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Citations for "A More Robust Definition of Subjective Probability"

by Mark J. Machina & David Schmeidler

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  1. Quiggin, John, 2005. "The Precautionary Principle in Environmental Policy and the Theory of Choice under Uncertainty," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 149847, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
  2. Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2006. "Recursive Smooth Ambiguity Preferences," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 17, Collegio Carlo Alberto, revised 2008.
  3. Chambers, Christopher & Takashi Hayashi, 2003. "Preference Aggregation under Uncertainty: Savage vs. Pareto," Working Papers 1184, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
  4. Cerreia-Vioglio, Simone & Maccheroni, Fabio & Marinacci, Massimo & Montrucchio, Luigi, 2012. "Probabilistic sophistication, second order stochastic dominance and uncertainty aversion," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(5), pages 271-283.
  5. Karni, Edi, 2008. "Unknowable states and choice-based definitions of subjective probabilities," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 99(3), pages 534-536, June.
  6. Simon Grant & Hatice Ozsoy & Ben Polak, 2007. "Probabilistic Sophistication and Stochastic Monotonicity in the Savage Framework," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1621, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  7. Massimo Marinacci, 2001. "Probabilistic sophistication and multiple priors," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 08-2001, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  8. Peter Klibanoff & Massimo Marinacci & Sujoy Mukerji, 2011. "Definitions of ambiguous events and the smooth ambiguity model," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 399-424, October.
  9. Siniscalchi, Marciano, 2006. "A behavioral characterization of plausible priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 91-135, May.
  10. Thomas Jungbauer & Klaus Ritzberger, 2011. "Strategic games beyond expected utility," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 377-398, October.
  11. Itzhak Gilboa, 2010. "Questions in Decision Theory," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 2(1), pages 1-19, 09.
  12. Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew Postlewaite & David Schmeidler, 2004. "Rationality of Belief Or: Why Savage's axioms are neither necessary nor sufficient for rationality, Second Version," PIER Working Paper Archive 08-043, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania, revised 03 Dec 2008.
  13. Grant, S. & Quiggin, J., 2001. "A Model-Free Definition of Increasing Uncertainty," Discussion Paper 2001-84, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  14. Epstein, Larry G., 2000. "Are Probabilities Used in Markets ?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 91(1), pages 86-90, March.
  15. Haluk Ergin & Faruk Gul, 2003. "A Subjective Theory of Compound Lotteries," Levine's Bibliography 506439000000000406, UCLA Department of Economics.
  16. Fujii, Tomoki, 2014. "Dynamic Poverty Decomposition Analysis: An Application to the Philippines," ADBI Working Papers 466, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  17. Tomasz, Strzalecki, 2011. "Probabilistic sophistication and variational preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(5), pages 2117-2125, September.
  18. Adam Dominiak & Wendelin Schnedler, 2011. "Attitudes toward uncertainty and randomization: an experimental study," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 289-312, October.
  19. Harrison, Glenn W. & Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Swarthout, J. Todd, 2014. "Eliciting subjective probabilities with binary lotteries," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 128-140.
  20. Cerreia-Vioglio, S. & Maccheroni, F. & Marinacci, M. & Montrucchio, L., 2011. "Uncertainty averse preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(4), pages 1275-1330, July.
  21. Larry G. Epstein & Kyoungwon Seo, 2013. "De Finetti Meets Ellsberg," CIRANO Working Papers 2013s-35, CIRANO.
  22. Li Hao & Daniel Houser, 2012. "Belief elicitation in the presence of naïve respondents: An experimental study," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 161-180, April.
  23. Massimo Marinacci & Paolo Ghirardato, 2001. "Risk, ambiguity, and the separation of utility and beliefs," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 21-2001, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
  24. Grant, Simon & Kajii, Atsushi & Polak, Ben, 2000. "Decomposable Choice under Uncertainty," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 169-197, June.
  25. Ivanov, Asen, 2011. "Attitudes to ambiguity in one-shot normal-form games: An experimental study," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 366-394, March.
  26. Vincent Feltkamp & Yoram Halevy, 1999. "- A Bayesian Approach To Uncertainty Aversion," Working Papers. Serie AD 1999-14, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  27. Lefort, Jean-Philippe & Dominiak, Adam & Dürsch, Peter, 2012. "A Dynamic Ellsberg Urn Experiment," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7357, Paris Dauphine University.
  28. Mongin, Philippe, 2013. "La théorie de la décision et la psychologie du sens commun," Les Cahiers de Recherche 943, HEC Paris.
  29. Enrico G. De Giorgi & David B. Brown & Melvyn Sim, 2010. "Dual representation of choice and aspirational preferences," University of St. Gallen Department of Economics working paper series 2010 2010-07, Department of Economics, University of St. Gallen.
