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Credits, Crises, and Capital Controls: A Microeconomic Analysis

We analyze the behavior of foreign banks who sequentially provide credit to finance projects in an emerging market. The foreign banks are exposed to both micro-economic risks and the macro-economic risk of a currency crisis, and there are no bailout guarantees. Nevertheless, we show that it is often the case that banks provide too much credit too easily and that this behavior may precipitate the onset of a currency crisis. We demonstrate how the imposition of capital controls in the form of taxes and subsidies on foreign investment may improve the situation. Whereas most of the literature explains currency crises as the consequence of causes that lie within the debtor countries, the general message of our paper may be interpreted as placing part of the blame on the international financial community as well.

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File URL: http://homepage.univie.ac.at/Papers.Econ/RePEc/vie/viennp/vie0103.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Vienna, Department of Economics in its series Vienna Economics Papers with number 0103.

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Date of creation: Jan 2001
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Handle: RePEc:vie:viennp:0103
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.univie.ac.at/vwl

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  1. Ronald I. McKinnon & Huw Pill, 1998. "International Overborrowing: A Decomposition of Credit and Currency Risks," Working Papers 98004, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
  2. Martin J Osborne & Ariel Rubinstein, 2009. "A Course in Game Theory," Levine's Bibliography 814577000000000225, UCLA Department of Economics.
  3. Giancarlo Corsetti & Paolo Pesenti & Nouriel Roubini, 1998. "Paper tigers? A model of the Asian crisis," Research Paper 9822, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  4. Eichengreen, Barry & Mody, Ashoka, 1999. "Lending booms, reserves, and the sustainability of short-term debt - inferences from the pricing of syndicated bank loans," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2155, The World Bank.
  5. Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 2010. "A theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom and cultural change as informational Cascades," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1193, David K. Levine.
  6. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram G. Rajan, . "Banks, Short Term Debt and Financial Crises: Theory, Policy Implications and Applications."," CRSP working papers 518, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  7. Kaminsky, Graciela & Lizondo, Saul & Reinhart, Carmen M., 1997. "Leading indicators of currency crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1852, The World Bank.
  8. Joseph P. Hughes & Loretta J. Mester, 1997. "Bank capitalization and cost: evidence of scale economies in risk management and signaling," Working Papers 96-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  9. Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 1999. "Liquidity Crises in Emerging Markets: Theory and Policy," Documentos de Trabajo 59, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  10. Aaron Tornell, 1999. "Common Fundamentals in the Tequila and Asian Crises," NBER Working Papers 7139, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Jeffrey D. Sachs & Aaron Tornell & Andrés Velasco, 1996. "Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The Lessons from 1995," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 147-216.
  12. Frank Heinemann, 2000. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-Fulfilling Currency Attacks: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(1), pages 316-318, March.
  13. Dani Rodrik & Andres Velasco, 1999. "Short-Term Capital Flows," NBER Working Papers 7364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2003. "Hot money," Staff Report 228, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  15. Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2000. "Capital Market Liberalization, Economic Growth, and Instability," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1075-1086, June.
  16. Zvika NEEMAN & Gerhard O. OROSEL, 1997. "Herding and the Winner's Curse in Markets with Sequential Bids," Vienna Economics Papers vie9711, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
  17. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2000. "Financial crises as herds," Working Papers 600, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  18. Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 1998. "The Asian liquidity crisis," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 98-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  19. Jason Furman & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1998. "Economic Crises: Evidence and Insights from East Asia," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 1-136.
  20. Morris, Stephen & Shin, Hyun Song, 1997. "Unique Equilibrium in a Model of Self-fulfilling Currency Attacks," CEPR Discussion Papers 1687, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  21. Rajan, Raghuram G, 1992. " Insiders and Outsiders: The Choice between Informed and Arm's-Length Debt," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(4), pages 1367-400, September.
  22. Abhijit V. Banerjee, 1992. "A Simple Model of Herd Behavior," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(3), pages 797-817.
  23. Sebastian Edwards, 1999. "How Effective are Capital Controls?," NBER Working Papers 7413, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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