# University of Bonn, Germany

# Discussion Paper Serie B

Postal: Bonn Graduate School of Economics, University of Bonn, Adenauerallee 24 - 26, 53113 Bonn, Germany

Fax: +49 228 73 6884

Web page: http://www.bgse.uni-bonn.de

Fax: +49 228 73 6884

Web page: http://www.bgse.uni-bonn.de

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**425 Ein Optionsbewertungsexperiment mit professionellen Tradern***by*Abbink, Klaus & Bettina Kuon**423 Fictitious Play in Coordination Games***by*Sela, Aner & Dorothea K. Herreiner**421 Features of Experimentally Observed Bounded Rationality***by*Selten, Reinhard**407 Stock Evolution under Stochastic Volatility: A Discrete Approach***by*Leisen, Dietmar P.J.**261 Predictive behavior: An experimental study***by*Brennscheidt,Gunnar**258 The partnered core of a game with side payments***by*Reny,Philip & Winter,Eyal & Wooders,Myrna**257 G-Inverses of matrix products***by*Werner,Hans-Joachim**256 Portfolio insurance and volatility On the robustness of the Black- Scholes Option Pricing Model***by*Frey,Ruediger Stremme,Alexander**255 Arbitrage,bubbles and valuation***by*Werner,Jan**254 Koordination der Makropolitik in Europa***by*Neumann,Manfred J.M.**253 A limit theorem for random matrices with a multiparameter and its application to a stochastic model of a large economy***by*Evstigneev,Igor Schuerger,Klaus**252 An axiomatic theory of a risk dominance measure for bipolar games with linear incentives***by*Selten,Reinhard**250 On the subsidization of firms in the process of transition from a planned to a market economy***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**249 Structural indifference in normal form games***by*Mailath,George & Samuelson,Larry & Swinkels,Jeroen**248 The travelling salesman problem for unbounded random points***by*Schuerger,Klaus**247 Variance optimal hedging in discrete time***by*Schweizer,Martin**246 A new characterization of the maringale property***by*Schweizer,Martin**244 Correlated equilibria as network equilibria***by*Mailath,G. & Samuelson,L. & Shaked,A.**243 Dynamic stability in the repeated prisoners dilemma***by*Schlag,Karl**242 Cheap talk and evolutionary dynamics***by*Schlag,Karl**241 Anwendungen eines Binomialmodells der Zinsstruktur auf Marktdaten***by*von Borries,Daniel & Sandmann,Klaus**237 Why the forward rate is a biased predictor of the future spot rate if investors are riskneutral***by*Schmidt,Roland**232 Evolution,automata and the repeated prisoners dilemma***by*Probst,Daniel**231 Extensions of G-based matrix ppartial orders***by*Werner,H.J. & Mitra,S.K. & Jain,S.K.**230 Characterizations of minimal semipositivity***by*Werner,Hans-Joachim**229 On the existence of equivalent submartingale measures***by*Schuerger,Klaus**228 An evolutionary analysis of backward and forward induction***by*Noeldecke,Georg & Samuelson,Larry**227 A limit theorem for random matrices with a multiparameter***by*Schuerger,Klaus**225 Performance of least squares learning in autoregressive models with forecast feedback- The stochastic case***by*Zenner,Marcus**224 Performance of least squares learning in autoregressive models with forecast feedback- The deterministic case***by*Zenner,Marcus**222 A problem of the transition from a planned to a market economy: Should firms be subsidized in order to avoid their bankrupcy?***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**221 Experiments on predictions***by*Brennscheidt,Gunnar**220 Learning to cooperate in experiments on multistage price setting duopolies with symmetric costs***by*Keser,Claudia**219 Demand commitment bargaining in three-person quota game experiments***by*Selten,Reinhard Kuon,Bettina**214 On the existence and characterization of arbitrage-free measures in contingent claim valuation***by*Christopeit,Norbert & Musiela,Marek**213 A theory on long-term changes of economic growth***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**211 Unverifiable information,Incomplete contracts and renegotiation***by*Noeldeke,Georg & Schmidt,Klaus**208 An axiomatic approach to consumer`s welfare***by*Selten,Reinhard Winter, Eyal**206 On the existence of arbitrage-free measures in contingent claim valuation***by*Christopeit,Norbert & Musiela,Marek**202 Probabilistic aspects of options***by*Foellmer,Hans**199 Duopoly signal jamming***by*Mirman,Leonard & Samuelson,Larry & Urbano,Amparo**197 International duopoly experiments and simulations***by*Keser,Claudia**196 On large games and competitive marketsII: Applications***by*Wooders,Myrna**195 On large ghames and competitive marketsI: Theory***by*Wooders,Myrna**194 Martingale densities for general asset prices***by*Schweizer,Martin**193 Evolutionary stability in repeated games Played by finite automata***by*Binmore,Ken Samuelson,Larry**192 Some comments on a simple nonlinear filter with application to adaptive control***by*Christopeit,Norbert**191 A demand commitment model of coalition