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Citations for "Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?"

by Kilian, Lutz & Taylor, Mark P.

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  1. I Paya & D Peel, 2005. "A new analysis of the determinants of the real dollar-sterling exchange rate: 1871-1994," Working Papers 565953, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  2. Stefan Reitz & Ulf Slopek, 2009. "Non-Linear Oil Price Dynamics: A Tale of Heterogeneous Speculators?," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 270-283, 08.
  3. Charles Engel & Kenneth D. West, 2003. "Exchange rates and fundamentals," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  4. repec:van:wpaper:1207 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Domenico Ferraro & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Barbara Rossi, 2012. "Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?," NBER Working Papers 17998, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2009. "Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 155-166, January.
  7. Giorgio Valente & Lucio Sarno, 2004. "Modeling and Forecasting Stock Returns: Exploiting the Futures Market, Regime Shifts and International Spillovers," Working Papers wp04-11, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  8. Ahmad, Yamin S., 2008. "The effects of small sample bias in Threshold Autoregressive models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 6-8, October.
  9. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "Forecasting and combining competing models of exchange rate determination," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3455-3480.
  10. Yang-Cheng Lu & Chang, Tsangyao & Chin-Ping Yu, 2011. "Long-Run Purchasing Power Parity with Asymmetric Adjustment: Evidence from Mainland China and Taiwan," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 59-70, September.
  11. Stefan Reitz & M.P Taylor, 2006. "The Coordination Channel of Foreign Exchange Intervention," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 16, Society for Computational Economics.
  12. Valentina Corradi & Norman R. Swanson, 2007. "Nonparametric Bootstrap Procedures For Predictive Inference Based On Recursive Estimation Schemes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 48(1), pages 67-109, 02.
  13. Garratt, Anthony & Lee, Kevin, 2010. "Investing under model uncertainty: Decision based evaluation of exchange rate forecasts in the US, UK and Japan," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 403-422, April.
  14. Nikolaou, Kleopatra, 2006. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: evidence from regression quantiles," Working Paper Series 0667, European Central Bank.
  15. Hui Jun Zhang & Jean-Marie Dufour & John Galbraith, 2013. "Exchange rates and commodity prices: measuring causality at multiple horizons," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-39, CIRANO.
  16. Frederic Bec & Melika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2004. "Tests for Unit-Root versus Threshold Specification With an Application to the Purchasing Power Parity Relationship," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 382-395, October.
  17. Reitz, Stefan & Westerhoff, Frank, 2003. "Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  18. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R., 2008. "Investor sentiment in the US-dollar: Longer-term, non-linear orientation on PPP," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 455-467, June.
  19. Marmer, Vadim, 2008. "Nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and spurious forecasts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 1-27, January.
  20. Daniel Buncic, 2012. "Understanding forecast failure of ESTAR models of real exchange rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 399-426, August.
  21. Yin-Wong Cheung & Antonio Garcia Pascual & Menzie David Chinn, 2004. "Empirical Exchange Rate Models of the Nineties; Are Any Fit to Survive?," IMF Working Papers 04/73, International Monetary Fund.
  22. Sarno, Lucio & Daniel l Thornton & Giorgio Valente, 2003. "Federal Funds Rate Prediction," Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003 183, Royal Economic Society.
  23. Kaltenbrunner, Annina & Nissanke, Machiko, 2009. "The Case for an Intermediate Exchange Rate Regime with Endogenizing Market Structures and Capital Mobility," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  24. Jean Imbs & Haroon Mumtaz & Morten O. Ravn & Helene Rey, 2003. "PPP Strikes Back: Aggregation and the Real Exchange Rate," IEHAS Discussion Papers 0307, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
  25. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2001. "Evaluating long-horizon forecasts," Research Working Paper RWP 01-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  26. Mende, Alexander & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2006. "Profits and Speculation in Intra-Day Foreign Exchange Trading," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-339, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  27. Choi, Chi-Young & Matsubara, Kiyoshi, 2007. "Heterogeneity in the persistence of relative prices: What do the Japanese cities tell us?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 260-286, June.
  28. Clements, Kenneth & Lan, Yihui & Roberts, John, 2008. "Exchange-rate economics for the resources sector," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 102-117, June.
  29. Hyeongwoo Kim & Deockhyun Ryu, 2014. "A Nonparametric Study of Real Exchange Rate Persistence over a Century," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-15, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
  30. Mark, Nelson C. & Moh, Young-Kyu, 2007. "Official interventions and the forward premium anomaly," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 499-522, September.
