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TTIP und ihre Auswirkungen auf Österreich

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  • Fritz Breuss

Abstract

Mit einem umfassenden und in der Öffentlichkeit höchst umstrittenen Handels- und Investitionsabkommen (TTIP) wollen die EU und die USA die größte Freihandelszone der Welt errichten und damit Wachstum und Beschäftigung stimulieren. Zwar prognostizieren alle bisherigen TTIP-Studien positive Handels-, Wohlfahrts- und Beschäftigungseffekte für beide Vertragsparteien (allerdings in ungleichem Ausmaß), doch treten diese nicht sofort ein, sondern erst sehr langfristig. Die TTIP ist daher zur Überwindung der gegenwärtigen Krise nicht geeignet. Die geschätzten Liberalisierungseffekte divergieren erheblich je nach Methode: Während allgemeine Gleichgewichtsmodelle (CGE-Modelle) sehr geringe Wohlfahrtseffekte ermitteln (½% bis 1% des BIP), versprechen Schätzungen mit Gravitationsmodellen außerordentlich hohe Gewinne (Steigerung der Realeinkommen in der EU um 5% und in den USA um 13,4%). Allerdings dürfte es zu starken (und politisch brisanten) Verlusten an Handel und Wohlfahrt in Drittstaaten (Handelsumlenkungen) kommen. Für Österreich wird eine langfristig realisierbare BIP-bzw. Wohlfahrtszunahme um 1,7% (CGE-Modell) bis 2,7% bzw. 2.9% (Gravitationsmodell) geschätzt. Das Inkrafttreten eines TTIP-Abkommens dürfte sich wegen vieler parlamentarischer Hürden (es handelt sich um ein gemischtes Abkommen) verzögern.

Suggested Citation

  • Fritz Breuss, 2014. "TTIP und ihre Auswirkungen auf Österreich," FIW Policy Brief series 024, FIW.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsr:pbrief:y:2014:i:024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    2. Joshua J. Lewer & Hendrik Van den Berg, 2003. "How Large Is International Trade’s Effect on Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(3), pages 363-396, July.
    3. Raza, Werner & Grumiller, Jan & Taylor, Lance & Tröster, Bernhard & von Arnim, Rudi, 2014. "ASSESS_TTIP: Assessing the claimed benefits of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership," Policy Notes 10/2014, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE).
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    Cited by:

    1. Julia Grübler & Oliver Reiter, 2020. "Greater than the sum of its parts? Does Austria profit from a widening network of EU free trade agreements?," FIW Research Reports series VII-004, FIW.
    2. Fritz Breuss, 2020. "Pro-Globalization via FTAs in Times of COVID-19," WIFO Working Papers 617, WIFO.
    3. Julia Grübler & Oliver Reiter, 2020. "Greater than the sum of its parts? Does Austria profit from a widening network of EU free trade agreements?," FIW Research Reports series VII-004, FIW.
    4. Julia Grübler & Oliver Reiter, 2020. "Greater than the Sum of its Parts? How does Austria Profit from a Widening Network of EU Free Trade Agreements?," wiiw Working Papers 186, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    5. Harald Oberhofer, 2014. "Die Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der österreichischen Exportwirtschaft: Die Rolle der KMUs," FIW Policy Brief series 025, FIW.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    TTIP; Trade Liberalization; Economic Integration; Globalization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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