# Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis

# Working Papers

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Phone: (612) 204-5000

Web page: http://minneapolisfed.org/

More information through EDIRC

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### 1995

### 1994

**539 Variable selection and model comparison in regression***by*John F. Geweke**538 The optimal quantity of debt***by*S. Rao Aiyagari & Ellen R. McGrattan**532 Bayesian comparison of econometric models***by*John F. Geweke**531 Are banks dead? or, are the reports greatly exaggerated?***by*John H. Boyd & Mark Gertler**528 Inflation and money growth under alternative monetary standards***by*Arthur J. Rolnick & Warren E. Weber**508 Optimal capital income taxation with incomplete markets, borrowing constraints, and constant discounting***by*S. Rao Aiyagari**500 Ex-dividend price behavior of common stocks***by*John H. Boyd & Ravi Jagannathan**480 An evaluation of the performance of an applied general equilibrium model of the Spanish economy***by*Timothy J. Kehoe & Clemente Polo & Ferran Sancho

### 1993

**510 Patterns of exchange, fiat money, and the welfare costs of inflation***by*Irasema Alonso**502 Uninsured idiosyncratic risk and aggregate saving***by*S. Rao Aiyagari

### 1992

**491 Modeling the dynamic impact of North American free trade***by*Timothy J. Kehoe**445 Debt constrained asset markets***by*Timothy J. Kehoe & David K. Levine

### 1991

**478 Liquidity effects, monetary policy, and the business cycle (technical appendix)***by*Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum**473 Optimal fiscal policy in a stochastic growth model (technical appendix)***by*V. V. Chari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Patrick J. Kehoe**460 Computation and multiplicity of equilibria***by*Timothy J. Kehoe**428 Existence of steady states with positive consumption in the Kiyotaki-Wright model***by*S. Rao Aiyagari & Neil Wallace**393 Walras' Law and nonoptimal equilibria in overlapping generations models***by*S. Rao Aiyagari

### 1990

**467 Computational algorithms for solving variants of Fuerst's model***by*Lawrence J. Christiano**459 Algorithms for explaining forecast revisions***by*Richard M. Todd**456 The output, employment, and interest rate effects of government consumption***by*S. Rao Aiyagari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum**436 On characterizing equilibria of economies with externalities and taxes as solutions to optimization problems***by*Timothy J. Kehoe & David K. Levine & Paul M. Romer**404 The optimum quantity of money revisited***by*Timothy J. Kehoe & David K. Levine & Michael Woodford

### 1988

**385 Organizations in economic analysis***by*John H. Boyd & Edward C. Prescott & Bruce D. Smith**384 Implementing Bayesian vector autoregressions***by*Richard M. Todd**320 Banking panics, information, and rational expectations equilibrium***by*S. Rao Aiyagari

### 1987

**448 Comment on Romer, "Crazy explanations for the productivity slowdown"***by*Lawrence J. Christiano**427 Intertemporal substitution and smoothness of consumption***by*Lawrence J. Christiano**426 International real business cycles***by*David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland**380 Why does inventory investment fluctuate so much? Or: does the stock market dance to its own music? (technical appendix)***by*Lawrence J. Christiano**369 Money does Granger-cause output in the bivariate output-money relation (technical appendix)***by*Lawrence J. Christiano & Lars Ljungqvist**360 The banking crisis of the 1930s: new evidence from bank examination records***by*Arthur J. Rolnick**357 Temporal aggregation and the stock adjustment model of inventories***by*Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum**356 Equilibrium existence in an overlapping generations model with altruistic preferences***by*S. Rao Aiyagari**341 Household choices in equilibrium***by*Sumru Altug & Robert A. Miller**338 Dynamic properties of two approximate solutions to a particular growth model***by*Lawrence J. Christiano**325 Nonmonetary steady states in stationary overlapping generations models with long lived agents and discounting: multiplicity, optimality, and consumption smoothing***by*S. Rao Aiyagari**306 Temporal aggregation and structural inference in macroeconomics***by*Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum**301 Estimating continuous time rational expectations models in frequency domain: a case study***by*Lawrence J. Christiano

### 1986

**312 Optimality and monetary equilibria in stationary overlapping generations models with long lived agents: growth versus discounting***by*S. Rao Aiyagari**304 A continuous time, general equilibrium, inventory-sales model***by*Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum**303 On the accuracy of linear quadratic approximations: an example***by*Lawrence J. Christiano**302 Temporal aggregation bias and government policy evaluation***by*Lawrence J. Christiano**297 The limits of counter-cyclical monetary policy: an analysis based on optimal control theory and vector autoregressions***by*Robert B. Litterman**296 Bank holding company diversification into nonbank lines of business: the effects on risk and rate of return***by*John H. Boyd & Stanley L. Graham**293 Government debt and taxes***by*Thomas J. Sargent**277 Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence***by*Sumru Altug

