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The competitive environment hypothesis revisited: Nonlinearity, nonstationrity and profit persistence

Much empirical lierature dealing with the competitive environment hypothesis tends to find nonstationary behaviour and very high persistence in time series of company profits. We model profit time series using a simple time series model that allows for nonstationary behavior over subsamples, but overall mean reversion. Using a new dataset constisting of profits for more than 150 US companies over a time period of 50 years, we present statistical evidence that the high persistence observed in profits when using linear autoregressive models is often due to the misspecification of the data generating process.

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File URL: http://homepage.univie.ac.at/Papers.Econ/RePEc/vie/viennp/vie0316.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Vienna, Department of Economics in its series Vienna Economics Papers with number 0316.

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Date of creation: Oct 2003
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Handle: RePEc:vie:viennp:0316
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.univie.ac.at/vwl

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  1. Caner,M. & Hansen,B.E., 1998. "Threshold autoregression with a near unit root," Working papers 27, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  2. Yoosoon Chang, 2000. "Nonlinear IV Unit Root Tests in Panels with Cross-Sectional Dependency," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-85, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  3. Mehmet Caner & Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "Threshold Autoregression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1555-1596, November.
  4. Geroski, Paul A & Jacquemin, Alexis, 1988. "The Persistence of Profits: A European Comparison," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 98(391), pages 375-89, June.
  5. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
  6. P. Geroski, 1998. "An Applied Econometrician's View of Large Company Performance," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 271-294, June.
  7. Pasaran, M.H. & Im, K.S. & Shin, Y., 1995. "Testing for Unit Roots in Heterogeneous Panels," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9526, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  8. Basci Erdem & Caner Mehmet, 2005. "Are Real Exchange Rates Nonlinear or Nonstationary? Evidence from a New Threshold Unit Root Test," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(4), pages 1-21, December.
  9. Goddard, J. A. & Wilson, J. O. S., 1999. "The persistence of profit: a new empirical interpretation," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 663-687, July.
  10. Dixit, A., 1988. "Entry And Exit Decisions Under Uncertainty," Papers 91, Princeton, Department of Economics - Financial Research Center.
  11. Glen, Jack & Lee, Kevin & Singh, Ajit, 2001. "Persistence of profitability and competition in emerging markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 247-253, August.
  12. Mueller, Dennis C, 1977. "The Persistence of Profits above the Norm," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 44(176), pages 369-80, November.
  13. Taylor, Alan M, 2001. "Potential Pitfalls for the Purchasing-Power-Parity Puzzle? Sampling and Specification Biases in Mean-Reversion Tests of the Law of One Price," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 473-98, March.
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