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Citations for "New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates"

by Kenneth A. Froot

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  1. Stillwagon, Josh R., 2015. "Testing the expectations hypothesis with survey forecasts: The impacts of consumer sentiment and the zero lower bound in an I(2) CVAR," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 85-101.
  2. Markiewicz, Agnieszka & Pick, Andreas, 2014. "Adaptive learning and survey data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 685-707.
  3. Taboga, Marco, 2007. "Structural change and the bond yield conundrum," MPRA Paper 4965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Moench, Emanuel, 2016. "The term structure of expectations and bond yields," Staff Reports 775, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, revised 01 Feb 2017.
  5. Hans Dewachter, 2008. "Imperfect information, macroeconomic dynamics and the yield curve : an encompassing macro-finance model," Working Paper Research 144, National Bank of Belgium.
  6. Christiansen, Charlotte, 2003. "Testing the expectations hypothesis using long-maturity forward rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 175-180, February.
  7. Soderlind, Paul & Svensson, Lars, 1997. "New techniques to extract market expectations from financial instruments," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 383-429, October.
  8. Dahlquist, Magnus & Jonsson, Gunnar, 1995. "The information in Swedish short-maturity forward rates," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(6), pages 1115-1131, June.
  9. Hsu, Chiente & Kugler, Peter, 1997. "The Revival of the Expectations Hypothesis of the US Term Structure of Interest Rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 115-120, August.
  10. Stephen R. Blough, 1994. "Yield curve forecasts of inflation: a cautionary tale," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue May, pages 3-16.
  11. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje, 2010. "Determinants of Weekly Yields on Government Securities in India," Working Papers id:2834, eSocialSciences.
  12. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
  13. Bacchetta, Philippe & Mertens, Elmar & van Wincoop, Eric, 2009. "Predictability in financial markets: What do survey expectations tell us?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 406-426, April.
  14. Bennett T. McCallum, 2005. "Monetary policy and the term structure of interest rates," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Fall, pages 1-21.
  15. Dick, Christian D. & Schmeling, Maik & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2013. "Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 58-80.
  16. Wahab, Mahmoud, 1997. "On risk, rationality and the predictive ability of European short-term adjusted yield spreads," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 737-765, September.
  17. Erdenebat Bataa & Dong H. Kim & Denise R. Osborn, 2006. "A Further Examination of the Expectations Hypothesis for the Term Structure," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0611, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  18. Timothy Cook & Thomas Hahn, 1990. "Interest rate expectations and the slope of the money market yield curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sep, pages 3-26.
  19. Dieter Nautz & Jürgen Wolters, 1999. "The response of long-term interest rates to news about monetary policy actions: Empirical evidence for the U.S. and Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 135(3), pages 397-412, September.
  20. D H Kim, 2003. "Another Look at Yield Spreads: The Role of Liquidity," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0306, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  21. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Wolff, Christian C.P., 2011. "Time-variation in term premia: International survey-based evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 605-622, June.
  22. Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L. & Valente, Giorgio, 2007. "The Empirical Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Bond Yields," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 42(01), pages 81-100, March.
  23. Paniagua, Jordi & Sapena, Juan, 2014. "Business performance and social media: Love or hate?," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 719-728.
  24. Carol L. Osler, 1989. "Interest Rate Term Premiums and the Failure of the Speculative Efficiency Hypothesis: A Theoretical Investigation," NBER Working Papers 3060, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2005. "What do you expect? Imperfect policy credibility and tests of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 421-447, March.
  26. Shiller, Robert J. & Huston McCulloch, J., 1990. "The term structure of interest rates," Handbook of Monetary Economics,in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 627-722 Elsevier.
  27. Thornton, Daniel L., 2006. "Tests of the Expectations Hypothesis: Resolving the Campbell-Shiller Paradox," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(2), pages 511-542, March.
  28. Ron Jongen & Willem F.C. Verschoor & Christian C.P. Wolff, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Rate Expectations: Survey And Synthesis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(1), pages 140-165, 02.