### 1985

**361 A continuous time, general equilibrium, inventory-sales model***by*Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum**280 Identification and estimation of a model of hyperinflation with a continuum of "sunspot" equilibrium***by*Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace**275 Inherent instability in banking: the free banking experience***by*Arthur J. Rolnick & Warren E. Weber**274 Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience***by*Robert B. Litterman**268 National monetary policies in a world economy: a role for cooperation***by*Preston J. Miller & Neil Wallace**265 Suspension and the financing of the Civil War: a critique of Newcomb and Mitchell***by*Arthur J. Rolnick & Neil Wallace**204 Limited information, money, and competitive equilibrium***by*Bruce D. Smith

### 1984

**254 The costs of intermediate targeting***by*Robert B. Litterman**244 Optimal income tax in a monetary economy***by*Preston J. Miller

### 1983

**239 "Can the cycle be reconciled with a consistent theory of expectations?" - or a progress report on business cycle theory***by*Edward C. Prescott**222 After Penn Square: the insurance dilemma***by*Evelyn F. Carroll & Arthur J. Rolnick**218 Money, nonconvex preferences, and the existence of equilibrium: a note***by*Bruce D. Smith

### 1982

**216 Money as a medium of transaction in the overlapping generations model***by*Bruce D. Smith**213 A time series analysis of federal budget policy***by*Preston J. Miller**210 A monetarist approach to federal budget control***by*Preston J. Miller**205 Human capital investment, and the inefficiency of compensation based on marginal productivity: the static case***by*Bruce D. Smith

### 1981

**170 "Dollarization," seignorage, and the demand for money***by*Thomas J. Sargent**163 Rational expectations, hyperinflation, and the demand for money***by*Lawrence J. Christiano**158 The ends of four big inflations***by*Thomas J. Sargent**152 The case for branch banking in Montana***by*Stanley L. Graham & Arthur J. Rolnick**1 Stopping moderate inflations: the methods of PoincarĂ© and Thatcher***by*Thomas J. Sargent

### 1980

**165 The term structure of interest rates and the aliasing identification problem***by*Lawrence J. Christiano**135 Linear rational expectations models for dynamically interrelated variables***by*Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent

### 1979

**127 Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models***by*Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent**124 A test of the exogeneity of national variables in a regional econometric model***by*Paul A. Anderson**115 Techniques of forecasting using vector autoregressions***by*Robert B. Litterman

### 1978

**104 Forecasting with econometric methods: a comment***by*Preston J. Miller

### 1977

**85 The influence of regulation on competition in the United States banking industry***by*Stanley L. Graham & Arthur J. Rolnick**55 Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory***by*Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims**101 Is Keynesian economics a dead end?***by*Thomas J. Sargent

### 1976

**79 Econometric exogeneity and alternative estimators of portfolio balance schedules for hyperinflations: a note***by*Thomas J. Sargent**63 The policy procedure of the FOMC: a critique***by*John H. Kareken & Preston J. Miller**60 The demand for money during hyperinflations under rational expectations: II***by*Thomas J. Sargent**58 Seasonality and portfolio balance under rational expectations***by*Rusdu Saracoglu & Thomas J. Sargent**57 The transactions demand for money in a three-asset economy***by*Preston J. Miller**54 Testing for neutrality and rationality***by*Thomas J. Sargent**53 Observations on improper methods of simulating and teaching Friedman's time series consumption model***by*Thomas J. Sargent

### 1975

**83 A little bit of evidence on the natural rate hypothesis from the U.S***by*Salih Neftci & Thomas J. Sargent**49 Categories of criticism of the rational expectations theory***by*Preston J. Miller & Clarence W. Nelson & Thomas M. Supel**48 The observational equivalence of natural and unnatural rate theories of macroeconomics***by*Thomas J. Sargent**46 Nonreporting of savings accounts in sample savings: causes and correlates***by*E. Scott Maynes & Arthur J. Rolnick**45 Stabilization policy: a framework for analysis***by*Arthur J. Rolnick**23 Naive business cycle theory***by*Thomas J. Sargent

### 1974

**29 Rational expectations and the theory of economic policy***by*Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace**27 Dynamic analysis of a Keynesian model***by*Thomas J. Sargent**26 Unemployment and stabilization policy in a two-sector, two-country aggregative model***by*Dale W. Henderson & Thomas J. Sargent

### 1972

**76 The Thomson-Pierce monthly model: a test for structural change***by*John H. Kareken & Arthur J. Rolnick & Neil Wallace

### 1971

**75 Interest rates and prices in the long run: a study of the Gibson paradox***by*Thomas J. Sargent