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Clunkers or Junkers? Adverse Selection in a Vehicle Retirement Program

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  • Ryan Sandler

Abstract

Vehicle retirement programs have become popular tools of public policy for reducing pollution. The efficacy of these programs is difficult to measure, as it is difficult to tell how much a vehicle would have polluted otherwise. I estimate that counterfactual using data from a long-running local program in California. I utilize the universe of emissions inspections from the California Smog Check Program to construct vehicle usage histories of retired cars and similar vehicles which did not retire early. I find that the program's cost-effectiveness steadily declined over time because of the depreciation of the vehicle fleet, while adverse selection remained a problem throughout. (JEL D82, Q53, Q58, R48)

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Sandler, 2012. "Clunkers or Junkers? Adverse Selection in a Vehicle Retirement Program," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 253-281, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejpol:v:4:y:2012:i:4:p:253-81
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/pol.4.4.253
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Shihe Fu & V. Brian Viard, 2022. "A mayors perspective on tackling air pollution," Chapters, in: Charles K.Y. Leung (ed.), Handbook of Real Estate and Macroeconomics, chapter 16, pages 413-437, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Nicholas J. Sanders & Ryan Sandler, 2020. "Technology and the Effectiveness of Regulatory Programs over Time: Vehicle Emissions and Smog Checks with a Changing Fleet," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(3), pages 587-618.
    3. Mark Hoekstra & Steven L. Puller & Jeremy West, 2017. "Cash for Corollas: When Stimulus Reduces Spending," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 1-35, July.
    4. Junji Xiao & Xiaolan Zhou & Wei‐Min Hu, 2017. "Welfare Analysis Of The Vehicle Quota System In China," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(2), pages 617-650, May.
    5. Balaguer, Jacint & Pernías, José C. & Ripollés, Jordi, 2023. "Is vehicle scrapping affected by low-emission zones? The case of Madrid," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    6. Christopher R. Knittel & Ryan Sandler, 2013. "The Welfare Impact of Indirect Pigouvian Taxation: Evidence from Transportation," NBER Working Papers 18849, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Paul J. Burke, 2016. "Undermined by Adverse Selection: Australia's Direct Action Abatement Subsidies," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 35(3), pages 216-229, September.
    8. Alberini, Anna & Bigano, Andrea, 2015. "How effective are energy-efficiency incentive programs? Evidence from Italian homeowners," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(S1), pages 76-85.
    9. Anna Alberini, Will Gans, and Charles Towe, 2016. "Free Riding, Upsizing, and Energy Efficiency Incentives in Maryland Homes," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    10. Helm, Ines & Koch, Nicolas & Rohlf, Alexander, 2023. "The effects of cash for clunkers on local air quality," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    11. Alberini, Anna & Bareit, Markus & Filippini, Massimo & Martinez-Cruz, Adan L., 2018. "The impact of emissions-based taxes on the retirement of used and inefficient vehicles: The case of Switzerland," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 234-258.
    12. Nishitateno, Shuhei & Burke, Paul J., 2021. "Willingness to pay for clean air: Evidence from diesel vehicle registration restrictions in Japan," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    13. Sabine S. Lange & Sean E. Mulholland & Michael E. Honeycutt, 2018. "What Are the Net Benefits of Reducing the Ozone Standard to 65 ppb? An Alternative Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-31, July.
    14. Werner Antweiler & Sumeet Gulati, 2013. "Market-Based Policies for Green Motoring in Canada," Canadian Public Policy, University of Toronto Press, vol. 39(s2), pages 81-94, August.
    15. Klößner, Stefan & Pfeifer, Gregor, 2015. "Synthesizing Cash for Clunkers: Stabilizing the Car Market, Hurting the Environment," VfS Annual Conference 2015 (Muenster): Economic Development - Theory and Policy 113207, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    16. Antweiler, Werner & Gulati, Sumeet, 2015. "Scrapping for clean air: Emissions savings from the BC SCRAP-IT program," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 198-214.
    17. Li, Shanjun & Wang, Binglin & Zhou, Hui, 2024. "Decarbonizing passenger transportation in developing countries: Lessons and perspectives1," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • R48 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Government Pricing and Policy

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    1. Clunkers or Junkers? Adverse Selection in a Vehicle Retirement Program (American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 2012) in ReplicationWiki

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