  29. Massimo Guidolin & Daniel L. Thornton, 2010. "Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis," Working Papers 2010-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  30. Söderlind, Paul & Söderström, Ulf & Vredin, Anders, 2003. "Taylor Rules and the Predictability of Interest Rates," Working Paper Series 147, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  31. Giuseppe Ferrero & Andrea Nobili, 2008. "Short-term interest rate futures as monetary policy forecasts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 681, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  32. Cavaglia, Stefano M. F. G. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 1996. "A note on the determinants of unexpected exchange rate movements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 179-188, January.
  33. Kim, Don H. & Orphanides, Athanasios, 2012. "Term Structure Estimation with Survey Data on Interest Rate Forecasts," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(01), pages 241-272, April.
  34. Ramchander, Sanjay & Simpson, Marc W. & Chaudhry, Mukesh K., 2005. "The influence of macroeconomic news on term and quality spreads," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 84-102, February.
  35. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C, 2005. "Time Variation in Term Premia: International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 4959, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. Ornelas, Jose Renato Haas & Silva Jr., Antonio Francisco de Almeida, 2015. "Testing the liquidity preference hypothesis using survey forecasts," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 173-185.
  37. Jorion, Philippe, 1996. "Does real interest parity hold at longer maturities?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1-2), pages 105-126, February.
  38. I Doun Kuo, 2017. "Irrationality and Term Structure Anomaly," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 4507033, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
  39. Taboga, Marco, 2009. "Macro-finance VARs and bond risk premia: A caveat," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 163-171, October.
  40. Takatoshi Ito & Tokuo Iwaisako, 1996. "Explaining Asset Bubbles in Japan," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 14(1), pages 143-193, July.
  41. Ederington, Louis H. & Huang, Chao-Hsi, 1995. "Parameter uncertainty and the rational expectations model of the term structure," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 207-223, May.
  42. Tobias Adrian & Daniel M. Covitz & J. Nellie Liang, 2013. "Financial stability monitoring," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-21, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  43. Della Corte, Pasquale & Sarno, Lucio & Thornton, Daniel L., 2008. "The expectation hypothesis of the term structure of very short-term rates: Statistical tests and economic value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 158-174, July.
  44. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-152, Summer.
  45. Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
  46. Johannes Fedderke & Neryvia Pillay, 2010. "A Rational Expectations Consistent Measure of Risk: Using Financial Market Data from a Middle Income Context," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(6), pages 769-793, December.
  47. Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 714-746.
  48. Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Kuo, I-Doun & Chiang, Thomas C., 2014. "What explains deviations in the unbiased expectations hypothesis? Market irrationality vs. the peso problem," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 172-190.
  49. Gollier, Christian, 2016. "Gamma discounters are short-termist," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 83-90.
  50. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Aaron Tornell, 1996. "Exchange Rate Dynamics and Learning," NBER Working Papers 5530, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  51. Thornton, Daniel L., 2005. "Tests of the expectations hypothesis: Resolving the anomalies when the short-term rate is the federal funds rate," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(10), pages 2541-2556, October.
  52. Martin D. Evans & Karen K. Lewis, 1992. "Trends in Expected Returns in Currency and Bond Markets," Working Papers 92-20, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  53. Christophe Belhomme, 1992. "Prime de risque et effet ARCH," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 43(1), pages 55-70.
  54. Bulkley, George & Giordani, Paolo, 2011. "Structural breaks, parameter uncertainty, and term structure puzzles," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 222-232, October.
  55. Matteo Modena, 2008. "The Term Structure and the Expectations Hypothesis: a Threshold Model," Working Papers 2008_36, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
  56. Seppala, Juha, 2004. "The term structure of real interest rates: theory and evidence from UK index-linked bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1509-1549, October.
  57. Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1995. "Federal Reserve interest rate targeting, rational expectations, and the term structure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 245-274, April.
  58. Anonymous, 1993. "Expectations and the term structure of interest rates," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 56, December.