  31. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2012. "Purchasing Power Parity between the UK and the Euro Area," Working Papers 1208, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
  32. He, Huizhen & Chou, Ming Che & Chang, Tsangyao, 2014. "Purchasing power parity for 15 Latin American countries: Panel SURKSS test with a Fourier function," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 37-43.
  33. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2005. "Heterogeneity of agents, transactions costs and the exchange rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 691-719, April.
  34. Kim, Bong-Han & Min, Hong-Ghi & Moh, Young-Kyu, 2010. "Nonlinear dynamics in exchange rate deviations from the monetary fundamentals: An empirical study," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1167-1177, September.
  35. E Pavlidis & I Paya & D Peel, 2009. "Real Exchange Rates and Time-Varying Trade Costs," Working Papers 600537, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  36. Snaith, Stuart & Coakley, Jerry & Kellard, Neil, 2013. "Does the forward premium puzzle disappear over the horizon?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(9), pages 3681-3693.
  37. Gilli, M. & Winker, P., 2003. "A global optimization heuristic for estimating agent based models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 299-312, March.
  38. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2007. "Model-free evaluation of directional predictability in foreign exchange markets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 855-889.
  39. Emmanuel Davradakis, 2005. "Macroeconomic fundamentals and exchange rates: a non-parametric cointegration analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(7), pages 439-446.
  40. Junttila, Juha & Korhonen, Marko, 2011. "Nonlinearity and time-variation in the monetary model of exchange rates," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 288-302, June.
  41. Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Exchange Rate Predictability," Working Papers 690, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  42. PREMINGER, Arie & FRANCK, Raphael, 2005. "Forecasting exchange rates: a robust regression approach," CORE Discussion Papers 2005025, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  43. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
  44. Dimitris K. Christopoulos & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2004. "Current Account Sustainability in the US: What Do We Really Know About It?," Studies in Economics 0412, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  45. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2003. "The predictive content of the output gap for inflation : resolving in-sample and out-of-sample evidence," Research Working Paper RWP 03-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  46. Kathryn Dominguez & Freyan Panthaki, 2005. "What Defines "News" in Foreign Exchange Markets?," NBER Working Papers 11769, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. H. Levent Korap & Ozgur Aslan, 2010. "Re-examination of the long-run purchasing power parity: further evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(27), pages 3559-3564.
  48. Nelson C. Mark & Young-Kyu Moh, 2005. "The real exchange rate and real interest differentials: the role of nonlinearities," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 323-335.
  49. Josh Stillwagon, 2013. "Currency Risk and Imperfect Knowledge: Volatility and Long Swings around Benchmark Values," Working Papers 1315, Trinity College, Department of Economics.
  50. repec:rwi:repape:0134 is not listed on IDEAS
  51. Todd E. Clark & Kenneth D. West, 2005. "Using Out-of-Sample Mean Squared Prediction Errors to Test the Martingale Difference," NBER Technical Working Papers 0305, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  52. Luciana Juvenal & Mark P. Taylor, 2008. "Threshold adjustment in deviations from the law of one price," Working Papers 2008-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  53. JamesR. Lothian & MarkP. Taylor, 2008. "Real Exchange Rates Over the Past Two Centuries: How Important is the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson Effect?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(532), pages 1742-1763, October.
  54. Aviral Tiwari & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2014. "Revisiting Purchasing Power Parity for India using threshold cointegration and nonlinear unit root test," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 47(2), pages 117-133, May.
  55. Schepp, Zoltán, 2003. "Befektetői horizont és a „forwardrejtély”
    [The investor horizon and the ‘forward puzzle’]
    ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 939-963.
  56. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Palomba, Giulio, 2009. "Nonlinear adjustment in US bond yields: An empirical model with conditional heteroskedasticity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 659-667, May.
  57. John W. Galbraith & Greg Tkacz, 2007. "How Far Can Forecasting Models Forecast? Forecast Content Horizons for Some Important Macroeconomic Variables," Working Papers 07-1, Bank of Canada.
  58. Bofinger, Peter & Leitner, Johannes & Schmidt, Robert, 2004. "Biases of Professional Exchange Rate Forecasts: Psychological Explanations and an Experimentally-Based Comparison to Novices," CEPR Discussion Papers 4230, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  59. Mototsugu Shintani & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara & Tomoyoshi Yabu, 2009. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation: A Nonlinear Time Series Analysis," Vanderbilt University Department of Economics Working Papers 0920, Vanderbilt University Department of Economics.
  60. Carlo Altavilla & Paul De Grauwe, 2010. "Non-linearities in the relation between the exchange rate and its fundamentals," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 1-21.
  61. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Kocięcki, Andrzej & Rubaszek, Michał, 2015. "Bayesian forecasting of real exchange rates with a Dornbusch prior," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 53-60.
