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Price and Wealth Dynamics in a Speculative Market with Generic Procedurally Rational Traders

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Listed author(s):
  • Gulio Bottazzi
  • Mikhail Anufriev

Abstract

An agent-based model of a simple financial market with arbitrary number of traders having relatively general behavioral specifications is analyzed. In a pure exchange economy with two assets, riskless and risky, trading takes place in discrete time under endogenous price formation setting. Traders' demands for the risky asset are expressed as fractions of their individual wealths, so that the dynamical system in terms of wealth and return is obtained. Agents' choices, i.e. investment fractions, are described by means of the generic smooth functions of an infinite information set. The choices can be consistent with (but not limited to) the solutions of the expected utility maximization problems. A complete characterization of equilibria is given. It is shown that irrespectively of the number of agents and of their behavior, all possible equilibria belong to a one-dimensional "Equilibrium Market Line". This geometric tool helps to illustrate possibility of different phenomena, like multiple equilibria, and also can be used for comparative static analysis. The stability conditions of equilibria are derived for general model specification and allow to discuss the relative performances of different strategies and the selection principle governing market dynamics.

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File URL: http://www2.warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/wbs/research/wfri/rsrchcentres/ferc/wrkingpaprseries/fwp06-02.pdf
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Paper provided by Warwick Business School, Finance Group in its series Working Papers with number wp06-02.

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Date of creation: 2006
Handle: RePEc:wbs:wpaper:wp06-02
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  1. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
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  4. C. Chiarella & X-Z. He, 2001. "Asset price and wealth dynamics under heterogeneous expectations," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(5), pages 509-526.
  5. Chiarella, Carl & Dieci, Roberto & Gardini, Laura, 2006. "Asset price and wealth dynamics in a financial market with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1755-1786.
  6. Levy, Moshe & Levy, Haim & Solomon, Sorin, 1994. "A microscopic model of the stock market : Cycles, booms, and crashes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 103-111, May.
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  8. Anufriev, Mikhail & Bottazzi, Giulio & Pancotto, Francesca, 2006. "Equilibria, stability and asymptotic dominance in a speculative market with heterogeneous traders," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1787-1835.
  9. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942.
  10. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
  11. Hens, Thorsten & Schenk-Hoppe, Klaus Reiner, 2005. "Evolutionary stability of portfolio rules in incomplete markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 43-66, February.
  12. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O. O., 2005. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 7-42, February.
  13. Levy, Haim & Levy, Moshe & Solomon, Sorin, 2000. "Microscopic Simulation of Financial Markets," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 1, number 9780124458901.
  14. Zschischang, Elmar & Lux, Thomas, 2001. "Some new results on the Levy, Levy and Solomon microscopic stock market model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 291(1), pages 563-573.
  15. Alvaro Sandroni, 2000. "Do Markets Favor Agents Able to Make Accurate Predicitions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1303-1342, November.
  16. Hommes, Cars H., 2006. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics,in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 23, pages 1109-1186 Elsevier.
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Cited by:

  1. in ׳t Veld, Daan, 2016. "Adverse effects of leverage and short-selling constraints in a financial market model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 45-67.
  2. Mikhail Anufriev, 2008. "Wealth-driven competition in a speculative financial market: examples with maximizing agents," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(4), pages 363-380.
  3. Sandrine Jacob Leal, 2015. "Fundamentalists, chartists and asset pricing anomalies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(11), pages 1837-1850, November.

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