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On the Role of Pension Systems in Economic Development and Demographic Transition

In this paper we examine whether di¤erent pension systems a¤ect the set of initial human capital conditions capturing an economy in a low steady state equilibrium income. To analyze this problem, we employ a three period over- lapping generations model where fertility and investments into the children?s education are chosen endogenously. We show that education investments are higher and start at lower income levels for a pay-as-you-go pension system econ- omy compared to an informal, fertility related one. The income threshold needed to escape the ?poverty trap? is therefore lower if a pay-as-you-go pension sys- tem is employed. Moreover, unless the economy is caught in the low income steady state, a pay-as-you-go pension system supports higher equilibrium in- come. We further highlight that pension systems in?uence the timing of de- mographic transition through their di¤erent valuation of fertility, contributing to the explanation for observed di¤erences between developed and developing countries.

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File URL: http://homepage.univie.ac.at/Papers.Econ/RePEc/vie/viennp/vie0812.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Vienna, Department of Economics in its series Vienna Economics Papers with number 0812.

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Date of creation: Jun 2008
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Handle: RePEc:vie:viennp:0812
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.univie.ac.at/vwl

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  1. Johannes Holler, 2007. "Pension Systems and their Influence on Fertility and Growth," Vienna Economics Papers 0704, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
  2. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2004. "The pay-as-you-go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(7-8), pages 1335-1357, July.
  3. Michele Boldrin & Mariacristina De Nardi & Larry E. Jones, 2005. "Fertility and Social Security," Staff Report 359, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  4. David de la Croix & Matthias Doepke, 2001. "Inequality and Growth: Why Differential Fertility Matters," UCLA Economics Working Papers 803, UCLA Department of Economics.
  5. van Groezen, Bas & Leers, Theo & Meijdam, Lex, 2003. "Social security and endogenous fertility: pensions and child allowances as siamese twins," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 233-251, February.
  6. Gary S. Becker & Kevin M. Murphy & Robert Tamura, . "Human Capital, Fertility, and Economic Growth," University of Chicago - Population Research Center 90-5a, Chicago - Population Research Center.
  7. Azariadis, Costas & Drazen, Allan, 1990. "Threshold Externalities in Economic Development," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(2), pages 501-26, May.
  8. Kremer, Michael, 1993. "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(3), pages 681-716, August.
  9. Brezis, Elise S & Krugman, Paul R & Tsiddon, Daniel, 1993. "Leapfrogging in International Competition: A Theory of Cycles in National Technological Leadership," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1211-19, December.
  10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:10:y:2006:i:5:p:1-7 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
  12. Ronald Lee, 2003. "The Demographic Transition: Three Centuries of Fundamental Change," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 167-190, Fall.
  13. Tabata, Ken, 2003. "Inverted U-shaped fertility dynamics, the poverty trap and growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 241-248, November.
  14. Sinn, Hans-Werner, 2004. "The pay-as-you-go pension system as fertility insurance and an enforcement device," Munich Reprints in Economics 19606, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  15. Berthold U. Wigger, 1999. "Pay-as-you-go financed public pensions in a model of endogenous growth and fertility," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 625-640.
  16. Kazuhiro Yamamoto & Ken Tabata, 2006. "Sectorial sift, inverted U-shaped fertility dynamics, and growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 10(5), pages 1-7.
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