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Simulating Real Estate in the Investment Portfolio: Model Uncertainty and Inflation Hedging

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  • William Goetzmann
  • Eduardas Valaitis

Abstract

Real estate is regarded as an inflation hedge, however the autocorrelation of property return indices and the autocorrelation of changes in the CPI pose serious problems of inference. In this paper we address these problems in two ways. First, we use robust methods to test of changes in the relationship between property returns and inflation. Second, we perform simulations of sample investment portfolios using vector autoregressions to study the ability of commercial and residential housing to hedge inflation. Despite the relatively short sample period available, we find that property is likely to hedge inflation well.

Suggested Citation

  • William Goetzmann & Eduardas Valaitis, 2006. "Simulating Real Estate in the Investment Portfolio: Model Uncertainty and Inflation Hedging," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2476, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2006.
  • Handle: RePEc:ysm:somwrk:amz2476
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    File URL: http://icfpub.som.yale.edu/publications/2476
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Baghestani, Hamid, 1992. "On the Formation of Expected Inflation under Various Conditions: Some Survey Evidence," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(2), pages 281-293, April.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr Eliasz, 2004. "Measuring the effects of monetary policy: a factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-03, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).
    3. Ali Anari & James Kolari, 2002. "House Prices and Inflation," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(1), pages 67-84.
    4. Ang, Andrew & Piazzesi, Monika, 2003. "A no-arbitrage vector autoregression of term structure dynamics with macroeconomic and latent variables," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 745-787, May.
    5. Aldrich, J., 1995. "Correlations genuine and spurious in Pearson and Yule," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 9502, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    6. Richard J. Barkham & Charles W. R. Ward, 1999. "Investor Sentiment and Noise Traders: Discount to Net Asset Value in Listed Property Companies in the U.K," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(2), pages 291-312.
    7. Fabio Milani & Francesco Belviso, 2003. "Structural Factor-Augmented VAR (SFAVAR)," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 278, Society for Computational Economics.
    8. W. B. Brueggeman & A. H. Chen & T. G. Thihodeau, 1984. "Real Estate Investment Funds: Performance and Portfolio Considerations," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 12(3), pages 333-354.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. William Goetzmann & Liang Peng & Jacqueline Yen, 2012. "The Subprime Crisis and House Price Appreciation," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 36-66, January.
    2. Marie Brière & Ombretta Signori, 2012. "Inflation-Hedging Portfolios : Economic Regimes Matter," Post-Print hal-01494498, HAL.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7744 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Spierdijk, Laura & Umar, Zaghum, 2015. "Stocks, bonds, T-bills and inflation hedging: From great moderation to great recession," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-37.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real Estate; Finance; Investment;

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