bargaining***by*Selten,Reinhard**190 Almost subadditive extensions of Kingman`s ergodic theorem***by*Schuerger,Klaus**187 Delors and the core: Cooperative monetary policy games and the transition to EMU***by*Klein Martin**185 Efficiency in an equilibrium model with a continuous pricing function***by*Vaidievutis,Geralavicius**184 Is inflation risk associated with the rate of inflation? New evidence for cointegrated time series***by*Schmidt,Roland**183 Learning in a class of non-zero-sum two-person games, PartI***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**182 Learning in a class of non-zero-sum two-person games Part I***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**:181 Envy,greed and anticipation in ultimatum games with incomplete information: An experimental study***by*Mitzkewitz,Michael & Nagel,Rosemarie**179 The efficaciousness of small groups and the approximate core property in games without side payments: Some first results***by*Wooders,Myrna**178 Necessary and sufficient conditions for the approximate core property***by*Wooders,Myrna**177 Equilibrium with a finite number of pricing functions***by*Vaidievutis,Geralavicius**175 Estimating parameters of an extreme value distribution by the method of moments***by*Christopeit,Norbert**174 Order independent equilibrium payoffs***by*Moldovanu,Benny Winter,Eyal**173 Capital asset price dynamics: Heterogeneity and hysteresis***by*Klein,Martin**172 Some remarks on bounded rationality***by*Selten,Reinhard**171 Price indeterminacy and bargaining in a market with indivisibilities***by*Moldovanu,Benny**170 Some results of experimental duopoly markets with demand inertia***by*Keser,Claudia**169 ECU bond prices: Private markets and political constraints***by*Klein,Martin**168 Internationale Wirtschaftspolitik: Koordination,Kooperation oder Wettbewerb?***by*Neumann,Manfred M.J.**167 Mean variance hedging for general claims***by*Schweizer,Martin**166 Hedging of contingent claims under incomplete information***by*Foellmer,Hans & Schweizer,Martin**165 Ost-West Wirtschaftsentwicklung im naechsten Jahrzehnt***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**164 The negotiation agreement area Data supplement***by*Rockenbach,Bettina & Uhlich,Gerald**163 ECU-Finanztitel: Bewertung und hedge-Eigenschaften***by*Mueller,Sigrid**162 Graphical interpretation of price indices and the impact of rebasings on measured inflation***by*Schnidt,Roland**161 Inflation expectation if the target rate of the central bank is uncertain***by*Schmidt,Roland**160 A Monte-Carlo-study and first theoretical results***by*Kottmann,Thomas Kuliberda,Irene**159 Monetary policy coordination in the european monetary system***by*von Hagen,Juergen**158 Signalling and equilibrium selection***by*Mitzkewitz,Michael**157 The option pricing approach to the valuation of country risk***by*Klein,Martin**156 Monetary and fiscal policy in a European Monetary Union Some public choice consideration***by*von Hagen,Juergen & Fratianni,Michele**155 A note on the empirical effectiveness of formal fiscal restraints***by*von Hagen,Juergen**154 Sequential bargaining,cooperative games and coalition proofness***by*Moldovanu,Benny**153 Cointegration and the demand for money- An empirical evaluation for West Germany***by*Schmidt,Roland**152 Precommitment to stability by central bank independence***by*Neumann,Manfred J.M.**151 I nessentiality of large coalitions and the approximate core property: Two equivalence theorems***by*Wooders,Holtz Myrna**150 Currency substitution and the demand for money***by*von Hagen,Juergen Neumann,Manfred J.M.**149 An axiomatization of the core for finite and continuum games***by*Winter,Eyal & Wooders,Myrna**148 The unique rule in the Barro-Gordon Framework***by*Schmidt,Roland**146 General equilibrium with a continuum of oligopolies***by*Siebe,Wilfried**145 Changes in the degree of activity and the organizational efficiency of a society as a cause for long waves in GDP***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**144 A game equilibrium model of thin markets***by*Selten,Reinhard & Wooders,Myrna**143 Seignorage,base money regimes and central bank behavior***by*Klein,Martin**142 A limit theorem for random matrices with a multiparameter***by*Schuerger,Klaus**141 The relation between economic growth and structural change***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**136 Some comments on a simple nonlinear filter***by*Christopeit,Norbert**135 Some further results on matrix monotonicity***by*Werner,Hans-Joachim**134 Nonnegative group inverses***by*Neumann,Michael & Werner Hans-Joachim**133 Learning to become rational in simultaneous equations linear models with forecast feedback***by*Kottmann,Thomas**132 Evolution,learning and economic behaviour***by*Selten,Reinhard**131 Staggered entry and unemployment durations - An application to german data***by*Wurzel,Eckhard**130 Properties of a measure of predictive succes***by*Selten,Reinhard**129 A term structure model and the pricing of interest rate options***by*Sandmann,Klaus & Sondermann,Dieter**127 Almost subadditive extensions of Kingsman`s ergodic theorem***by*Schuerger,Klaus**126 The negotiation agreement area "An experimental analysis of two person characteristic function game"***by*Rockenbach,Bettina & Uhlich,Gerald**125 Bargaining equilibria for assignment games without side payments***by*Moldovanu,Benny**124 Seignorage: What is it and who gets it?