  59. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Cara S. Lown, 1994. "An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 517-530.
  60. María O González & Frank Skinner & Samuel Agyei-Ampomah, 2013. "Term structure information and bond strategies," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(1), pages 53-74, July.
  61. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2008. "Bond positions, expectations, and the yield curve," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2008-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  62. Pami Dua & Nishita Raje & Satyananda Sahoo, 2004. "Interest Rate Modeling and Forecasting in India," Occasional papers 3, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  63. Nourzad, Farrokh & Scott Grennier, R., 1995. "Cointegration analysis of the expectations theory of the term structure," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 47(3), pages 281-292, August.
  64. Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Wood, Andrew, 2013. "The expectations hypothesis: New hope or illusory support?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1084-1092.
  65. Gourinchas, Pierre-Olivier & Tornell, Aaron, 2004. "Exchange rate puzzles and distorted beliefs," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 303-333, December.
  66. Seppälä, Juha, 2000. "The term structure of real interest rates : Theory and evidence form UK index-linked bonds," Research Discussion Papers 22/2000, Bank of Finland.
  67. Ranaldo, Angelo & Rupprecht, Matthias, 2016. "Explaining the Failure of the Expectations Hypothesis with Short-Term Rates," Working Papers on Finance 1619, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance, revised Jan 2017.
  68. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F C & Wolff, Christian C & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2008. "Dispersion of Beliefs in the Foreign Exchange Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6738, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  69. Ahrens, Ralf, 1999. "Improving market-based forecasts of short-term interest rates: Time-varying stationarity and the predictive content of switching regime-expectations," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/14, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  70. MacDonald, Ronald, 2000. " Expectations Formation and Risk in Three Financial Markets: Surveying What the Surveys Say," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(1), pages 69-100, February.
  71. Miah, Fazlul & Khalifa, Ahmed Ali & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2016. "Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations: A comprehensive study of developed and emerging economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 574-590.
  72. Sadayuki Ono, 2007. "Term Structure Dynamics in a Monetary Economy with Learning," Discussion Papers 07/29, Department of Economics, University of York.
  73. Francisco Jareno, 2008. "Spanish stock market sensitivity to real interest and inflation rates: an extension of the Stone two-factor model with factors of the Fama and French three-factor model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(24), pages 3159-3171.
  74. Longstaff, Francis A., 2000. "The term structure of very short-term rates: New evidence for the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(3), pages 397-415, December.
  75. Lamont, Owen A., 2002. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 265-280, July.
  76. Bruno Feunou & Jean-Sébastien Fontaine, 2014. "Bond Risk Premia and Gaussian Term Structure Models," Staff Working Papers 14-13, Bank of Canada.
  77. Chortareas, Georgios & Jitmaneeroj, Boonlert & Wood, Andrew, 2012. "Forecast rationality and monetary policy frameworks: Evidence from UK interest rate forecasts," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 209-231.
  78. Bulkley, George & Harris, Richard D.F. & Nawosah, Vivekanand, 2011. "Revisiting the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1202-1212, May.
  79. repec:wyi:journl:002109 is not listed on IDEAS
  80. D H Kim, 2002. "Another look at yield spreads: The role of liquidity," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 04, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
  81. Nicolas Rautureau, 2004. "Modèles à changement de régime et test de la théorie des anticipations rationnelles de la structure par terme des taux dintérêt en France," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 163(2), pages 117-129.
  82. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2010. "Anticipations, prime de risque et structure par terme des taux d'intérêt : une analyse des comportements d'experts," Recherches économiques de Louvain, De Boeck Université, vol. 76(2), pages 195-217.
  83. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid, 2017. "Exchange rate pass through, cost channel to monetary policy transmission, adaptive learning, and the price puzzle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 69-82.
  84. Baker, Malcolm & Greenwood, Robin & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2003. "The maturity of debt issues and predictable variation in bond returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 261-291, November.