  30. Ghirardato, Paolo & Marinacci, Massimo, 2002. "Ambiguity Made Precise: A Comparative Foundation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 102(2), pages 251-289, February.
  31. Nobuo Koida, 2012. "Nest-monotonic two-stage acts and exponential probability capacities," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 50(1), pages 99-124, May.
  32. Xiao Luo & Yi-Chun Chen, 2004. "A Unified Approach to Information, Knowledge, and Stability," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 472, Econometric Society.
  33. Dominiak, Adam & Lefort, Jean-Philippe, 2009. "Unambiguous Events and Dynamic Choquet Preferences," Working Papers 0489, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
  34. Simone Cerroni & Sandra Notaro & W. Douglass Shaw, 2011. "Do Monetary Incentives and Chained Questions Affect the Validity of Risk Estimates Elicited via the Exchangeability Method? An Experimental Investigation," Department of Economics Working Papers 1110, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
  35. Lo, Kin Chung, 2006. "Agreement and stochastic independence of belief functions," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 1-22, January.
  36. Grant, Simon & Quiggin, John, 2005. "Increasing uncertainty: a definition," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 117-141, March.
  37. Élise PAYZAN LE NESTOUR, 2010. "Bayesian Learning in UnstableSettings: Experimental Evidence Based on the Bandit Problem," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 10-28, Swiss Finance Institute.
  38. Yi-Chun Chen & Xiao Luo, 2012. "An indistinguishability result on rationalizability under general preferences," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 1-12, September.
  39. Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Aldo Rustichini, 2006. "Ambiguity Aversion, Robustness, and the Variational Representation of Preferences," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1447-1498, November.
  40. Tapking, Jens, 2004. "Axioms for preferences revealing subjective uncertainty and uncertainty aversion," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(7), pages 771-797, November.
  41. Grant, Simon & Kajii, Atsushi, 2007. "The epsilon-Gini-contamination multiple priors model admits a linear-mean-standard-deviation utility representation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 39-47, April.
  42. Christopher J.Tyson, 2005. "Axiomatic Foundations for Satisficing Behavior," Economics Papers 2005-W03, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  43. Jürgen Eichberger & David Kelsey, 2007. "Ambiguity," Working Papers 0448, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Jul 2007.
  44. Gumen, Anna & Savochkin, Andrei, 2013. "Dynamically stable preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 148(4), pages 1487-1508.
  45. Harrison, Glenn W. & Martínez-Correa, Jimmy & Swarthout, J. Todd, 2013. "Inducing risk neutral preferences with binary lotteries: A reconsideration," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 145-159.
  46. Simone Cerreia-Vioglio & Paolo Ghirardato & Fabio Maccheroni & Massimo Marinacci & Marciano Siniscalchi, 2011. "Rational preferences under ambiguity," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 341-375, October.
  47. Marc Fleurbaey & Stéphane Zuber, 2014. "Fair management of social risk," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14016, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  48. Sarin, Rakesh & Wakker, Peter P., 2000. "Cumulative dominance and probabilistic sophistication," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 191-196, September.
  49. Edi Karni, 2009. "A Theory of Bayesian Decision Making," Economics Working Paper Archive 550, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  50. Soo Chew & Richard Ebstein & Songfa Zhong, 2012. "Ambiguity aversion and familiarity bias: Evidence from behavioral and gene association studies," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-18, February.
  51. Sarin, R. & Wakker, P.P., 1996. "A Single-Stage Approach to Anscombe and Aumann's Expected Utility," Discussion Paper 1996-45, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  52. Antony Millner & Raphael Calel & David Stainforth & George MacKerron, 2013. "Do probabilistic expert elicitations capture scientists’ uncertainty about climate change?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 116(2), pages 427-436, January.
  53. Wang, Tan, 2003. "Conditional preferences and updating," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 286-321, February.
  54. Klaus Nehring, 2006. "Decision-Making in the Context of Imprecise Probabilistic Beliefs," Economics Working Papers 0034, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
  55. Kopylov, Igor, 2010. "Unbounded probabilistic sophistication," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 113-118, September.
  56. Simon Grant & Atsushi Kajii, 2005. "Probabilistically Sophisticated Multiple Priors," KIER Working Papers 608, Kyoto University, Institute of Economic Research.
  57. Chollete, Lor & Schmeidler, David, 2014. "Misspecification Aversion and Selection of Initial Priors," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2014/13, University of Stavanger.
  58. Lo, Kin Chung, 2011. "Possibility and permissibility," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 109-113, September.
