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Informational differences and learning in an asset market with boundedly rational agents

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  • Pietro Dindo
  • Cees Diks

Abstract

The price formation mechanism in an asset market with boundedly rational agents can be viewed as a filter acting on incoming news about economic fundamentals such as future dividends. Here we study the properties of an asset pricing market filter obtained under some simple behavioral assumptions, and examine the resulting dynamical structure of the fluctuations of the market price around the time-varying underlying fundamental reference price. The starting point is an asset pricing model in which agents can choose among two different degrees of information on fundamentals. At the same time agents are also learning the growth rate of the dividend generating process. This leads to prices that deviate substantially and persistently from the fundamental value in the short run but stay close to it in the long run. In particular, prices follow a time-varying nonlinear mean reverting dynamics which we show to be related to agents' interaction triggered by informational differences.
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  • Pietro Dindo & Cees Diks, 2007. "Informational differences and learning in an asset market with boundedly rational agents," Working Papers wp07-06, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbs:wpaper:wp07-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Panchenko, Valentyn & Gerasymchuk, Sergiy & Pavlov, Oleg V., 2013. "Asset price dynamics with heterogeneous beliefs and local network interactions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 2623-2642.
    2. Goldbaum, David & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2010. "Learning and adaptation's impact on market efficiency," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 635-653, December.
    3. Troy Tassier, 2013. "Handbook of Research on Complexity, by J. Barkley Rosser, Jr. and Edward Elgar," Eastern Economic Journal, Palgrave Macmillan;Eastern Economic Association, vol. 39(1), pages 132-133.
    4. Cars H. Hommes, 2009. "Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research on Complexity, chapter 5 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. De Kamps, Marc & Ladley, Daniel & Simaitis, Aistis, 2014. "Heterogeneous beliefs in over-the-counter markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 50-68.
    6. De Grauwe, Paul & Rovira Kaltwasser, Pablo, 2012. "Animal spirits in the foreign exchange market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1176-1192.
    7. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    8. Antonio Doria, Francisco, 2011. "J.B. Rosser Jr. , Handbook of Research on Complexity, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, UK--Northampton, MA, USA (2009) 436 + viii pp., index, ISBN 978 1 84542 089 5 (cased)," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 196-204, April.
    9. Kaltwasser, Pablo Rovira, 2010. "Uncertainty about fundamentals and herding behavior in the FOREX market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(6), pages 1215-1222.
    10. Berardi, Michele, 2011. "Fundamentalists vs. chartists: Learning and predictor choice dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 776-792, May.
    11. Xue, Yi & Gençay, Ramazan, 2012. "Hierarchical information and the rate of information diffusion," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 1372-1401.
    12. Dieci, Roberto & Westerhoff, Frank, 2010. "Heterogeneous speculators, endogenous fluctuations and interacting markets: A model of stock prices and exchange rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 743-764, April.
    13. Ahmad Naimzada & Marina Pireddu, 2014. "Real and financial interacting oscillators: a behavioral macro-model with animal spirits," Working Papers 268, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised Feb 2014.

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