# University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER)

# RCER Working Papers

Postal: University of Rochester, Center for Economic Research, Department of Economics, Harkness 231 Rochester, New York 14627 U.S.A.

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### 1994

**383 Tarrifs and Aggregate Economic Activity: Lessons from the Great Depression***by*Crucini, M.J. & Kahn, J.**382 Business Cycles in a Small Open Economy***by*Correia, I. & Rabelo, S. & Naves, J.C.**381 Uncertain Lifetime and Saving***by*Leung, S.F.

### 1993

**370 On the Existence of Nonoptimal Equilibria***by*Greenwood, J. & Huffman, G.W.**369 The Core and Competitive Equilibria in Finite Economies***by*McKenzie, L.W.**368 Technology Choice, Overtacking and Comparative Advantage***by*Ohayama, M. & Jones, R.W.**367 Inter-Industrial Mobility and the Cyclical Upgrading of labor***by*Bils, M. & Mclaughlin, K.J.**366 Dynamic Deterence Theory***by*Leung, S.F.**365 A New Regression Specification Error Test***by*Leung, S.F. & Yu, S.**364 Unit Roots In Macroeconomics: A Survey***by*Ogaki, M.**363 The Rate of Time Preference, The Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution, and the leval of Wealth***by*Ogaki, M. & Atkeson, A.**362 Population-Monotonic Solutions in Public Good Economies with Single- Peaked Preferences***by*Ching, S. & Thomson, W.**361 Short-Run Independence of Monetary Policy Under Pagged Exchange Rates and Effects of Money on Exchange Rates and Interest Rates***by*Stockman, A.C. & Ohnian, L.E.**360 "Divide and Permute" And the Implementation of Solutions to the Problem of Fair Division***by*Thomson, W.**359 Does R&D Contribute to Economic Growth in Developing Contries?***by*Birdsall, Rhee, C.**355 On the Cyclical Allocation of Risk***by*Gomme, P. & Greenwood, J.**350 The International Diversification Puzzle is Worse than you Think***by*Baxter, M. & Jermann, U.J.**349 CCR: A User Guide***by*Ogaki, M.**347 Household Production in Real Business Cycle Thoery***by*Greenwood, J. & Rogerson, R. & Wright, R.**346 Achieving General Consumption Set in an Infinite Model of Competitive Equilibrium***by*McKenzie, L.W.**345 Dropping Out of school: Further Evidence on the Role of School Quality in Developing Countries***by*Hanushek, E.A. & Lavy, V.**344 Selection in Insurance Market***by*Landsburg, S.E.**343 The Methodology of Normative Economies***by*Landsburg, S.E.

### 1992

**342 Are Consumer Durables Important for Business Cycles***by*Baxter, M.**341 The Replacement Principle in Private Good Economies with Single- Peaked Preferences***by*Thomson, W.**340 The Replacement Principle in Public Good Economies with Single-Peaked Preferences***by*Thomson, W.**339 Information Aggregation and Strategic Trading in Speculative Markets***by*Dutta, P.K. & Madhavan, A.**338 Price Continuity Rules and Insider Trading***by*Dutta, P.K. & Madhavan, A.**337 On the Choice Between Sample Selection and Two-Part Models***by*Leung, S.F. & Yu, S.**336 Financial Market Linkages and the International Transmission of Fiscal Policy***by*Baxter, M.**335 Residual-Based Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime Shifts***by*Gregory, A.W. & Hansen, B.E.**334 Existence of Equilibrium with Nonconvexities and Finitely Many Agents***by*Berliant, M. & Dunz, K.**333 Taxation, Financing, and Corporate Investment in Plant and Equipment: A Macro-Econometric Model of Corporate Real and Financial Decisions***by*Nadeau, S.J. & Strauss, R.P.**332 Risk Aversion and International Markets: Does Asset Trade Smooth Income?***by*Feeney, J. & Jones, R.W.**331 Regression with Non-Stationary Variances***by*Hansen, B.E.**330 Cotrending and the Stationarity of the Real Interest Rate***by*Chapman, D.A.**329 Consistent Extensions***by*Thomson, W.**328 Risk, Seasonality and School Attendance: Evidence from Rural India***by*Jacoby, H. & Skoufias, E.**327 The Design of Bank Loan Contracts, Collateral, and Renegociation***by*Gorton, G. & Khan, J.**326 Liquidity of Secondary Capital Markets: Allocative Efficiency and the Maturity of the Capital Stock***by*Bencivenga, V. & Smith, B. & Starr, R.M.**325 Do Open Market Operations Matter? Theory and Evidence from the Second Bank of the Unites States***by*Highfield, R.A. & O,Hara, M. & Smith, B.**324 Four Econometric Fashions and the Kalman Filter Alternative***by*Bomhoff, E.J.**323 Uncertain Lifetime, the Theory of the Consumer, and the Life Cycle Hypothesis***by*Leung, S.F.**322 Autoregressive Conditional Density Estimation***by*Hansen, B.E.**321 An Economic Analsysis of the Age-Crime Profile***by*Leung, S.F.**320 Uniform Tariffs in General Equilibrium-A Simple Model***by*Marjit, S.**319 Self-Financing Educational Investments: The Quality Imperative in Developing Countries***by*Hanushek, E.A. & Gomes-Neto, J.B. & Harbison, R.W.**318 Educational Wage Differential in Korea***by*Kwark, N.S. & Rhee, C.**317 Non-Cooperative, Cooperative and Delegative R&D***by*Marjit, S.**314 An Introduction to the Generalized Method of Moments***by*Ogaki, M.**313 Superior Technology and LDC Firms***by*Beladi, H. & Marjit, S.**312 International Trade and Endogenous Production Structures***by*Jones, R.W. & Marjit, S.**311 Factor Scarcity, Factor Abundance and Attitudes Towards protection: The 3x3 Model***by*Jones, R.W.**310 Foreign Capital and Protectionism***by*Beladi, H. & Marjit, S.**306 Health and Schooling: Evidence and Policy Implications for Developping Countries***by*Batista Gomes, J. & Hanushek, E.A. & Helio Leite, R.

