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Evaluating CO2 reduction policy portfolios in the automotive sector

  • van der Vooren


  • Eric Brouillat

This paper presents an agent-based model that simulates the market for passenger cars in which firm strategies, market structure, consumer choices and policy instruments co-evolve. The main contribution of the paper is to show that this type of simulation model can be used to explore interactions and additional effects when different policy measures are combined to reduce CO2 emissions. We show the impact of policy portfolios on economic and technological decisions of firms, on consumer choice and on global CO2 emissions. In particular, we show how the dynamics of the system can lead to a technological lock-in into internal combustion technologies and demonstrate the ways in which policy instruments can help to break this lock-in. We show that policy portfolios can be relevant to achieve the best of different stand-alone policy measures, but not necessarily. Ex ante evaluation is therefore recommended.

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Paper provided by Utrecht University, Department of Innovation Studies in its series Innovation Studies Utrecht (ISU) working paper series with number 13-01.

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Date of creation: Feb 2013
Date of revision: Feb 2013
Handle: RePEc:uis:wpaper:1301
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  1. Daron Acemoglu & Philippe Aghion & Leonardo Bursztyn & David Hemous, 2010. "The Environment and Directed Technical Change," Working Papers 2010.93, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  2. Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Romain Duval & Alessandra Sgobbi & Massimo Tavoni, 2009. "The Role of R&D and Technology Diffusion in Climate Change Mitigation: New Perspectives Using the Witch Model," Working Papers 2009.14, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
  3. Veugelers, Reinhilde, 2012. "Which policy instruments to induce clean innovating?," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(10), pages 1770-1778.
  4. Malte Schwoon, 2005. "Simulating the Adoption of Fuel Cell Vehicles," Working Papers FNU-59, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Feb 2006.
  5. Eric Brouillat & Vanessa Oltra, 2012. "Dynamic efficiency of extended producer responsibility instruments in a simulation model of industrial dynamics," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(4), pages 971-1009, August.
  6. Thiel, Christian & Perujo, Adolfo & Mercier, Arnaud, 2010. "Cost and CO2 aspects of future vehicle options in Europe under new energy policy scenarios," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(11), pages 7142-7151, November.
  7. Kelvin J. Lancaster, 1966. "A New Approach to Consumer Theory," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 74, pages 132.
  8. Vanessa OLTRA (E3i-IFReDE-GRES) & Maïder SAINT-JEAN (E3i-IFReDE-GRES), 2006. "Variety of technological trajectories in low emission vehicles (LEVs): a patent data analysis," Cahiers du GRES (2002-2009) 2006-20, Groupement de Recherches Economiques et Sociales.
  9. Taylor, Alex M.K.P., 2008. "Science review of internal combustion engines," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(12), pages 4657-4667, December.
  10. Malerba, Franco & Nelson, Richard & Orsenigo, Luigi & Winter, Sidney, 2001. "Competition and industrial policies in a 'history friendly' model of the evolution of the computer industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 19(5), pages 635-664, April.
  11. Offer, G.J. & Howey, D. & Contestabile, M. & Clague, R. & Brandon, N.P., 2010. "Comparative analysis of battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell and hybrid vehicles in a future sustainable road transport system," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 24-29, January.
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