***by*Klein,Martin & Neumann,Manfred**123 Monetary and fiscal seignorage: Theory and evidence***by*Klein,Martin**122 P-energy o and orthogonality of martingales***by*Schweizer,Martin**120 A new approach to rational expectations: Selections and Learning***by*Kottmann,Thomas**119 ECU interest rates and ECU basket adjustments: An arbitrage pricing approach***by*Klein,Martin & Mueller,Sigrid**116 Asymptotic properties of least squares estimators in re- gression model with forecast feedback***by*Mohr,Michael**115 More on generalization of the reverse order law***by*Werner,Hans-Joachim**114 The pricing of options with an uncertain interest rate: A discrete time approach***by*Sandmann,Klaus**113 Die raeumliche Wirtschaftsentwicklung im Weltmassstab Ost-West und Nord- Sued Vergleiche***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**112 Dynamische Markttheorie und Makrotheorie***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**111 Simultane Bestimmung der Wechselkurse der wichtigsten Wechselkurse***by*Krelle,Wilhelm & Welsch,Heinz**110 Lange Wellen der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung Tatsachen und Erklaerungen***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**109 Experimental Design for direct metering of residential elesticity end- uses***by*Aigner,Dennis & Schoenfeld,Peter**108 Simultaneous equations linear models with forecast feedback***by*Kottmann,Thomas**106 Duopoly strategies programmed by experienced players***by*Selten,Reinhard & Mitzkewitz,Michael & Uhlich,Gerald**105 An area theory for experimentaltwo-person characteristic function games***by*Uhlich,Gerald**104 Latent variables in econometric models***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**103 Loesung einer Klasse von Nichtkooperativen Nichtnull- summenspielen***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**102 Empirical tests of the overreaction hypothesis for the german stock market***by*Stock,Detlev**101 Theorie und Anwendung einfacher Spiele***by*Ostmannn,Axel**100 On stochastic "bang-bang" control for linear diffusions with point process observation***by*Christopeit,N. & Helmes,K.**99 On failure modeling***by*Heinricher,Arthur Helmes Kurt**98 Zur Bewertung von Caps und Floors***by*Sandmann,Klaus & Sondermann,Dieter**97 Uniqueness and stability of stationary rational expectations equilibria***by*Mohr,Michael**96 OLS-estimation and rationality in linear models with forecast feedback***by*Kottmann,Thomas**95 Almost subadditive multiparameter ergodic theorems***by*Schuerger,Klaus**94 An intertemporal interest rate market model: Complete markets***by*Sandmann,Klaus**93 Anticipatory learning in two-person games***by*Selten,Reinhard**92 Price discrimination and product line rivalry***by*Ginsburgh,Victor & MacLeod,Bentley & Weber,Shlomo**89 Some recent results in estimation under prior information***by*Werner,Hans-Joachim**88 CINTR- an interactive computer program for computing the intersection of two real matrices under the star order***by*Werner,Hans-Joachim**87 A closed form formula for the intersection of two complex matrices under the star ordering***by*Werner,Hans-Joachim**86 Endogenous price fluctuations***by*Wiesmeth,Hans**85 Limit theorems for random variables with a multiparameter***by*Schuerger,Klaus**83 Parameterschaetzung von Diffusionsprozessen***by*Weiss,E.A.,Jr.**82 Reinsurance in arbitrage-free markets***by*Sondermann,Dieter**81 Multiparameter almost superadditive limit theorems and their application to combinatorial optimization***by*Schuerger,Klaus**80 Structure of financial markets and real indeterminacy of equilibria***by*Werner,Jan**79 Complete markets***by*Wiesmeth,Hans**78 Advances in economics: Perspectives and conditions of progress***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**76 Jean Baptiste Say***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**75 Die Zukunft der Weltwirtschaft***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**74 The future of the world economy.Main results of the research project***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**73 Growth,decay and structural change***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**72 Operation research - Rueckblick und einige Gedanken der Weiterentwicklung***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**71 Von Thuenen-Vorlesung Verein fuer Sozialpolitik***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**66 A factor demand model with quasi fixed factors and rational expectations***by*Weissenberger,Edgar & Mueller-Brockhausen, Gerd & Welsch,Heinz**65 Exchange rate determination for independent countries***by*Krelle,Wilhelm & Welsch,H.