### 1991

**316 Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade***by*Baxter, M. & Crucini, M.**315 Testing for Heteroskedasticity***by*Pagan, A.R. & Pak, Y.**309 A competitive general equilibrium model of technology transfer, innovation and obsolescence***by*Marjit, S.**308 To Transfer Or Not To Transfer The Best Technology Under Threat Of Entry- The Case Of Price Competition***by*Kabiraja, T. & Marjit, S.**307 Multinational Entry, Expropriation and Contract Compliance Under a Boycott Threat***by*Moitra, B. & Marjit, S.**305 Consumption, Income, and Cointegration Further Analysis***by*han, H.L. & Ogaki, M.**304 A Consistent Test for the Null of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root***by*Han, H.L. & Ogaki, M.**303 Wealth-Varying Intertemporal Elasticities of Substitution Evidence from Panel and Aggregate Data***by*Atkeson, A. & Ogaki, M.**302 Population-Monotonic Solutions to the Problem of Fair Division when Preferences are Single-Peaked***by*Thomson, W.**301 Resource-Monotonic Solutions to the Problem of Fair Divosion when Preferences are Single-Peaked***by*Thomson, W.**300 Optimal Pricipal Agent Contracts for a Class of Incitive chemes: A Characterization and the Rate of Approach to Efficency***by*Dutta, P.K. & Radner, R.**299 The Folk Theorem for Discounted Repeated Games: A New Condition***by*Abreu, D. & Dutta, P.**298 A Foundation of Location Theory : Exstence of Equilibrium, the Welfare Theorems and Core***by*Berliant, M.C. & Dunz, K.**297 State and Federal Tax Equity: Estimates Before and After the Tax Reform Act of 1986***by*Berliant, M.C. & Strauss, R.P.**296 Inference when a Nuisance Parameter is Not Identified Under the Null Hypothesis***by*Hansen, B.E.**295 The Causes and Effects of Grade Repetition: Evidence from Brazil***by*Gome-Neto, J.B. & Hanushek, E.A.**294 Consistent Allocation Rules in Atomless Economies***by*Thompson, W. & Zhou, L.**293 A Folk Theorem for Stochastic Games***by*Dutta, P.K.**292 Currency Elasticity and Banking Panics: Theory and Evidence***by*Champ, B. & Snith, B.D. & Williamson, D.S.**291 Horizontal and Vertical Equity : A Theoretical Framework and Empirical Results for the Federal Income Tax 1966- 1987***by*Strauss, R.P. & Berliant, M.C.**290 Intermediation and the Equilibrium Allocation of Investment Capital: Implications for Economic for Economic Development***by*Boyd, J.h. & Smith, B.D.**289 The Equilibrium Allocation of Investment Capital in the Presence of Adverse Selection and Costly State Verification***by*Boyd, J.h. & Smith, B.D.**288 On Political Economy of Income Taxation***by*Berliant, M. & Gouveia, M.**287 Government Borrowing using Bonds with Randomly Determined Returns : Welfare Improving Randomization in the Context of Deficit Finance***by*Smith, B.D. & Villamil, A.P.