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Does the open limit order book matter in explaining long run volatility?

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  • Roberto Pascual
  • David Veredas

Abstract

This paper evaluates the informational content of an open limit order book by studying its role in explaining long run volatility. We separate liquidity-driven (transitory) volatility from information-driven (long run) volatility using a dynamic state-space co-integration model for ask and bid quotes. We report that changes in immediacy costs precede posterior fluctuations in long run volatility even after controlling for the incoming order flow. The book is less informative for large-caps than for small-caps. Consistently with previous studies, the book beyond the best quotes adds explanatory power to the best quotes. Finally, the explanatory power of the book decreases with the time resolution of the analysis.
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Suggested Citation

  • Roberto Pascual & David Veredas, 2010. "Does the open limit order book matter in explaining long run volatility?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/136192, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  • Handle: RePEc:ulb:ulbeco:2013/136192
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    Cited by:

    1. Hautsch, Nikolaus & Hess, Dieter & Veredas, David, 2011. "The impact of macroeconomic news on quote adjustments, noise, and informational volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2733-2746, October.
    2. Abad, David & Pascual, Roberto, 2015. "The friction-free weighted price contribution," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 226-239.
    3. Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur & Fryzlewicz, Piotr & Rheinländer, Thorsten, 2015. "Relative liquidity and future volatility," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 25-48.
    4. Pascual, Roberto & Pascual-Fuster, Bartolomé, 2014. "The relative contribution of ask and bid quotes to price discovery," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 129-150.
    5. Jain, Pawan & Jiang, Christine, 2014. "Predicting future price volatility: Empirical evidence from an emerging limit order market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 72-93.
    6. Rannou, Yves, 2017. "Liquidity, information, strategic trading in an electronic order book: New insights from the European carbon markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 779-808.
    7. Roberto Pascual & David Veredas, 2009. "What pieces of limit order book information matter in explaining order choice by patient and impatient traders?," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 527-545.
    8. Duong, Huu Nhan & Kalev, Petko S., 2014. "Anonymity and the Information Content of the Limit Order Book," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 205-219.
    9. Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur & Fryzlewicz, Piotr & Rheinlander, Thorsten, 2015. "Relative liquidity and future volatility," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62181, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Valenzuela, Marcela & Zer, Ilknur & Fryzlewicz, Piotr & Rheinlander, Thorsten, 2014. "Relative Liquidity and Future Volatility," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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