  59. Sherrick, Bruce J., 2002. "The Accuracy Of Producers' Probability Beliefs: Evidence And Implications For Insurance Valuation," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 27(01), July.
  60. repec:dgr:kubcen:199645 is not listed on IDEAS
  61. Ghirardato, Paolo & Le Breton, Michel, 2000. "Choquet Rationality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 277-285, February.
  62. Ma, Chenghu, 2000. "Uncertainty aversion and rationality in games of perfect information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 451-482, March.
  63. Chenghu Ma, 2001. "A No-Trade Theorem under Knightian Uncertainty with General Preferences," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 173-181, December.
  64. Klaus Nehring, 2006. "Bernoulli Without Bayes: A Theory of Utility-Sophisticated Preferences under Ambiguity," Economics Working Papers 0072, Institute for Advanced Study, School of Social Science.
  65. Larry Epstein, 1997. "Uncertainty Aversion," Working Papers epstein-97-01, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  66. Grant, Simon & Chateauneuf, A. & Eichberger, J., 2002. "Choice under Uncertainty with the Best and Worst in Mind: Neo-additive Capacities," Working Papers 2002-10, Rice University, Department of Economics.
  67. Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew Postlewaite & David Schmeidler, 2004. "Rationality of Belief," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000690, UCLA Department of Economics.
  68. Luo, Xiao & Ma, Chenghu, 2003. ""Agreeing to disagree" type results: a decision-theoretic approach," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(8), pages 849-861, November.
  69. Chambers, Robert G & Grant, Simon & Polak, Ben & Quiggin, John, 2011. "A Two-Parameter Model of Dispersion Aversion," Risk and Sustainable Management Group Working Papers 151196, University of Queensland, School of Economics.
  70. Mark Machina, 2011. "Event-Separability in the Ellsberg urn," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 425-436, October.
  71. Eichberger, J. & Kelsey, D., 1996. "E-Capacities and the Ellsberg Paradox," Discussion Papers 96-13, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  72. Lo, Kin Chung, 2009. "Correlated Nash equilibrium," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 722-743, March.
  73. Ghossoub, Mario, 2011. "Towards a Purely Behavioral Definition of Loss Aversion," MPRA Paper 37628, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Mar 2012.
  74. repec:dgr:kubcen:2011117 is not listed on IDEAS
  75. Grant, Simon & Karni, Edi, 2004. "A theory of quantifiable beliefs," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(5), pages 515-546, August.
  76. Laurent Denant-Boèmont & Olivier l'Haridon, 2013. "La rationalité à l’épreuve de l’économie comportementale," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 201323, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
  77. ALLARD, Marie & BRONSARD, Camille & GOURIÉROUX Christian, 2003. "Aversion Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 2003-06, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    • ALLARD, Marie & BRONSARD, Camille & GOURIÉROUX, Christian, 2003. "Aversion Analysis," Cahiers de recherche 04-2003, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  78. Marciano Siniscalchi, . "Vector-Adjusted Expected Utility," Working Papers 191, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  79. Claudia Ravanelli & Gregor Svindland, 2014. "Comonotone Pareto optimal allocations for law invariant robust utilities on L 1," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 249-269, January.
  80. Mark J. Machina & David Schmeidler, 1994. "Bayes Without Bernoulli: Simple Conditions for Probabilistically Sophisticated Choice," Discussion Papers 1088, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  81. Kin Chung Lo, 1995. "Equilibrium in Beliefs Under Uncertainty," Working Papers ecpap-95-02, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  82. Bilgic, Taner, 1998. "Interval-valued preference structures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 162-183, February.
  83. Qu, Xiangyu, 2013. "Maxmin expected utility with additivity on unambiguous events," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 245-249.
  84. Mary Riddel & W. Shaw, 2006. "A theoretically-consistent empirical model of non-expected utility: An application to nuclear-waste transport," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 32(2), pages 131-150, March.
  85. Amit Kothiyal & Vitalie Spinu & Peter Wakker, 2014. "An experimental test of prospect theory for predicting choice under ambiguity," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 1-17, February.
  86. repec:dgr:uvatin:20140044 is not listed on IDEAS
  87. Wing-Keung Wong & Raymond H. Chan, 2005. "Prospect and Markowitz Stochastic Dominance," Monash Economics Working Papers 08/05, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  88. repec:dgr:kubcen:200184 is not listed on IDEAS
  89. Lo, Kin Chung, 2002. "Correlated equilibrium under uncertainty," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 183-209, November.
  90. Stahl, Dale O., 2000. "Rule Learning in Symmetric Normal-Form Games: Theory and Evidence," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 105-138, July.
  91. Halevy, Yoram, 2004. "The possibility of speculative trade between dynamically consistent agents," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 189-198, January.
