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On the Evolution of Credibility and Flexible Exchange Rate Target Zones

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Listed:
  • Mark Salmon
  • Giampiero Gallo
  • Renzo Avesani

Abstract

This paper considers a new approach to the optimal management and analysis of exchange rate target zones by regarding the operation of a target zone as a dynamic signalling game between the monetary authorities and the financial markets. A Sequential Open Loop (Feedback) policy of sterilized intervention is proposed that depends critically on the evolution of the policy-maker's credibility as opposed to the open loop precommitment strategy that has been implemented, for instance, in the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the EMS and in the Bretton Woods system. The width of the target zone and realignments are in turn determined optimally given the policy-maker's credibility. A commitment to this form of flexible target zone is shown through simulation to provide substantial stabilization for the exchange rate while retaining considerable flexibility and robustness in response to shocks.
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Suggested Citation

  • Mark Salmon & Giampiero Gallo & Renzo Avesani, 1999. "On the Evolution of Credibility and Flexible Exchange Rate Target Zones," Working Papers wp99-11, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbs:wpaper:wp99-11
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    File URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/research/wfri/rsrchcentres/ferc/wrkingpaprseries/fwp99-11.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1991. "The Simplest Test of Target Zone Credibility," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 655-665, September.
    2. Edison Tse, 1974. "Adaptive Dual Control Methods," NBER Chapters,in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 1, pages 65-84 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February.
    4. Williamson, John, 1987. "Exchange rate flexibility, target zones, and policy coordination," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 15(12), pages 1437-1443, December.
    5. Paul R. Krugman, 1991. "Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(3), pages 669-682.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F02 - International Economics - - General - - - International Economic Order and Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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