**64 Economic growth and structural change in developing countries***by*Szekely,Istvan**63 Economic growth and structural change of OECD countries***by*Ross,Hermann**62 Zur Wegunabhaengigkeit von Divisia-Indizes***by*Ross,Hermann**61 An aggregate import demand model for long-term projections***by*Welsch,Heinz**60 Bonn-IIasa research project on economic growth and structural change***by*Dobrinsky,Rumen**59 Economic growth and structural change in the CMEA countries***by*Dobrinsky,Rumen**58 The macroeconomic models of the european CMEA countries***by*Dobrinsky,Rumen**57 A comparision of LISREL and PLS estimation***by*Koeroesi,Gabor**56 The predicted miss problem with unknown drift parameter***by*Christopeit,N.**55 A note on C.R. Rao`s wider definition BLUE in the general Gauss- Markov model***by*Schoenfeld,Peter & Werner,Hans-Joachim**54 Some recent results on Drazin-monotonicity of property-n matrices***by*Werner,Hans-Joachim**53 C.R. Rao`s IPM method: A geometric approach***by*Werner,Hans-Joachim**52 On weak r-monotonicity***by*Werner,Hans-Joachim**51 On Derriennic`s almost subadditive ergodic theorem***by*Schuerger,Klaus**50 Asset prices and real indeterminacy in equilibrium with financial markets***by*Werner,Jan**49 Option pricing with bounds on the underlying securities***by*Sondermann,Dieter**48 Currency options: Hedging and social value***by*Sondermann,Dieter**47 Habit persistence and the structure of international trade***by*Welsch,Heinz**46 Determination of exchange rates and capital flows for OECD countries***by*Krelle,W. & Welsch,H.**44 Ias-system Bonn Release 5 Users manuel***by*Kirchen,Alfons & Weihs,Claus & Wedi,Christoph**43 Constrained multidimensional scaling***by*Schoenfeld,Peter**42 Keynes and the long run after 50 years: We are still alive***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**41 Option pricing and optimal stopping Part I***by*Christopeit,N.**40 Asymptotic properties of least-squares estimators in seminar- tingale regression models***by*Christopeit,N.**39 Strong consistency of least squares estimators in the monotone regression model with stochastic regressors***by*Christopeit,N. & Tosstorff,G.**38 Time series of bilateral commodity flows for sixteen coun- tries and eight groups of countries***by*Gajda,J. Welsch,H.**37 Time series of bilateral commodity import shares for sixteen countries and eight groups of countries 1960-1982***by*Gajda,J. & Welsch,H.**35 Time series of bilateral commodity shares for sixteen countries and eight groups of countries***by*Gajda,J. & Welsch,H.**34 A model of exchange rates and foreign trade for nine OECD countries***by*Welsch,H.**33 A forecasting model of aggregate import demand for nine countries***by*Welsch,H.**32 Models for groups of developing in the IIASA-Bonn project on economic growth and structural change***by*Szekely,I.**31 Results of the central groups;OECD country models***by*Ross,H.**30 On the functioning of the central model***by*Ross,Hermann**29 Bonn-IIasa world model. The database for the USA***by*Ross,H.**28 Bonn-IIasa world model. A data base for nine OECD countries***by*Ross,H.**27 Model of exchange rates and foreign trade for CMRA counties***by*Gajda,J.**25 Aggregated macroeconomic models of the european CMEA countries***by*Dobrinsky,R.**24 Forecast of the West German economic development till 1999***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**23 The state of the Bonn-IIasa research project***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**22 Long term fluctuations of technical progress and growth***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**21 Technischer Fortschritt und Wachstum***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**20 Economic structural change and long term fluctuations in economic growth***by*Krelle,W. & Dobrinsky,R. & Gajda,J. & Ross,H. & Szekely,I. & Welsch,H.**19 The first approximation of the world model***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**18 Konflikt von Ethik und Oekonomie beim Umweltproblem***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**17 Heinrich Freiherr von Stackelberg***by*Krelle,Wilhem**16 Wechselkursbestimmung bei interdependenten Volkswirtschaften***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**15 Economic structural change. The Bonn IIASA research project,theoretical background and actual state***by*Krelle,W. & Dobrinsky,R. & Gajda,J. & Ross,H. & Szekely,I. & Welsch,H.**14 The world model in detail***by*Krelle,Wilhelm**13 Die Wirtschaftswissenschaften an der Universitaet Bonn, Geschichte des wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Bereichs der Rechts-und Staatswissenschaftlichen Fakultaet***by*Krelle,Wilhelm