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Climate Change and Infrastructure Investment in Developing Countries: The Case of Mozambique


  • Arndt, Channing
  • Strzepek, Kenneth
  • Thurlow, James


Climate change may damage road infrastructure to the potential detriment of economic growth, particularly in developing countries. To quantitatively assess climate changeâ..s consequences, we construct a climate-infrastructure model based on stressor-response relationships and link this to a recursive dynamic economy-wide modelto estimate and compare road damages to other climate change impact channels. We apply this framework to Mozambiqueand simulate four future climate scenarios. Our results indicate that climate change through 2050 is likely to place a drag on economic growth and development prospects. The economic implications of climate change appear to become more pronounced from about 2030. Nevertheless, the implications are not so strong as to drastically diminish development prospects. An adaptation policy of gradual evolution towards road designs that accommodate higher temperatures and follows rainfall trends (wetter or dryer) improves outcomes. At the same time, a generalized policy of upgrading all roads does not appear to be merited at this time. Our findings suggest that impact assessments should include the damages on long-run assets, such as infrastructure, imposed by climate change.

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  • Arndt, Channing & Strzepek, Kenneth & Thurlow, James, 2011. "Climate Change and Infrastructure Investment in Developing Countries: The Case of Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series 092, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2011-92

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Fan, Shenggen & Zhang, Linxiu & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2004. "Reforms, Investment, and Poverty in Rural China," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 52(2), pages 395-421, January.
    2. Shenggen Fan & Xiaobo Zhang, 2008. "Public Expenditure, Growth and Poverty Reduction in Rural Uganda," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 20(3), pages 466-496.
    3. Shenggen Fan & Peter Hazell, 2001. "Returns to Public Investments in the Less-Favored Areas of India and China," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1217-1222.
    4. John G. Fernald, 1999. "Roads to Prosperity? Assessing the Link between Public Capital and Productivity," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 619-638, June.
    5. Graciela Chichilnisky (ed.), 2010. "The Economics of Climate Change," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, volume 0, number 13045.
    6. Arndt, Channing & Strzepeck, Kenneth & Tarp, Finn & Thurlow, James & Fant, Charles & Wright, Len, 2010. "Adapting to Climate Change An Integrated Biophysical and Economic Assessment for Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series 101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    7. Tarp, Finn & Arndt, Channing & Jensen, Henning Tarp & Robinson, Sherman & Heltberg, Rasmus, 2002. "Facing the development challenge in Mozambique: an economywide perspective," Research reports 126, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    8. Channing Arndt & M. Azhar Hussain & E. Samuel Jones & Virgulino Nhate & Finn Tarp & James Thurlow, 2011. "Explaining Poverty Evolution: The Case of Mozambique," WIDER Working Paper Series 017, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    9. Dillon, Andrew & Sharma, Manohar & Zhang, Xiaobo, 2011. "Estimating the impact of rural investments in Nepal," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 250-258, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Taylor, Michael A.P. & Philp, Michelle L., 2015. "Investigating the impact of maintenance regimes on the design life of road pavements in a changing climate and the implications for transport policy," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 117-135.

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    climate change; infrastructure vulnerability; productivity; economic growth; Mozambique;

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