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 71-96, Summer.
    21. Mastrobuoni, Giovanni, 2009. "Labor supply effects of the recent social security benefit cuts: Empirical estimates using cohort discontinuities," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(11-12), pages 1224-1233, December.
    22. Régis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2013. "Declining labor force attachment and downward trends in unemployment and participation," Economics Working Papers 1397, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    23. Bruce Fallick & Jonathan F. Pingle, 2006. "A cohort-based model of labor force participation," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-09, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    24. David H. Autor, 2015. "The unsustainable rise of the disability rolls in the United States: causes, consequences and policy options," Chapters, in: John Karl Scholz & Hyungypo Moon & Sang-Hyup Lee (ed.), Social Policies in an Age of Austerity, chapter 5, pages 107-136, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    25. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1982. "Labour Force Participation: Timing and Persistence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 49(5), pages 825-844.
    26. Michelle L. Barnes & Fabia Gumbau-Brisa & Giovanni P. Olivei, 2013. "Cyclical versus secular: decomposing the recent decline in U.S. labor force participation," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    27. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024," Reports 45653, Congressional Budget Office.
    28. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024," Reports 45010, Congressional Budget Office.
    29. Jin Young Lee, 2014. "The Plateau in U.S. Women's Labor Force Participation: A Cohort Analysis," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 53(1), pages 46-71, January.
    30. Acemoglu, Daron & Autor, David, 2011. "Skills, Tasks and Technologies: Implications for Employment and Earnings," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 12, pages 1043-1171, Elsevier.
    31. Kerwin Kofi Charles & Erik Hurst & Matthew J Notowidigdo, 2019. "Housing Booms, Manufacturing Decline and Labour Market Outcomes," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(617), pages 209-248.
    32. Judson, Ruth A. & Owen, Ann L., 1999. "Estimating dynamic panel data models: a guide for macroeconomists," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 9-15, October.
    33. Daniel Aaronson & Jonathan Davis & Luojia Hu, 2012. "Explaining the decline in the U.S. labor force participation rate," Chicago Fed Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Mar.
    34. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024," Reports 45010, Congressional Budget Office.
    35. Michael Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2013. "On the Importance of the Participation Margin for Market Fluctuations," Working Paper Series 2013-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    36. Claudia Goldin, 2006. "The Quiet Revolution That Transformed Women's Employment, Education, and Family," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 1-21, May.
    37. Stephanie Aaronson & Bruce Fallick & Andrew Figura & Jonathan Pingle & William Wascher, 2006. "The Recent Decline in the Labor Force Participation Rate and Its Implications for Potential Labor Supply," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 37(1), pages 69-154.
    38. Congressional Budget Office, 2014. "The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024," Reports 45010, Congressional Budget Office.
    39. Barry P. Bosworth & Gary Burtless, 2010. "Recessions, Wealth Destruction, and the Timing of Retirement," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2010-21, Center for Retirement Research, revised Dec 2010.
    40. Mark Duggan & Scott A. Imberman, 2009. "Why Are the Disability Rolls Skyrocketing? The Contribution of Population Characteristics, Economic Conditions, and Program Generosity," NBER Chapters, in: Health at Older Ages: The Causes and Consequences of Declining Disability among the Elderly, pages 337-379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    41. Stephanie Aaronson & Tomaz Cajner & Bruce Fallick & Felix Galbis-Reig & Christopher Smith & William Wascher, 2014. "Labor Force Participation: Recent Developments and Future Prospects," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 197-275.
    42. Daniel Aaronson & Kyung-Hong Park & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2006. "The decline in teen labor force participation," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 30(Q I), pages 2-18.
    43. Balleer, Almut & Gómez-Salvador, Ramón & Turunen, Jarkko, 2009. "Labour force participation in the euro area: a cohort based analysis," Working Paper Series 1049, European Central Bank.
    44. Hiroshi Kawata & Saori Naganuma, 2010. "Labor Force Participation Rate in Japan," Bank of Japan Review Series 10-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    45. Clifford Clogg, 1982. "Cohort Analysis of Recent Trends in Labor Force Participation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(4), pages 459-479, November.
    46. Benito, Andrew & Bunn, Philip, 2011. "Understanding labour force participation in the United Kingdom," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(1), pages 36-42.