  62. Fredj Jawadi, 2009. "Essay in dividend modelling and forecasting: does nonlinearity help?," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(16), pages 1329-1343.
  63. Ahmad, Yamin & Lo, Ming Chien & Mykhaylova, Olena, 2013. "Volatility and persistence of simulated DSGE real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 38-41.
  64. Kenneth Rogoff, 2009. "Exchange rates in the modern floating era: what do we really know?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 145(1), pages 1-12, April.
  65. Richard T. Baillie & Rehim Kilic, 2005. "Do Asymmetric and Nonlinear Adjustments Explain the Forward Premium Anomaly?," Working Papers 543, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  66. Li, Wei-Xuan & Chen, Clara Chia-Sheng & French, Joseph J., 2015. "Toward an early warning system of financial crises: What can index futures and options tell us?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 87-99.
  67. Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Valente, Giorgio, 2002. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers 3281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  68. Stelios Bekiros, 2011. "Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Co-Movement, Long-Run Relationships and Short-run Dynamics," Economics Working Papers ECO2011/21, European University Institute.
  69. Robinson Kruse & Michael Frömmel & Lukas Menkhoff & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2012. "What do we know about real exchange rate nonlinearities?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 457-474, October.
  70. Juselius , Mikael & Kim, Moshe & Ringbom, Staffan, 2009. "Do markup dynamics reflect fundamentals or changes in conduct?," Research Discussion Papers 12/2009, Bank of Finland.
  71. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "The exchange rate and macroeconomic determinants: Time-varying transitional dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 197-220, August.
  72. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2007. "Purchasing Power Parity In Central And Eastern European Countries: An Analysis Of Unit Roots And Nonlinearities," Working Papers. Serie AD 2007-22, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  73. Ahmad Baharumshah & Venus Liew, 2006. "Forecasting Performance of Exponential Smooth Transition Autoregressive Exchange Rate Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 235-251, April.
  74. Manzan, S. & Westerhoff, F., 2002. "Heterogeneous Expectations, Exchange Rate Dynamics and Predictability," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-14, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  75. Qi, Min & Wu, Yangru, 2003. "Nonlinear prediction of exchange rates with monetary fundamentals," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 623-640, December.
  76. Camarero, Mariam & Ordóñez, Javier, 2012. "Nonlinear adjustment in the real dollar–euro exchange rate: The role of the productivity differential as a fundamental," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 444-449.
  77. Beckmann, Joscha, 2013. "Nonlinear adjustment, purchasing power parity and the role of nominal exchange rates and prices," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 176-190.
  78. Bakshi, Gurdip & Panayotov, George, 2013. "Predictability of currency carry trades and asset pricing implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(1), pages 139-163.
  79. Park, Cheolbeom & Park, Sookyung, 2013. "Exchange rate predictability and a monetary model with time-varying cointegration coefficients," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 394-410.
  80. Stefan Reitz & Georg Stadtmann, 2005. "Consensus among FX forecasters?," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 223-227, July.
  81. Timo Teräsvirta & Dick van Dijk & Marcelo Cunha Medeiros, 2004. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A reexamination," Textos para discussão 485, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
  82. Ivan Paya & David Peel, 2005. "The process followed by PPP data. On the properties of linearity tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2515-2522.
  83. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2010. "Forecast comparisons in unstable environments," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(4), pages 595-620.
  84. Hood, Harrison B. & Dorfman, Jeffrey H., 2014. "Testing Timber Market Linkages with a STAR Model with Housing Start-Controlled Transitions," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169055, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  85. Bauer, Christian & De Grauwe, Paul & Reitz, Stefan, 2007. "Exchange rate dynamics in a target zone: a heterogeneous expectations approach," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,11, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  86. Paul De Grauwe & Isabel Vansteenkiste, 2007. "Exchange rates and fundamentals: a non-linear relationship?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(1), pages 37-54.
  87. Clark, Todd E. & West, Kenneth D., 2006. "Using out-of-sample mean squared prediction errors to test the martingale difference hypothesis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 155-186.
  88. Zsolt DARVAS & Zoltán SCHEPP, . "Forecasting Exchange Rates of Major Currencies with Long Maturity Forward Rates," EcoMod2008 23800026, EcoMod.
  89. Ronald MacDonald & Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2009. "Exchange Rate Forecasters' Performance: Evidence of Skill?," CESifo Working Paper Series 2615, CESifo Group Munich.
  90. López-Suárez, Carlos Felipe & Rodríguez-López, José Antonio, 2011. "Nonlinear exchange rate predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 877-895, September.
