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Citations for "Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations"

by Ehrbeck, Tilman & Waldmann, Robert

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  1. Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Disagreement and Biases in Inflation Expectations," CREATES Research Papers 2008-56, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  2. Sean D. Campbell & Steven A. Sharpe, 2007. "Anchoring bias in consensus forecasts and its effect on market prices," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-12, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2002. "Accuracy and rationality of Japanese institutional forecasters," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 203-213, April.
  4. Andreas Roider & Andrea Voskort, 2015. "Reputational Herding in Financial Markets: A Laboratory Experiment," CESifo Working Paper Series 5162, CESifo Group Munich.
  5. Christian Pierdzioch & Monique B. Reid & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Inflation Forecasts and Forecaster Herding: Evidence from South African Survey Data," Working Papers 21/2014, Stellenbosch University, Department of Economics.
  6. Stephan Danninger, 2005. "Revenue Forecasts As Performance Targets," IMF Working Papers 05/14, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Admati, Anat R. & Pfleiderer, Paul C., 2001. "Noisytalk.com: Broadcasting Opinions in a Noisy Environment," Research Papers 1670r, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
  8. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
  9. Wolfgang R. Köhler, 2004. "Optimal Incentive Contracts for Experts," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse6_2004, University of Bonn, Germany.
  10. Fujiwara, Ippei & Ichiue, Hibiki & Nakazono, Yoshiyuki & Shigemi, Yosuke, 2013. "Financial markets forecasts revisited: Are they rational, stubborn or jumpy?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(3), pages 526-530.
  11. Nakazono, Yoshiyuki, 2013. "Strategic behavior of Federal Open Market Committee board members: Evidence from members’ forecasts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 62-70.
  12. Wilbert van der Klaauw & Wandi Bruine de Bruin & Giorgio Topa & Basit Zafar & Olivier Armantier, 2012. "Inflation Expectations and Behavior: Do Survey Respondents Act on their Beliefs?," 2012 Meeting Papers 121, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  13. Michael P. Clements, 2014. "US Inflation Expectations and Heterogeneous Loss Functions, 1968–2010," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 1-14, 01.
  14. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
  15. Evan F. Koenig & Sheila Dolmas & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(3), pages 618-628, August.
  16. Klug, Adam & Landon-Lane, John S. & White, Eugene N., 2005. "How could everyone have been so wrong? Forecasting the Great Depression with the railroads," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 27-55, January.
  17. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Biases In Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality Or Asymmetric Loss?," CAMA Working Papers 2005-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  18. Grant, Alan P. & Thomas, Lloyd B., 2001. "Supply shocks and the rationality of inflation forecasts," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 515-532.
  19. Clements, Michael P., 2010. "Explanations of the inconsistencies in survey respondents' forecasts," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 536-549, May.
  20. Nazaria Solferino & Robert Waldmann, 2010. "Predicting the signs of forecast errors," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(5), pages 476-485.
  21. David H. Romer & Christina D. Romer, 2000. "Federal Reserve Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 429-457, June.
  22. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Tornell, Aaron, 2004. "Exchange rate puzzles and distorted beliefs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 303-333, December.
  23. Beshears, John & Milkman, Katherine L., 2011. "Do sell-side stock analysts exhibit escalation of commitment?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 304-317, March.
  24. Owen Lamont, 1995. "Macroeconomics Forecasts and Microeconomic Forecasters," NBER Working Papers 5284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Chetan, Dave, 2004. "Are Investment Expectations Rational?," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2004208e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
  26. Lloyd B. Thomas, 1999. "Survey Measures of Expected U.S. Inflation," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 125-144, Fall.
  27. Chen, Qi & Francis, Jennifer & Jiang, Wei, 2005. "Investor learning about analyst predictive ability," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 3-24, February.
  28. repec:ipg:wpaper:22 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Loffler, Gunter, 1998. "Biases in analyst forecasts: cognitive, strategic or second-best?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 261-275, June.
  30. Martha A. Starr, 2012. "Contributions of Economists to the Housing-Price Bubble," Journal of Economic Issues, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 46(1), pages 143-172, March.