  85. Johannes Fedderke & Neryvia Pillay, 2007. "A Theoretically Defensible Measure of Risk: Using Financial Market Data from a Middle Income Context," Working Papers 64, Economic Research Southern Africa.
  86. Christian Pierdzioch & Jan-Christoph Rülke, 2013. "A note on the anti-herding instinct of interest rate forecasters," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(2), pages 665-673, October.
  87. Grahame Johnson, 2003. "Measuring Interest Rate Expectations in Canada," Staff Working Papers 03-26, Bank of Canada.
  88. Gonzalez, Jorge & Spencer, Roger & Walz, Daniel, 1999. "The information in the Mexican term structure of interest rates: capital market implications," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 149-161, April.
  89. Ferrero, Giuseppe & Nobili, Andrea, 2008. "Futures contract rates as monetary policy forecasts," Working Paper Series 979, European Central Bank.
  90. Brunner, Allan D & Simon, David P, 1996. "Excess Returns and Risk at the Long End of the Treasury Market: An EGARCH-M Approach," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 443-457, Fall.
  91. Smant, David / D.J.C., 2010. "Direct tests of the expectations theory of the term structure: Survey expectations, the term premium and coefficient biases," MPRA Paper 19815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  92. M. Isabel Martínez-Serna & Eliseo Navarro-Arribas, 2002. "El modelo de McCallum. Evidencia empírica en la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés española," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(2), pages 323-357, May.
  93. Benjamin Tabak, 2009. "Testing the expectations hypothesis in the Brazilian term structure of interest rates: a cointegration analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(21), pages 2681-2689.
  94. Kugler, Peter, 1996. "The term structure of interest rates and regime shifts: Some empirical results," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 121-126, January.
  95. Juha Ilmari Seppala, 2000. "The Term Structure of Real Interest Rates: Theory and Evidence from the U.K. Index-Linked Bonds," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0245, Econometric Society.
  96. Eckwert, Bernhard, 1996. "Equilibrium term structure relations of risky assets in incomplete markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 327-346.
  97. Toni Gravelle & James Morley, 2005. "A Kalman filter approach to characterizing the Canadian term structure of interest rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(10), pages 691-705.
  98. Canova, Fabio & Marrinan, Jane, 1996. "Reconciling the term structure of interest rates with the consumption-based ICAP model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 709-750, April.
  99. Rajnish Mehra & Arunima Sinha, 2016. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates in India," NBER Working Papers 22020, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  100. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Exchange Rate Puzzles and Distorted Beleifs (June 2003), with Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas," UCLA Economics Online Papers 265, UCLA Department of Economics.
  101. Yvon Fauvel & Alain Paquet & Christian Zimmermann, 1999. "A Survey on Interest Rate Forecasting," Cahiers de recherche CREFE / CREFE Working Papers 87, CREFE, Université du Québec à Montréal.
  102. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? evidence from survey data," EconomiX Working Papers 2016-19, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Defense, EconomiX.
  103. Jareño, Francisco & Navarro, Eliseo, 2010. "Stock interest rate risk and inflation shocks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(2), pages 337-348, March.
  104. Eric Ghysels & Jonathan H. Wright, 2006. "Forecasting professional forecasters," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2006-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  105. Jon Faust & Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Efficient Prediction of Excess Returns," NBER Working Papers 14169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  106. Andreas Fischer, 1989. "Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates Using Weekly Money Announcements," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 125(I), pages 43-53, March.
  107. Iichiro Uesugi & Guy M. Yamashiro, 2003. "On the Relationship Between the Very Short Forward and the Spot Interest Rate," Discussion papers 03013, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  108. Timothy Cogley, 2005. "Changing Beliefs and the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Cross-Equation Restrictions with Drifting Parameters," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 420-451, April.
  109. Jonathan H. Wright, 2008. "Term premiums and inflation uncertainty: empirical evidence from an international panel dataset," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2008-25, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  110. Jongen, Ron & Verschoor, Willem F.C., 2008. "Further evidence on the rationality of interest rate expectations," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 438-448, December.
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