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An evaluation of labour market forecasts by type of education and occupation for 2002

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  • Dupuy Arnaud

    (ROA wp)

Abstract

1 Introduction1.1 BackgroundThe Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market generates everytwo years medium-term forecast of the labour market prospects of typesof education and occupations. The first forecast were generated in 1989,after a pilot in 1987, under a contract from the Ministry of Education andScience. The project intended in first instance to cover the developmentof an information system of use especially for providing educational andvocational guidance to apprentices and students in secondary and highereducation. Gained experience has shown that the information provided byROA’s forecast was also of primary interest for other labour market agents,namely policy makers and employers.The labour market information provided by ROA’s forecast are used variousinformation products at the national level, for instance by the NationalCareer Guidance Information Centre (LDC) and the Centre for Informationon Higher Education for Consumer and Expert (CHOICE). The first forecastwere used to supplement the labour market module I see!. This wasa computerised information system, established by LDC, bringing togetherinformation from many sources which might be relevant for the choice of a careeror course of study. Vocational guidance by teachers and others involvedin assisting students to make these choices could call up this information viatheir personal computer and obtain, along with other information on studyand vocational choices, an idea of the labour market consequences of thechoices which were available. The LDC brought out another informationsystem, ‘Traject’, which also makes use of labour market information providedby ROA. ROA’s forecast have also been one of the foundations of theLDC’s series of brochures for study and vocational guidance, and both the‘Keuzegids Hoger Onderwijs’ and the ‘Studiekeuze-Informatiedatabase’ publishedby CHOICE. In addition in their own database, the Central for Workand Income (CWI) used the current data and the forecast of the informationsystem to formulate policies on employment in general and vocationalguidance for the unemployed in particular.

Suggested Citation

  • Dupuy Arnaud, 2005. "An evaluation of labour market forecasts by type of education and occupation for 2002," ROA Working Paper 002, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
  • Handle: RePEc:unm:umarow:2005002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Myra Wieling & Lex Borghans, 2001. "Descrepancies between Supply and Demand and Adjustment Processes in the Labour Market," LABOUR, CEIS, vol. 15(1), pages 33-56, March.
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    3. Evans, Graham J & Lindley, Robert M, 1973. "The Use of RAS and Related Models in Manpower Forecasting," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 13(1-2), pages 53-73.
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    5. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
    6. Borghans L. & Grip A. de & Delmee J. & Loo J. van & Matheeuwsen A. & Smits W., 1997. "Methodiek arbeidsmarktprognoses en -indicatoren 1997-2002," ROA Working Paper 006, Maastricht University, Research Centre for Education and the Labour Market (ROA).
    7. Hans Heijke & Astrid Matheeuwsen & Ed Willems, 2003. "Clustering Educational Categories in a Heterogeneous Labour Market," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 89-108.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gács, János & Bíró, Anikó, 2013. "A munkaerő-piaci előrejelzések nemzetközi gyakorlata. Áttekintés a kvantitatív módszerekről és felhasználásukról
      [International experience in forecasting labour markets. Overview of quantitative me
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(2), pages 134-163.

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    Keywords

    education; training and the labour market;

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