**286 Finite Horizon Optimization : Sensitivity and Continuity in Multi- Sectoral Models***by*Dutta, P.K.**285 A Time Series Analysis of Real Wages, Consumption, and Asset returns Under Optimal Libor Contrecting : A Cointegration-Euler Equation Approach***by*Cooley, T.F. & Ogaki, M.**284 Borrowing Constraints and School Attendance: Theory and Evidence from a Low Income Country***by*Jacoby, H.**283 Adverse Selection and Moral hazard in a Repeated Elections Models***by*Sundadam, R.K. & Banks, J.**282 Fundamental Value and Investment: Micro Data Evidence***by*Rhee, C. & Rhee, W.**281 Inference in Cointegrated Models Using VAR Prewhitening to Estimate Shortrun Dynamics***by*Park, J.Y. & Ogaki, M.**280 Seemingly Unrelated Canonical Cointegrating Regressions***by*Park, J.Y. & Ogaki, M.**279 The Likelihood Test Under Non-Standard Conditions: Testing the Markov Trend Model of GNP***by*Hansen, B.E.**278 Two Index Theorems for Bandit Problems***by*Banks, J.s. & Sunderam, R.K.**277 Denumerable-Armed Bandits***by*Banks, J.s. & Sunderam, R.K.**276 Financial Markets, Specialization, and Learning by Doing***by*Cooley, T.F. & Smith, B.D.**275a Swedish Business Cycles : 1861-1988***by*Englund, P. & Persson, T. & Svensson, L.E.O.**275 Currency Conertibility : When and How ? A Contribution to the Bulgarian Debate!***by*Bomhoff, E.J.**273 Stability of Velocity in the G-& Countries ; A Kalman Filter Approach***by*Bomhoff, E.J.**272 Collusion, Discounting and Dynamic Games***by*Dutta, P.K.**271 A Job Search Model of Efficiency Wage Theory***by*Park, D. & Rhee, C.**270 Dynamic Insider Trading***by*Dutta,, P. & Madhavan, A.**269 On the Parametric Continuity of Dynamic Programming Problems***by*Dutta,, P. & Majumdar, M. & Sundaram, R.**268 The Allocation of Capital and Time Over the Business Cycle***by*Greenwood, J. & Hercowitz, Z.**267 Maximizing or Minimizing Expected Returns Prior to Hitting Zero***by*Dutta,, P..K.**266 The Welfare Costs of Moderate Inflations***by*Cooley, T.F. & Hansen, G.D.**265 Tax Distortions in a Neoclassical Monetary Economy***by*Cooley, T.F. & Hansen, G.D.**264 What Do Discounted Optima Converge To? A Theory of Discount Rate Asymptotics in Economic Models***by*Dutta, P.K.**263 A Theory of stopping Time Games with Applications to Product Innovations and Asset Sales***by*Dutta, P.K. & Rustichini, A.**262 Innovation and Product Differentiation***by*Dutta, P.K. & Rustichini, A. & Lach, S.**261 How to Make the Fine Fit the Corporate Crime? An Analysis of Static and Dynamic Optimal Punishment Theories***by*Leung, S.F.**260 The Business Cycle with Nominal Contracts***by*Cho, J.O. & Cooley, T.F.**259 (s,S) Equilibria in Stochastic games with an Application to Product Innovations***by*Dutta, P. & Rustichini, A.

