IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/vpi/wpaper/e07-47.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the Present Value Model in a Cross Section of Stocks

Author

Listed:
  • Richard Startz
  • Kwok Ping Tsang

Abstract

We construct a cross-section of stock prices and their corresponding present values of future cash flows. A regression of present value on the initial stock price should have a slope coefficient equal to 1.0. For short horizons, this is a cross-section version of checking the random walk model and the present value model holds up well. In contrast, using three different samples that go as far back as 1926, the present value model is rejected decisively at moderate and long horizons. We can rule out the possibility that the failure of the present value relationship is due to a misunderstanding of the dividend process. The remaining possibilities are either that agents do not discount very far into the future in a manner consistent with the present value model, or that models of discount rates are too limited to allow the present value model to be a good fit to the data for most firms. We find that the present value works much better, albeit still imperfectly, for larger firms. We also find that stocks that appear on the exchanges for fewer years than longer-lasting stocks deviate even more from the present value model. Our results can be interpreted as a cross-section version of the variance-bounds test, with the result that prices are very much more variable than they ought to be.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard Startz & Kwok Ping Tsang, 2014. "On the Present Value Model in a Cross Section of Stocks," Working Papers e07-47, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:vpi:wpaper:e07-47
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://repec.econ.vt.edu/Papers/Tsang/PinaCrossSection03_2014_v05.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2014
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tijs, Stef & Borm, Peter & Lohmann, Edwin & Quant, Marieke, 2011. "An average lexicographic value for cooperative games," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 213(1), pages 210-220, August.
    2. Aumann, Robert J. & Maschler, Michael, 1985. "Game theoretic analysis of a bankruptcy problem from the Talmud," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 195-213, August.
    3. Rosenthal, Edward C., 2013. "Shortest path games," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 224(1), pages 132-140.
    4. Philippe Robert-Demontrond & R. Ringoot, 2004. "Introduction," Post-Print halshs-00081823, HAL.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    present value model; stock price; discount rate;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vpi:wpaper:e07-47. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Djavad Salehi-Isfahani). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/decvtus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.