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Inflation, Stock Market and Long-Term Investors: Real Effects of Changing Demographics

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  • : Arie E. Gozluklu
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    File URL: http://web.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/financeRepec/Repec/2012/Gozluklu2012ISMLTI.pdf
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    Paper provided by Warwick Business School, Finance Group in its series Working Papers with number wpn12-06.

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    Date of creation: 2012
    Handle: RePEc:wbs:wpaper:wpn12-06
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    Web page: http://web.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/financeRepec/
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    1. Luis M. Viceira & Adi Sunderam & John Y. Campbell, 2008. "Inflation Bets or Deflation Hedges? The Changing Risks of Nominal Bonds," 2008 Meeting Papers 355, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. : Carol A. Favero & Arie E. Gozluklu & Andrea Tamoni, 2010. "Demograhic Trends, the Dividend-Price Ratio and the Predictability of Long-Run Stock Market Returns," Working Papers wpn10-02, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
    3. Chao Wei, 2007. "Inflation and Stock Prices: No Illusion," 2007 Meeting Papers 565, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Donald B. Keim & Robert F. Stambaugh, "undated". "Predicting Returns in the Stock and Bond Markets," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 15-85, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    5. Pierluigi Balduzzi & Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Silverio Foresi, 1997. "The Central Tendency: A Second Factor in Bond Yields," NBER Working Papers 6325, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Campbell, John & Thompson, Samuel P., 2008. "Predicting Excess Stock Returns Out of Sample: Can Anything Beat the Historical Average?," Scholarly Articles 2622619, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    7. John Y. Campbell & John H. Cochrane, 1994. "By force of habit: a consumption-based explanation of aggregate stock market behavior," Working Papers 94-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
    9. Fama, Eugene F & Bliss, Robert R, 1987. "The Information in Long-Maturity Forward Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 680-692, September.
    10. John H. Cochrane & Monika Piazzesi, 2002. "Bond Risk Premia," NBER Working Papers 9178, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1991. "Yield Spreads and Interest Rate Movements: A Bird's Eye View," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 495-514.
    12. John C. Driscoll & Aart C. Kraay, 1998. "Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation With Spatially Dependent Panel Data," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 549-560, November.
    13. Lieven Baele, 2010. "The Determinants of Stock and Bond Return Comovements," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(6), pages 2374-2428, June.
    14. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
    15. John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2004. "Demography and the Long Run Behavior of the Stock Market," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000643, UCLA Department of Economics.
    16. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    17. Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1994. "Baby Boom, Population Aging, and Capital Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(2), pages 165-202, April.
    18. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    19. Whitney K. Newey & Kenneth D. West, 1986. "A Simple, Positive Semi-Definite, Heteroskedasticity and AutocorrelationConsistent Covariance Matrix," NBER Technical Working Papers 0055, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2291-2304, November.
    21. Newey, W.K. & West, K.D., 1992. "Automatic Lag Selection in Covariance Matrix Estimation," Working papers 9220, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    22. Lettau, Martin & Ludvigson, Sydney, 1999. "Consumption, Aggregate Wealth and Expected Stock Returns," CEPR Discussion Papers 2223, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    23. John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings and Expected Dividends," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 858, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    24. Martin Lettau & Jessica A. Wachter, 2009. "The Term Structures of Equity and Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 14698, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Eugene F. Fama, 2006. "The Behavior of Interest Rates," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 19(2), pages 359-379.
    26. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(2), pages 639-668.
    27. Campbell, J.Y. & Ammer, J., 1991. "What Moves The Stock And Bond Markets? A Variance Decomposition For Long- Term Asset Returns," Papers 127, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
    28. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    29. Andrew Ang & Angela Maddaloni, 2003. "Do Demographic Changes Affect Risk Premiums? Evidence from International Data," NBER Working Papers 9677, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Randolph B. Cohen & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2005. "Money Illusion in the Stock Market: The Modigliani-Cohn Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 11018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    31. Viceira, Luis M., 2012. "Bond risk, bond return volatility, and the term structure of interest rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 97-117.
    32. Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," NBER Working Papers 12109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    33. Joel Lander & Athanasios Orphanides & Martha Douvogiannis, 1997. "Earnings forecasts and the predictability of stock returns: evidence from trading the S&P," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1997-6, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    34. Miguel A. Ferreira & Pedro Santa-Clara, 2008. "Forecasting Stock Market Returns: The Sum of the Parts is More than the Whole," NBER Working Papers 14571, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    35. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
    36. Goyal, Amit, 2004. "Demographics, Stock Market Flows, and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 39(01), pages 115-142, March.
    37. Giannetti, Mariassunta & Koskinen, Yrjö, 2003. "Investor Protection and the Demand for Equity," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 526, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 14 May 2003.
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