### 1990

**258 Limit Integration Theorems for Monotone Functions with Applications to Dynamic Programming***by*Dutta, P. & Majumdar, M.**249 Aggregation Of Intratemporal Preferences Under Complete Market***by*Ogaki, M.**248 Ustralian Stock Market Volatility: 1875-1987***by*Pagan, A.R. & Kearns, P.**247 Estimating Linear Quadratic Models With Integrated Processes***by*Gregogy, A.W. & Pagan, A.R. & Smith, G.W.**246 On The Concept Of Economic Freedom***by*Jones, A.C. & Stockman, A.C.**245 Productive Externalities And Cyclical Volatility***by*King, R.G. & Baxter, M.**244 Fiscal Policy In General Equilibrium***by*King, R.G. & Baxter, M.**243 Indivisible Assets, Equilibrium, And The Value Of Intermediary Output***by*Cooley, T.F. & Smith, R.D.**242 How Different Can Strategic Models Be? Non-Existence, Chaos And Underconsumption In Markov-Perfect Equilibria***by*Dutta, P.K. & Sundaram, R.K.**241 Stochastic Games Of Resource Allocation: Existence Theorems For Discounted And Undiscounted Models***by*Dutta, P.K. & Sundaram, R.K.**240 Engel'S Law And Saving***by*Atkeson, A. & Ogaki, M.**239 A Class Of Bandit Problems Yielding Myopic Optimal Strategies***by*Banks, J.S. & Sundaram, R.K.**238 Debt, Asymmetric Information, And Bankruptcy***by*Khan, J.A.**237 The Life-Cycle Of A Competitive Industry: Theory And Measurement***by*Macdonald, G.M. & Jovanovic, B.**236 A Specification Test For A Model Of Engel'S Law And Saving***by*Ogaki, M. & Atkeson, A.**235 Incumbents, Challengers, And Bandits: Bayesian Learning In A Dynamic Choice Model***by*Banks, J.S. & Sundaram, R.K.**234 Incentive Compatible Income Taxation, Individual Revenue Requirements And Welfare***by*Berliant, M. & Gouveia, M.**233 The Stock Market, Profit And Investment***by*Blanchard, O. & Rhee, C. & Summers, L.**232 Choosing The Lesser Evil-Self Immiserization As A Strategic Choice***by*Marjit, S. & Sengupta, K.**231 Monotonic And Consistent Solutions To The Problem Of Fair Allocation When Preferences Are Single-Peaked***by*Thomson, W.**230 A Powerful, Simple Test For Cointegration Using Cochrane- Orcutt***by*Hansen, B.E.**229 Rigid Wages?***by*Mclaughlin, K.J.**228 Engel'S Law And Cointegration***by*Ogaki, M.**227 World Real Interest Rates***by*Barro, R.J. & Martin, X.S.**226 Regression Theory When Variances Are Non-Stationary***by*Hansen, B.E.**224 Explaining Saving/Investment Correlation***by*Baxter, M. & Crucini, M.J.**223 The Seasonal And Cyclical Behavior Of Inventories***by*Kahn, J.A.**222 Interest Rate Rules And Nominal Determinacy***by*Boyd Iii, J.H. & Dotsey, M.**221 The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem: Links To Dominant Diagonals***by*Jones, R.W. & Marjit, S. & Mitra, T.**220 The Stolper-Samuelson Theorem, The Leamer Triangle, And The Produced Mobile Factor Structure***by*Jones, R.W. & Marjit, S.**219 Equal Sacrifice And Incentive Compatible Income Taxation***by*Berliant, M. & Gouveia, M.**218 Sectoral Employment And Cyclical Fluctuations In An Adverse Selection Model***by*Smith, B.D.**217 Alonso'S Discrete Population Model Of Land Use: Efficient Allocations And Competitive Equilibria***by*Berliant, M. & Fujita, M.**216 I'M Not A High Quality Firm But I Play One On T.V.: A Model Of Signaling Product Quality***by*Hertzendorf, M.N.**215 Two-Sided Uncertainty In The Monopoly Agenda Setter Model***by*Banks, J.S.**214 Deficits, Inflation, And The Banking System In Developing Countries: The Optimal Degree Of Financial Repression***by*Bencivenga, V.R. & Smith, B.D.**213 General Properties Of Equilibrium Behavior In A Class Of Asymmetric Information Games***by*Banks, J.S.**212 A Chi-Square Test For Unit Root***by*Kahn, J.A. & Ogaki, M.

