Author
Listed:
- Laurent FAIVRE
- Camille LAMBERT-GIRAULT
- Emmanuel POINT
Abstract
Against a backdrop of persistently low interest rates, the French residential real estate market proved extremely dynamic in 2018. Total outstanding housing loans exceeded the EUR 1,000 billion mark at the end of the year. Due to the structural features of the French market (preponderance of fixed-rate and guaranteed loans), credit risk remains limited. Nonetheless, lending standards have gradually been eased and in some cases are back in line with the levels observed in 2007-08. This is contributing to the rise in borrowing, and helping to push prices up faster than household income. The easing of lending standards concerns all categories of borrower. However, given that a high share of new loans are to borrowers who already own property and who have higher earnings and financial resources, the risks appear to be contained, as demonstrated by the low rate of loan delinquencies. The easing of lending standards and trajectory of household indebtedness raise concerns as to the sustainability of recent developments. As a result, the Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de resolution (ACPR – Prudential Supervision and Resolution Authority) and Banque de France are keeping a close eye on the risks linked to the financing of the residential real estate market. Dans un environnement de taux d’intérêt durablement bas, le marché de l’immobilier résidentiel a été très dynamique en 2018. L’encours a franchi la barre des 1 000 milliards d’euros en fin d’année. Les caractéristiques structurelles du marché français limitent le risque de crédit (prépondérance des taux fixes et des sûretés). Les critères d’octroi des crédits se sont néanmoins progressivement assouplis et retrouvent parfois les niveaux observés en 2007 2008. Cela contribue à la dynamique des crédits et à une hausse des prix plus rapide que celle des revenus des ménages. Cet assouplissement touche l’ensemble des emprunteurs. Cependant, compte tenu de la part, dans la production, des emprunteurs déjà propriétaires disposant de revenus et d’une surface financière plus importante, les risques semblent contenus comme en témoigne la faible sinistralité des crédits. Cet assouplissement et la dynamique de l’endettement des ménages posent des questions sur la soutenabilité de ces évolutions. Dans ce contexte, l’Autorité de contrôle prudentiel et de résolution et la Banque de France restent particulièrement vigilantes quant à l’évolution des risques liés au financement du marché de l’immobilier résidentiel.
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JEL classification:
- G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
- R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
- R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
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