  92. Biung-Ghi Ju, 2003. "Strategy-Proof Risk Sharing," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 200305, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2003.
  93. Aurélien Baillon & Han Bleichrodt & Umut Keskin & Olivier L'Haridon & Author-Name: Chen Li, 2013. "Learning under ambiguity: An experiment using initial public offerings on a stock market," Economics Working Paper Archive (University of Rennes 1 & University of Caen) 201331, Center for Research in Economics and Management (CREM), University of Rennes 1, University of Caen and CNRS.
  94. Zhijun Zhao, 2011. "Preference Relativity, Ambiguity and Social Welfare Evaluation," Working Papers 352011, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  95. Riddel, Mary C. & Shaw, W. Douglass, 2006. "A Theoretically-Consistent Empirical Non-Expected Utility Model of Ambiguity: Nuclear Waste Mortality Risk and Yucca Mountain," Pre-Prints 23964, Texas A&M University, Department of Agricultural Economics.
  96. Trautmann, S.T. & van de Kuilen, G., 2011. "Belief Elicitation : A Horse Race among Truth Serums," Discussion Paper 2011-117, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  97. Robert Nau, 2001. "De Finetti was Right: Probability Does Not Exist," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 89-124, December.
  98. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:4:y:2006:i:37:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
  99. Lahno, Amrei M., 2014. "Social anchor effects in decision-making under ambiguity," Discussion Papers in Economics 20960, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  100. Kin Chung Lo, 1995. "Extensive Form Games with Uncertainty Averse Players," Working Papers ecpap-95-03, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
  101. Carlin, Paul S., 1996. "Can the maximization principle be discarded? A comment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 351-353, March.
  102. Chambers, Christopher P. & Echenique, Federico, 2012. "When does aggregation reduce risk aversion?," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 582-595.
  103. Itzhak Gilboa & Andrew Postlewaite & David Schmeidler, 2004. "Rationality of Belief Or Why Bayesianism is neither necessary nor sufficient for rationality," PIER Working Paper Archive 04-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  104. Skiadas, Costis, 1997. "Subjective Probability under Additive Aggregation of Conditional Preferences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 242-271, October.
  105. Edi Karni, 2011. "A theory of Bayesian decision making with action-dependent subjective probabilities," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 125-146, September.
  106. Machina, Mark J, 2001. "Almost-Objective Uncertainty," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt3ps1k85f, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  107. Ulrich Schmidt & Horst Zank, 2011. "A Genuine Foundation for Prospect Theory," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 1114, Economics, The University of Manchester.
  108. Luciano Castro & Alain Chateauneuf, 2011. "Ambiguity aversion and trade," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 243-273, October.
  109. Tigran Melkonyan & Mark Pingle, 2008. "Ambiguity, Pessimism, and Religious Choice," Working Papers 08-002, University of Nevada, Reno, Department of Economics;University of Nevada, Reno , Department of Resource Economics.
  110. : Constantinos Antoniou & : Glenn W. Harrison & : Morten I. Lau & : Daniel Read, 2013. "Subjective Bayesian Beliefs," Working Papers wpn13-02, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  111. John Quiggin, 2001. "Production under Uncertainty and Choice under Uncertainty in the Emergence of Generalized Expected Utility Theory," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 125-144, December.
  112. Melkonyan, Tigran A., 2011. "The Effect of Communicating Ambiguous Risk Information on Choice," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 36(2), August.
  113. Willem Karel M. Brauers & Romualdas Ginevičius, 2009. "Robustness in regional development studies. The case of Lithuania," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 121-140, February.
  114. Ergin, Haluk & Gul, Faruk, 2009. "A theory of subjective compound lotteries," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(3), pages 899-929, May.
  115. Marc Fleurbaey & Stéphane Zuber, 2014. "Fair management of social risk," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00973480, HAL.
  116. Nakamura, Yutaka, 1995. "Probabilistically sophisticated rank dependent utility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(3-4), pages 441-447, June.
  117. Baillon, Aurélien & Driesen, Bram & Wakker, Peter P., 2012. "Relative concave utility for risk and ambiguity," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 75(2), pages 481-489.
  118. Itzhak Gilboa & Offer Lieberman & David Schmeidler, 2007. "On the Definition of Objective Probabilities by Empirical Similarity," Levine's Bibliography 843644000000000363, UCLA Department of Economics.
  119. Edi Karni, 2005. "A New Approach to Modeling Decision-Making under Uncertainty and Defining Subjective Probabilities," Economics Working Paper Archive 519, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
  120. Casadesus-Masanell, Ramon & Klibanoff, Peter & Ozdenoren, Emre, 2000. "Maxmin Expected Utility over Savage Acts with a Set of Priors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 35-65, May.
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