  91. Rebecca L Driver & Peter F Westaway, 2005. "Concepts of equilibrium exchange rates," Bank of England working papers 248, Bank of England.
  92. Lucchetti, Riccardo & Palomba, Giulio, 2008. "Nonlinear Adjustment in US Bond Yields: an Empirical Analysis with Conditional Heteroskedasticity," MPRA Paper 11571, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  93. Corrado, L. & Marcus Miller & Lei Zhang, 2002. "Exchange Rate Monitoring Bands: Theory and Policy," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0209, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  94. Wagner Piazza Gaglianone & Jaqueline Terra Moura Marins, 2014. "Risk Assessment of the Brazilian FX Rate," Working Papers Series 344, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  95. Aidil Rizal SHAHRIN, 2015. "Has Nonlinearity Resolved The A Nomaly Of Unit Root Behaviour In Forward Discount ? New Empirical Evidence," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 70-80, March.
  96. Liew, Venus Khim-Sen & Lee, Hock-Ann & Lim, Kian-Ping, 2005. "Purchasing power parity in Asian economies: further evidence from rank tests for cointegration," MPRA Paper 15530, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  97. Cees Diks & Roy van der Weide, 2003. "Herding, A-synchronous Updating and Heterogeneity in Memory in a CBS," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-103/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  98. Jesper Rangvid & Maik Schmeling & Andreas Schrimpf, 2010. "Dividend predictability around the world," CREATES Research Papers 2010-03, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  99. Roman Hotvath, 2005. "Real Equilibrium Exchange Rate Estimates: To What Extent Applicable for Setting the Central Parity?," International Finance 0509006, EconWPA.
  100. Roche, M.J. & Moore. M.J., 2002. "Volatile and persistent real exchange rates without the contrivance of sticky prices," Economics, Finance and Accounting Department Working Paper Series n1160402, Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
  101. Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2005. "The Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals in a Complex World," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 549-575, 08.
  102. Paul Hubert, 2010. "Monetary Policy, Imperfect Information and the Expectations Channel," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1u, Sciences Po.
  103. Nelson C. Mark & Donggyu Sul, 2004. "The Use of Predictive Regressions at Alternative Horizons in Finance and Economics," Finance 0409032, EconWPA.
  104. mamatzakis, e & Christodoulakis, G, 2013. "Behavioural Asymmetries in the G7 Foreign Exchange Market," MPRA Paper 51615, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  105. Joseph V. Balagtas & Matthew T. Holt, 2009. "The Commodity Terms of Trade, Unit Roots, and Nonlinear Alternatives: A Smooth Transition Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(1), pages 87-105.
  106. Tsangyao Chang & Hsu-Ling Chang & Hsiao-Ping Chu & Chi-Wei Su, 2006. "Does PPP hold in African countries? Further evidence based on a highly dynamic non-linear (logistic) unit root test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(20), pages 2453-2459.
  107. Al-Khazali, Osamah M. & Pyun, Chong Soo & Kim, Daewon, 2012. "Are exchange rate movements predictable in Asia-Pacific markets? Evidence of random walk and martingale difference processes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 221-231.
  108. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefania Mourelle, 2011. "Nonlinearities in real exchange rate determination: do African exchange rates follow a random walk?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(2), pages 243-258.
  109. Chua, Choong Tze & Lai, Sandy & Wu, Yangru, 2008. "Effective fair pricing of international mutual funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(11), pages 2307-2324, November.
  110. Yamin Ahmad & Stuart Glosser, 2007. "Searching for Nonlinearities in Real Exchange Rates?," Working Papers 09-01, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics, revised Jan 2009.
  111. Yoon, Gawon, 2010. "Do real exchange rates really follow threshold autoregressive or exponential smooth transition autoregressive models?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 605-612, March.
  112. Tsangyao Chang & Wen-Chi Liu, 2010. "Long-run purchasing power parity with asymmetric adjustment: evidence from nine major oil-exporting countries," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(3), pages 263-274.
  113. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2009. "Nested forecast model comparisons: a new approach to testing equal accuracy," Working Papers 2009-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  114. Jon Faust & John H. Rogers & Jonathan H. Wright, 2001. "Exchange rate forecasting: the errors we've really made," International Finance Discussion Papers 714, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  115. Chien-Chung Nieh & Yu-Shan Wang, 2005. "ARDL Approach to the Exchange Rate Overshooting in Taiwan," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 55-71, August.
  116. Frédérique Bec & Anders Rahbek & Neil Shephard, 2008. "The ACR model: a multivariate dynamic mixture autoregression," THEMA Working Papers 2008-11, THEMA (THéorie Economique, Modélisation et Applications), Université de Cergy-Pontoise.
