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Field and Natural Experiments in Migration

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  • Mckenzie,David J.
  • Yang,Dean

Abstract

Many research and policy questions surrounding migration are causal questions. What causespeople to migrate What are the consequences of migration for the migrants, their families, and their communitiesAnswering these questions requires dealing with the self-selection inherent in migration choices. Field andnatural experiments offer methodological approaches that enable answering these causal questions. This paperdiscusses the key conceptual and logistical issues that face applied researchers when applying these methods to the studyof migration, as well as providing guidance for practitioners and policymakers in assessing the credibilityof causal claims. For randomized experiments, this includes providing a framework for thinking through what can berandomized; discussing key measurement and design issues that arise from issues such as migration being a rare event,and in measuring welfare changes when people change locations; as well as discussing ethical issues that canarise. The paper then outlines what makes for a good natural experiment in the context of migration, and discusses theimplications of recent econometric work for the use of difference-indifferences, instrumental variables (andespecially shift-share instruments), and regression discontinuity methods in migration research. A key lessonfrom this recent work is that it is not meaningful to talk about “the” impact of migration, but rather impacts arelikely to be heterogeneous, affecting both the validity and interpretation of causal estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Mckenzie,David J. & Yang,Dean, 2022. "Field and Natural Experiments in Migration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10250, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:10250
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    File URL: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099443212012229265/pdf/IDU0f6457fcb092920464c08c02066bb4a4a86ef.pdf
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • C93 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Field Experiments
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C26 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Instrumental Variables (IV) Estimation

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