IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v99y2009i3p1053-69.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market*

* This paper has been replicated

Author

Listed:
  • Lutz Kilian

Abstract

Shocks to the real price of oil may reflect oil supply shocks, shocks to the global demand for all industrial commodities, or demand shocks that are specific to the crude oil market. Each shock has different effects on the real price of oil and on US macroeconomic aggregates. Changes in the composition of shocks help explain why regressions of macroeconomic aggregates on oil prices tend to be unstable. Evidence that the recent surge in oil prices was driven primarily by global demand shocks helps explain why this shock so far has failed to cause a major recession in the United States. (JEL E31, E32, Q41, Q43)

Suggested Citation

  • Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:99:y:2009:i:3:p:1053-69
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/aer.99.3.1053
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/aer.99.3.1053
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: http://www.aeaweb.org/aer/data/june09/20070211_data.zip
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. den Haan, Wouter J. & Sumner, Steven W., 2004. "The comovement between real activity and prices in the G7," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(6), pages 1333-1347, December.
    2. Goncalves, Silvia & Kilian, Lutz, 2004. "Bootstrapping autoregressions with conditional heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 89-120, November.
    3. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
    4. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
    5. den Haan, Wouter J., 2000. "The comovement between output and prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 3-30, August.
    6. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Wu, Wenfeng, 2016. "Disentangling the determinants of real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 363-373.
    2. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2013. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 427-507, Elsevier.
    3. Lutz Kilian & Cheolbeom Park, 2009. "The Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On The U.S. Stock Market," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1267-1287, November.
    4. Kilian, Lutz & Rebucci, Alessandro & Spatafora, Nikola, 2009. "Oil shocks and external balances," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 181-194, April.
    5. Lutz Kilian, 2010. "Oil Price Shocks, Monetary Policy and Stagflation," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Renée Fry & Callum Jones & Christopher Kent (ed.),Inflation in an Era of Relative Price Shocks, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    6. Ricardo Lagos & Shengxing Zhang, 2020. "Turnover Liquidity and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(6), pages 1635-1672, June.
    7. Lucas W. Davis & Lutz Kilian, 2011. "Estimating the effect of a gasoline tax on carbon emissions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(7), pages 1187-1214, November.
    8. Michele Piffer & Maximilian Podstawski, 2018. "Identifying Uncertainty Shocks Using the Price of Gold," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 128(616), pages 3266-3284, December.
    9. Herwartz, Helmut & Lütkepohl, Helmut, 2014. "Structural vector autoregressions with Markov switching: Combining conventional with statistical identification of shocks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 183(1), pages 104-116.
    10. Lutz Kilian & Clara Vega, 2011. "Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(2), pages 660-671, May.
    11. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2018. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States: Reply to Jentsch and Lunsford," Working Papers 1805, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    12. Atems, Bebonchu & Kapper, Devin & Lam, Eddery, 2015. "Do exchange rates respond asymmetrically to shocks in the crude oil market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 227-238.
    13. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "The Economic Effects of Energy Price Shocks," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 46(4), pages 871-909, December.
    14. Imran Shah, 2012. "Revisiting the Dynamic Effects of Oil Price Shock on Small Developing Economies," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 12/626, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    15. Vincent Brémond & Emmanuel Hache & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2016. "The Oil Price and Exchange Rate Relationship Revisited: A time-varying VAR parameter approach," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 13(1), pages 97-131, June.
    16. Tarek Tawfik Yousef Alkhateeb & Zafar Ahmad Sultan, 2019. "Oil Price and Economic Growth: The Case of Indian Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 9(3), pages 274-279.
    17. Rajeev Dhawan & Karsten Jeske & Pedro Silos, 2010. "Productivity, Energy Prices and the Great Moderation: A New Link," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 715-724, July.
    18. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Mignon, Valérie & Sallenave, Audrey, 2015. "Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 232-247.
    19. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2009. "Non-linear unit root properties of crude oil production," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 109-118, January.
    20. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2015. "Forecasting the real prices of crude oil under economic and statistical constraints," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 599-608.

    Replication

    This item has been replicated by:
  • Kim, Gil & Vera, David, 2019. "Recent drivers of the real oil price: Revisiting and extending Kilian's (2009) findings," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 201-210.
  • More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Lists

    This item is featured on the following reading lists, Wikipedia, or ReplicationWiki pages:
    1. Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market (AER 2009) in ReplicationWiki

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:99:y:2009:i:3:p:1053-69. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.