    47. Almut Balleer & Ramon Gomez-Salvador & Jarkko Turunen, 2014. "Labour force participation across Europe: a cohort-based analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1385-1415, June.
    48. International Monetary Fund, 2014. "United States: Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 2014/222, International Monetary Fund.
    49. ASCE Editors, 2009. "2009 Conference Program," Annual Proceedings, The Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, vol. 19.
    50. David M. Blau & Ryan M. Goodstein, 2010. "Can Social Security Explain Trends in Labor Force Participation of Older Men in the United States?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 45(2).
    51. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
    52. Willem Van Zandweghe, 2012. "Interpreting the recent decline in labor force participation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 97(Q I), pages 5-34.
    53. Julie L. Hotchkiss & Fernando Rios-Avila, 2013. "Identifying Factors behind the Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Business and Economic Research, Macrothink Institute, vol. 3(1), pages 257-275, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Francisco Perez‐Arce & María J. Prados, 2021. "The Decline In The U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate: A Literature Review," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 615-652, April.
    2. Congressional Budget Office, 2018. "CBO’s Projection of Labor Force Participation Rates: Working Paper 2018-04," Working Papers 53616, Congressional Budget Office.
    3. Mr. Ravi Balakrishnan & Mai Dao & Mr. Juan Sole & Jeremy Zook, 2015. "Recent U.S. Labor Force Dynamics: Reversible or not?," IMF Working Papers 2015/076, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrew T. Levin, 2014. "Labor Force Participation and Monetary Policy in the Wake of the Great Recession," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(S2), pages 3-49, October.
    5. Courtney C. Coile, 2015. "Economic Determinants Of Workers’ Retirement Decisions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 830-853, September.
    6. Francisco Perez-Arce & Maria J. Prados & Tarra Kohli, 2018. "The Decline in the U.S. Labor Force Participation Rate," Working Papers wp385, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    7. Sudipto Banerjee & David Blau, 2016. "Employment Trends by Age in the United States: Why Are Older Workers Different?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(1), pages 163-199.
    8. John G. Fernald, 2015. "Productivity and Potential Output before, during, and after the Great Recession," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 29(1), pages 1-51.
    9. Jeremy W Bray & Brooks Depro & Dorren McMahon & Marion Siegle & Lee Mobley, 2016. "Disconnected Geography: A Spatial Analysis of Disconnected Youth in the United States," Journal of Labor Research, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 317-342, September.
    10. Verdugo, Gregory & Allègre, Guillaume, 2020. "Labour force participation and job polarization: Evidence from Europe during the Great Recession," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/4igrl22i129kl9t3bjsriribbs is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/4igrl22i129kl9t3bjsriribbs is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Troy Davig & Michael Redmond, 2014. "Accounting for changes in the U.S. budget deficit," Macro Bulletin, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 1-2, December.
    14. Nucci, Francesco & Riggi, Marianna, 2018. "Labor force participation, wage rigidities, and inflation," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 274-292.
    15. Helen Levy & Thomas Buchmueller & Sayeh Nikpay, 2015. "The Effect of Health Reform on Retirement," Working Papers wp329, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center.
    16. Anirvan Banerji & Lakshman Achuthan, 2015. "The “Subpar” Recovery: A Long-standing Misunderstanding," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(2), pages 139-148, March.
    17. R. Vincent Pohl, 2018. "Medicaid And The Labor Supply Of Single Mothers: Implications For Health Care Reform," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(3), pages 1283-1313, August.
    18. Sylvain Leduc & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2014. "Does slower growth imply lower interest rates?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    19. Robert G Murphy & Adam Rohde, 2018. "Rational Bias in Inflation Expectations," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 44(1), pages 153-171, January.
    20. Rodrigo Vergara & Elías Albagli, 2015. "Tasas de Interés de Largo Plazo en Economías Desarrolladas: Tendencias Recientes e Implicancias de Política Monetaria en Chile," Economic Policy Papers Central Bank of Chile 52, Central Bank of Chile.
    21. John Gibson, 2015. "Expanded Social Protection May Do More Harm Than Good: A Pessimistic Review," Asia and the Pacific Policy Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(3), pages 652-659, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    labor force participation rate; labor; decline; labor market; great recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E66 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General Outlook and Conditions
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bin:bpeajo:v:45:y:2014:i:2014-02:p:197-275. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Haowen Chen (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esbrous.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.