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Is Noise Trading Cancelled Out by Aggregation?

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  • Hongjun Yan

Abstract

Conventional wisdom suggests that investors' independent biases should cancel each other out and have little impact on equilibrium at the aggregate level. In contrast to this intuition, this paper analyzes models with biased investors and finds that biases often have a significant impact on the equilibrium even if they are independent across investors. First, independent biases a¿ect the equilibrium asset price if investor demand for the asset is a nonlinear function of the bias. Second, even if the demand function is linear in the bias, it may still have a significant impact on the equilibrium due to the fluctuation of the wealth distribution. An initial run-up of the stock price makes optimistic investors richer, which then further pushes the stock price up and leads to lower future returns. This effect can lead to price overshooting, i.e., a negative expected future return. Similarly, an initial drop of the stock price leads to higher future returns. Simple calibrations show that a modest amount of biases can have a large impact on the equilibrium.

Suggested Citation

  • Hongjun Yan, 2008. "Is Noise Trading Cancelled Out by Aggregation?," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2604, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2009.
  • Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:amz2604
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    Cited by:

    1. Cvitanic, Jaksa & Malamud, Semyon, 2011. "Price impact and portfolio impact," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 201-225, April.
    2. Wei Xiong & Hongjun Yan, 2010. "Heterogeneous Expectations and Bond Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, pages 1433-1466.
    3. He, Xue-Zhong & Shi, Lei, 2012. "Disagreement, correlation and asset prices," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 116(3), pages 512-515.
    4. Raman Uppal & Harjoat Bhamra, 2016. "Do Individual Behavioral Biases Affect Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy?," 2016 Meeting Papers 1358, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    5. Yang, Chunpeng & Li, Jinfang, 2013. "Investor sentiment, information and asset pricing model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 436-442.
    6. Roman Muraviev, 2013. "Market selection with learning and catching up with the Joneses," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 273-304, April.
    7. Yu, Jianfeng & Yuan, Yu, 2011. "Investor sentiment and the mean-variance relation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 367-381, May.
    8. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:504-512 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Xue-Zhong He & Lei Shi, 2012. "Disagreement in a Multi-Asset Market," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 357-373, September.
    10. Yang, Chunpeng & Zhang, Rengui, 2014. "Dynamic sentiment asset pricing model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 362-367.
    11. Yang, Chunpeng & Zhang, Rengui, 2013. "Sentiment asset pricing model with consumption," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 462-467.
    12. Shi, Lei, 2016. "Consumption-based CAPM with belief heterogeneity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 30-46.
    13. Liang, Hanchao & Yang, Chunpeng & Zhang, Rengui & Cai, Chuangqun, 2017. "Bounded rationality, anchoring-and-adjustment sentiment, and asset pricing," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 85-102.
    14. Yang, Chunpeng & Zhang, Rengui, 2013. "Dynamic asset pricing model with heterogeneous sentiments," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 248-253.
    15. Li, Jinfang, 2014. "Multi-period sentiment asset pricing model with information," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 118-130.
    16. Yang, Chunpeng & Li, Jinfang, 2014. "Two-period trading sentiment asset pricing model with information," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-7.
    17. He, Xue-Zhong & Shi, Lei, 2017. "Index portfolio and welfare analysis under heterogeneous beliefs," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 64-79.

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    Keywords

    Aggregation; bias; noise trading; behavioral finance;

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