  117. Yamin Ahmad & Ming Chien Lo & Olena Mykhaylova, 2012. "Causes of Nonlinearities in low order models of the real exchange rate," Working Papers 12-01, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2013.
  118. Yamin Ahmad & William Craighead, 2010. "Temporal Aggregation and Purchasing Power Parity Persistence," Working Papers 10-01, UW-Whitewater, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2011.
  119. Terasvirta, Timo, 2006. "Forecasting economic variables with nonlinear models," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  120. Jaehun Chung & Yongmiao Hong, 2013. "Model-Free Evaluation of Directional Predictability in Foreign Exchange," Papers 2013-10-14, Working Paper.
  121. Jian Wang & Jason J. Wu, 2009. "The Taylor rule and forecast intervals for exchange rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 963, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  122. Nikolaou, Kleopatra, 2008. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 664-679, May.
  123. Ferrara, Laurent & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Mogliani, Matteo, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting during the Great Recession: The return of non-linearity?," CEPR Discussion Papers 9313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  124. repec:rwi:repape:0431 is not listed on IDEAS
  125. Menkhoff, Lukas & Taylor, Mark P., 2006. "The Obstinate Passion of Foreign Exchange Professionals : Technical Analysis," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 769, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  126. Dimitris, Christopoulos & Miguel, Leon-Ledesma, 2009. "Smooth Breaks and Nonlinear Mean Reversion: Post-Bretton Woods Real Exchange Rates," MPRA Paper 22553, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  127. Frédérique Bec & Mélika Bensalem & Marine Carrasco, 2010. "Detecting Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates from a Multiple Regime STAR Model," Post-Print hal-00685810, HAL.
  128. Chang, Tsangyao & Lee, Chia-Hao & Liu, Wen-Chi, 2012. "Nonlinear adjustment to purchasing power parity for ASEAN countries," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 325-331.
  129. Dangl, Thomas & Halling, Michael, 2012. "Predictive regressions with time-varying coefficients," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 157-181.
  130. Xiong, Tao & Bao, Yukun & Hu, Zhongyi, 2013. "Beyond one-step-ahead forecasting: Evaluation of alternative multi-step-ahead forecasting models for crude oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 405-415.
  131. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Chinn, Menzie & Garcia Pascual, Antonio, 2003. "What Do We Know about Recent Exchange Rate Models? In-Sample Fit and Out-of-Sample Performance Evaluated," Santa Cruz Center for International Economics, Working Paper Series qt0jc800x9, Center for International Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  132. Sekioua, Sofiane H., 2006. "Nonlinear adjustment in the forward premium: evidence from a threshold unit root test," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 164-183.
  133. David Ubilava, 2012. "El Niño, La Niña, and world coffee price dynamics," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 43(1), pages 17-26, 01.
  134. Alan M. Taylor & Mark Taylor, 2004. "The Purchasing Power Parity Debate," Working Papers 46, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
  135. Slim Chaouachi & Zied Ftiti & Frederic Teulon, 2014. "Explaining the Tunisian Real Exchange: Long Memory versus Structural Breaks," Working Papers 2014-147, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  136. Andreas S. Andreou & George A. Zombanakis, 2006. "Computational Intelligence in Exchange-Rate Forecasting," Working Papers 49, Bank of Greece.
  137. Carlo Altavilla, 2006. "The (Un-) Stable Relationship between The Exchange rate and its Fundamentals," Discussion Papers 6_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  138. Bussière, Matthieu & Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2010. "Methodological advances in the assessment of equilibrium exchange rates," Working Paper Series 1151, European Central Bank.
  139. Giannone, Domenico & Lenza, Michele & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2012. "Money, credit, monetary policy and the business cycle in the euro area," CEPR Discussion Papers 8944, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  140. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2005. "The power of tests of predictive ability in the presence of structural breaks," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 124(1), pages 1-31, January.
  141. Menkhoff, Lukas & Rebitzky, Rafael R. & Schröder, Michael, 2009. "Heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations: Evidence on the chartist-fundamentalist approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 241-252, May.
  142. Kleopatra Nikolaou, 2007. "The behaviour of the real exchange rate: Evidence from regression quantiles," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 46, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  143. Timo WOLLMERSHAEUSER, . "Should Central Banks React to Exchange Rate Movements? An Analysis of the Robustness of Simple Policy Rules under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," EcoMod2004 330600161, EcoMod.
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  212. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a Homogeneous Causality Pattern between Oil Prices and Currencies of Oil Importers and Exporters?," Ruhr Economic Papers 431, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (RWI), Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
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