  31. Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter Norman, 2006. "The strategy of professional forecasting," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 441-466, August.
  32. Stein, Jeremy C., 2003. "Agency, information and corporate investment," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 111-165 Elsevier.
  33. Chua, Chew Lian & Tsiaplias, Sarantis, 2011. "Predicting economic contractions and expansions with the aid of professional forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 438-451, April.
  34. Carlos Capistrán-Carmona, 2005. "Bias in Federal Reserve Inflation Forecasts: Is the Federal Reserve Irrational or Just Cautious?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 127, Society for Computational Economics.
  35. Fintzen, David & Stekler, H. O., 1999. "Why did forecasters fail to predict the 1990 recession?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 309-323, July.
  36. Hibiki Ichiue & Tomonori Yuyama, 2007. "Biases in Monetary Policy Expectations Extracted From Fed Funds Futures and Surveys," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 07-E-15, Bank of Japan.
  37. Ottaviani, Marco & Sorensen, Peter Norman, 2006. "Professional advice," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 120-142, January.
  38. Friesen, Geoffrey & Weller, Paul A., 2006. "Quantifying cognitive biases in analyst earnings forecasts," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 333-365, November.
  39. Peter Tillmann, 2011. "Reputation and Forecast Revisions: Evidence from the FOMC," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201128, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  40. Christian Pierdzioch & Georg Stadtmann, 2010. "Herdenverhalten von Wechselkursprognostikern?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(4), pages 436-453, August.
  41. Wenzel, Thomas, 1999. "Combination of biased forecasts: Bias correction or bias based weights?," Technical Reports 1999,50, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  42. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
  43. repec:amu:wpaper:2013-04 is not listed on IDEAS
  44. repec:ipg:wpaper:21 is not listed on IDEAS
  45. Ippei Fujiwara & Hibiki Ichiue & Yoshiyuki Nakazono & Yosuke Shigemi, 2012. "Financial markets forecasts revisited: are they rational, herding or bold?," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 106, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
  46. Sabourian, H. & Sibert, A.C., 2009. "Banker Compensation and Confirmation Bias," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0940, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  47. Schaefer, Matthew P. & Myers, Robert J., 1999. "Forecasting Accuracy, Rational Expectations And Market Efficiency In The Us Beef Cattle Industry," 1999 Annual meeting, August 8-11, Nashville, TN 21487, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
  48. Jonas Dovern & Nils Jannsen, 2015. "Systematic Errors in Growth Expectations over the Business Cycle," Kiel Working Papers 1989, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  49. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2006. "An analysis of a panel of Spanish GDP forecasts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(11), pages 1287-1292.
  50. Eric Ghysels & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "Forecasting professional forecasters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  51. Noriyuki Yanagawa, 2008. "Biased Motivation of Experts: Should They be Aggressive or Conservative?," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-585, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  52. Martin Wallmeier, 2005. "Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts for DAX100 Firms During the Stock Market Boom of the 1990s," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 131-151, August.
  53. Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
  54. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
  55. Issler, João Victor & Lima, Luiz Renato, 2009. "A panel data approach to economic forecasting: The bias-corrected average forecast," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 153-164, October.
  56. Tom Stark, 1997. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters in the Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 97-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  57. Nejat Anbarci & Eric Floehr & Jungmin Lee & Joon Jin Song, 2008. "Economic Bias of Weather Forecasting: A Spatial Modeling Approach," Economics Series 2008_12, Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance.
  58. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1996. "Federal Reserve Private Information and the Behavior of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 5692, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  59. Laux, Christian & Probst, Daniel A., 2004. "One signal, two opinions: strategic heterogeneity of analysts' forecasts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 45-66, September.
  60. Ashiya, Masahiro, 2003. "Testing the rationality of Japanese GDP forecasts: the sign of forecast revision matters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 263-269, February.
  61. Koske, Isabell & Stadtmann, Georg, 2009. "Exchange rate expectations: The role of person specific forward looking variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 105(3), pages 221-223, December.