### 1989

**211 Endogenous Formation Of A City Without Externalities Or Market Imperfections***by*Berliant, M. & Wang, P.**210 Money And Business Cycles A Real Business Cycle Interpretation***by*Plosser, C.I.**209 A Cointegration Approach To Estimating Preference Parameters***by*Ogaki, M. & Park, Y.Y.**208 Intertemporal Asset-Pricing Relationships In Barter And Monetary Economies: An Empirical Analysis***by*Finn, M.G. & Hoffman, D.L. & Schlagenhauf, D.E.**207 Value And Capital - In The Equilibrium Business Cycle Program***by*King, R.G.**206 Transitional Dynamics And Economic Growth In The Neoclassical Model***by*King, R.G. & Rebelo, S.T.**205 Low Frequency Filtering And Real Business Cycles***by*King, R.G. & Rebelo, S.T.**204 Real Business Cycles And The Test Of The Adelmans***by*King, R.G. & Plosser, C.I.**203 Multiple And Sunspot Equilibria Under Interest Rate And Money Supply Rules***by*Smith, B.D.**202 Adverse Selection In The Overlapping Generations Model***by*Azariadis, C. & Smith, B.D.**201 Economic Growth In A Cross Section Of Countries***by*Barro, R.J.**199 A Simple Estimator For Simultaneous Models With Censored Endogenous Regressors***by*Vella, F.**198 Understanding Real Business Cycles***by*Plosser, C.I.**195 Trade And Protection In Vertically Related Markets***by*Jones, R.W. & Spencer, B.J.**194 Vertical Foreclosure And International Trade Policy***by*Jones, R.W. & Spencer, B.J.**193 Transversality Condition And Optimality In A Class Of Infinite Horizon Continuous Time Economic Models***by*Leung, S.F.**192 The Consistency Principle***by*Thomson, A.**191 Market Equilibria With Not-For-Profit Firms***by*Phelps, C.E. & Sened, I.**190 Entry And Exit In Perfect Competition - Part I: Theory***by*Jovanovic, B. & Macdonald, G.M.**189 Bargaining Problems With Claims***by*Chun, Y. & Thomson, W.**188 The Cyclical Behavior Of Prices***by*Cooley, T.F. & Ohanian, L.E.**187 New Classicals And Keynesians, Or The Good Guys And The Bad Guys***by*Barro, R.J.**184 Intertemporal Substitution And Lambda-Constant Comparative Statics***by*Mclaughlin, K.J.**183 Repeated Games, Finite Automata, And Complexity***by*Banks, J.S. & Sundaram, R.K.**182 New Predictions From The Economics Of Unionism***by*Macdonald, G.M. & Robinson, C.**181 Nonparametric Hazard Estimation With Time Varying Discrete Covariates***by*Leung, S.F. & Wong, W.H.**180 Migration Between Home Country And Diaspora: An Economic Analysis***by*Hercowitz, Z. & Pines, D.**179 Output Growth, The Real Wage, And Employment Fluctuations***by*Hercovitz, Z. & Sampson, M.**178 No-Envy, Consistency And Monotonicity In Economics With Indivisibilities***by*Tadenuma, K. & Thompson, W.**177 Cooperative Models Of Bargaining***by*Thomson, W.**176 Real Expectations: A Harmony Theoretic Approach To Decision Making Under Uncertainty***by*El-Gamal, M.A.**175 Credible Borrowing Constraints With Renegotiable Debt***by*Kahn, J.A.**174 Testing For Contracting Effects On Employment***by*Bils, M.**173 Externalities And Asymmetric Information***by*Greenwood, J. & Macfee, R.P.**172 The Tragedy Of The Commons? A Characterization Of Stationary Perfect Equilibrium In Dynamic Games***by*Dutta, P.K. & Sundaram, R.K.**171 Rational Response To Unprecedented Policies: The 1979 Change In Federal Reserve Operating Procedures***by*Baxter, M.**165 The Positive Economics Of Methodology***by*Kahn, J.A. & Landsburg, S.E. & Stockman, A.C.

### 1988

**225 Public Policy And Economic Growth: Developing Neoclassical Implications***by*King, R.G. & Rebelo, S.**166 Multipliers In Equilibrium Business Cycle Models***by*Baxter, M. & King, R.G.**160 Competitive Diffusion***by*Jovanovic, B. & Macdonald, G.M.**159 Some Consequences Of Credit Rationing In An Endogenous Growth Model***by*Bencivenga, V.R. & Smith, B.D.**158 Symmetric Stochastic Games Of Resource Extraction: The Existence Of Non- Randomized Stationary Equilibrium***by*Majumdar, M.K. & Sundaram, R.**157 A Test Of The Harris Ergodicity Of Stationary Dynamical Economic Models***by*Domowitz, I. & El-Gamal, M.**156 Raw Materials, Processing Activities And Protectionism***by*Jones, R.W. & Spencer, B.J.**155 The Inflation Tax In A Real Business Cycle Model***by*Cooley, T.F. & Hansen, G.D.**154 Savings, Investment And International Capital Flows***by*Tesar, L.L.**153 Specialization, Transactions Technologies, And Money Growth***by*Cole, H. & Stockman, A.C.**152 Moral Hazard, Imperfect Risk-Sharing, And The Behavior Of Asset Returns***by*Kahn, J.A.**151 Asymptotic Likelihood Based Prediction Functions***by*Cooley, T.F. & Parke, W.R.**150 A Business Cycle Model With Private Information***by*Smith, B.D.**149 A Model Of Nominal Contracts***by*Smith, B.D.**147 Simple Methods Of Estimation And Inference For Systems Characterized By Deterministic Chaos***by*El-Gamal, M.**146 Appraising The Options For International Trade In Services***by*Jones, R.W. & Ruane, F.**145 The Role Of Services In Production And International Trade: A Theoretical Framework***by*Jones, R.W. & Kierzkowski, H.**144 Foreign Monopoly And Optimal Tariffs For The Small Open Economy***by*Takemori, S. & Jones, R.W.