  62. Bizer, Kilian & Meub, Lukas & Proeger, Till & Spiwoks, Markus, 2014. "Strategic coordination in forecasting: An experimental study," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 195, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  63. Carl Bonham & Richard Cohen & Shigeyuki Abe, 2006. "The Rationality and Heterogeneity of Survey Forecasts of the Yen-Dollar Exchange Rate: A Reexamination," Working Papers 200611, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  64. Roy Batchelor, 2007. "Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 39, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  65. da Silva Filho, Tito Nícias Teixeira, 2005. "Is there too much certainty when measuring uncertainty," MPRA Paper 16383, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  66. Deschamps, Bruno & Ioannidis, Christos, 2013. "Can rational stubbornness explain forecast biases?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 141-151.
  67. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2008. "Thought and Behavior Contagion in Capital Markets," MPRA Paper 9142, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  68. Jonas Dovern & Ulrich Fritsche, 2008. "Estimating fundamental cross-section dispersion from fixed event forecasts," Macroeconomics and Finance Series 200801, Hamburg University, Department Wirtschaft und Politik.
  69. Stephan Danninger & Annette Kyobe & M. Cangiano, 2005. "The Political Economy of Revenue-Forecasting Experience From Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 05/2, International Monetary Fund.
  70. Noriyuki Yanagawa, 2008. "Biased Motivation of Experts: Should They be Aggressive or Conservative?," CARF F-Series CARF-F-133, Center for Advanced Research in Finance, Faculty of Economics, The University of Tokyo.
  71. Ashiya, M., 2000. "Japanese GDP Forecasters Are Pressimistic in Boom, Optimistic in Recession, and Always Too Jumpy," ISER Discussion Paper 0513, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  72. García, Juan Angel & Manzanares, Andrés, 2007. "Reporting biases and survey results: evidence from European professional forecasters," Working Paper Series 0836, European Central Bank.
  73. repec:ipg:wpaper:23 is not listed on IDEAS
  74. Marco Ottaviani & Peter Norman Sorensen, 2002. "Professional Advice: The Theory of Reputational Cheap Talk," Discussion Papers 02-05, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  75. Richard H. Cohen & Carl Bonham, 2007. "Specifying the Forecast Generating Process for Exchange Rate Survey Forecasts," Working Papers 200718, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
  76. Batchelor, Roy, 2007. "Bias in macroeconomic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 189-203.
  77. Hirshleifer, David & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2001. "Herd Behavior and Cascading in Capital Markets: A Review and Synthesis," MPRA Paper 5186, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  78. Sarah M. Lein & Thomas Maag, 2008. "The Formation of Inflation Perceptions – Some Empirical Facts for European Countries," KOF Working papers 08-204, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  79. Lahiri, Kajal & Sheng, Xuguang, 2008. "Evolution of forecast disagreement in a Bayesian learning model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 325-340, June.
  80. Kajal Lahiri & Gultekin Isiklar, 2010. "Estimating International Transmission of Shocks Using GDP Forecasts: India and Its Trading Partners," Discussion Papers 10-06, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  81. Lawrence, Michael & O'Connor, Marcus, 2000. "Sales forecasting updates: how good are they in practice?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 369-382.
  82. David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1997. "Rational bias in macroeconomic forecasts," Staff Reports 21, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  83. Gregory, Allan W. & Yetman, James, 2004. "The evolution of consensus in macroeconomic forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 461-473.
  84. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
  85. Peter Tillmann, 2010. "Strategic Forecasting on the FOMC," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201017, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
  86. Clements, Michael P, 2006. "Internal consistency of survey respondents.forecasts : Evidence based on the Survey of Professional Forecasters," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 772, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  87. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Exchange Rate Puzzles and Distorted Beleifs (June 2003), with Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas," UCLA Economics Online Papers 265, UCLA Department of Economics.
  88. Jordi Pons-Novell, 2003. "Strategic bias, herding behaviour and economic forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 67-77.
  89. Zitzewitz, Eric, 2001. "Measuring Herding and Exaggeration by Equity Analysts and Other Opinion Sellers," Research Papers 1802, Stanford University, Graduate School of Business.
This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.